'Trump seeks advantages in Scranton, saying "They probably would have given Biden one more vote"'
The region has been increasingly leaning towards a redder hue.
With Biden absent from the Democratic lineup, Trump is optimistic about increasing his support in Northeast Pennsylvania, where the president was raised and where Republican prospects have brightened.
At a large sports complex near the President Biden Expressway, Trump shared the economic messages his campaign and local Republican activists believe resonate in a region grappling with industrial decline. His promises to cut energy costs in half and to let workers “frack, frack, frack” elicited enthusiastic responses from attendees, as did his calls for eliminating taxes on tips, Social Security, and overtime pay. He also warned union workers that they would “not have any jobs” unless they voted for him.
Trump has previously tried to pry Scranton and Lackawanna County away from Biden and the Democrats during two election cycles but was unsuccessful. Nonetheless, Republicans are optimistic that without Biden on the ballot, Trump can make significant gains in this critical battleground state. They believe Vice President Kamala Harris does not possess the same appeal among conservative Democrats who have long been loyal to “Scranton Joe.”
“This area is still predominantly Catholic, still predominantly conservative. We have what we used to call Reagan Democrats, or late Gov. [Robert] Casey Democrats, who were either pro-gun or pro-life Democrats, who have always voted Democratic,” observed Vince Galko, a Scranton-area Republican strategist.
“They probably would have given Biden one more vote,” Galko remarked. “I’m not sure they’re going to give that vote to Harris.”
In polling, Trump and Harris are nearly neck-and-neck in Pennsylvania. The region surrounding Scranton has a significant population of working-class white voters who have increasingly aligned with Trump and the GOP in recent elections. The traditional coal area, once a bastion of labor and manufacturing, has seen a decline in the Democratic Party's fortunes as these key industries have waned.
Luzerne County, adjacent to Lackawanna County, supported former President Barack Obama twice but significantly swung to Trump by 19 percentage points in 2016. Biden managed to reduce Trump’s winning margin there to just 14 points in 2020, which helped him secure the overall victory in the state. In Lackawanna County, Biden won by 8 points, increasing Hillary Clinton's 4-point margin from 2016.
However, earlier this year, Republicans overtook Democrats in registered voter numbers in Luzerne County, according to state records. While Democrats still lead in Lackawanna County by about 27,000 voters, the number of registered Republicans has risen since last year.
The Trump campaign is now focusing on voters in the region who supported Obama, then Trump, and subsequently Biden. Trump held a rally in nearby Wilkes-Barre in mid-August, and his team insists that Biden's absence from the race offers an opportunity to win over enough working-class voters to close the gap in Lackawanna County.
To support their case, they pointed to a Teamsters survey in Pennsylvania that showed Trump leading Harris 65 percent to 31 percent, alongside a broader poll indicating rank-and-file union members preferred Trump. Trump highlighted these numbers at the rally, although some within the union cast doubt on the poll's methodology, noting that the influential labor group ultimately chose not to endorse either candidate.
Responding to Trump’s rally, Harris’ campaign criticized him for discussing his “personal grievances” and “bragging about his plan to raise taxes by $4,000 a year while killing American jobs.”
“That doesn’t sound like a recipe for success in winning over Scranton,” said Matt Corridoni, spokesperson for the Harris campaign. “Vice President Harris is outlining real plans to boost U.S. manufacturing and create thousands of jobs, lower costs for families, and open pathways to the middle class for voters without college degrees, while Donald Trump is rambling about windmills.”
In discussing energy production, Trump accused Harris of backtracking on her stance regarding fracking “for an election” and criticized her previous support for the Green New Deal. He dismissed wind power as “bullshit” and promised to empower energy workers in the state to “drill, drill, drill.” He also pledged to halt plant closures and reiterated his calls to eliminate taxes on tips or overtime pay.
Despite his ongoing focus on Biden, who suspended his reelection campaign nearly three months ago, Trump oscillated between mocking the president's physical and mental capabilities and offering patronizing compliments, stating, “He looks better now than I’ve ever seen him look.”
Additionally, Trump attempted to create tension between Biden and Harris, alleging that the president “hates” his vice president and suggesting there would be “an explosion before the election with them.”
However, it was Trump's economic message that seemed to resonate most with the attendees.
“This valley used to be full of factories,” shared Susanne Green, a lifelong Democrat who transitioned to the Republican party. “There’s no factories anymore. Everybody’s out of work. And it’s been like that for generations.”
After becoming more involved in Trump’s campaign following his shooting incident in July, Green volunteered at her first Trump rally on Wednesday, saying, “It’s really a toss up here in our county.”
Charlie Spano, a veteran GOP activist and former Scranton mayoral candidate, noted that Trump could appeal to disenchanted Democrats who are “pissed off that Biden got ditched” and are considering whether to support the Republican nominee or stay home.
Spano also assessed that Harris lacks the same appeal as Biden in Scranton and criticized her decision to choose Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz over Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro as her running mate.
“Putting Shapiro on the ticket would go a long way toward keeping Pennsylvania blue,” Spano remarked. “And she blew it.”
Ramin Sohrabi for TROIB News