The Amazing, Life-Changing ‘Black Swan’ Events That Might Transform Existence in 2025
Fifteen futurists, foreign policy analysts, and various forecasters offer a range of provocative potential scenarios for the upcoming year.
TroibNews 
The year 2024 frequently felt chaotic, marked by assassination attempts on Donald Trump, conflict in the Middle East, and the unraveling of Joe Biden's reelection campaign. However, there is little reason to believe that 2025 will be any more tranquil.
This expectation is not only due to the likelihood that Trump will lead a tumultuous second term in the White House, reminiscent of his first. The coming year will also almost certainly bring unforeseen events that will catch many off guard.
To explore potential "Black Swan" occurrences that could reshape American society in 2025, we consulted various experts, including futurists, scientists, and foreign policy analysts. We asked them to identify unpredictable and unlikely developments that could significantly disrupt life as we know it.
The experts presented a range of possibilities, from threats posed by artificial intelligence to devastating epidemics, while also considering avenues for positive transformation in certain global regions.
Although it is uncertain which scenarios might unfold in 2025, dismissing them out of hand would be unwise. Last year's similar exercise yielded some eerily accurate predictions.
**‘The Largest Cyberattack in History’ BY GARY MARCUS**
Gary Marcus’ latest book, *Taming Silicon Valley*, was recommended by *The New Yorker* in 2024.
2025 may witness the largest cyberattack to date, temporarily dismantling significant segments of global infrastructure, either for ransom or to manipulate financial markets. Cybercrime is already a massive, multi-trillion-dollar issue that victims often prefer not to discuss—it's even larger than the global drug trade. Several factors could exacerbate this crisis in 2025.
Firstly, generative AI technology, which is becoming more affordable and widespread, serves as an ideal asset for cybercriminals. Despite its inaccuracies, it excels in generating convincing text and deepfake videos at minimal costs, enabling criminals to extend their range of attacks. Recently, a cyber gang defrauded a Hong Kong bank of $25 million.
Secondly, large language models are vulnerable to jailbreaking and various types of “prompt-injection attacks,” for which no viable solutions currently exist.
Thirdly, the use of generative AI to produce code is increasingly common; however, many developers lack a deep understanding of the auto-generated code, leading to potential security vulnerabilities.
Finally, the new U.S. administration appears poised to deregulate significantly, which could lower oversight and encourage a culture of neglect among federal employees. This reduced focus on enforcement could leave critical infrastructure open to increasingly audacious cyberattacks.
**‘A Secret Deal to Stop Iran From Developing Nuclear Weapons’ BY MATHEW BURROWS**
Mathew Burrows is Counselor to Stimson’s Executive Office and leads the Strategic Foresight Hub at the Stimson Center. He formerly served as Counselor in the National Intelligence Council.
Both Russia and the United States are wary of a nuclear-armed Iran. Though Russia attempted to assist Joe Biden in reviving the international nuclear deal by proposing an interim arrangement involving limited sanctions relief in exchange for some restrictions on Iran’s nuclear aspirations, the offer was rejected. Shortly thereafter, Russian troops invaded Ukraine.
Currently, Russia finds itself increasingly reliant on Iran for drones in its Ukraine conflict. Domestically, Vladimir Putin is receiving criticism over Russia's waning influence in the Middle East. Should the U.S. conduct an attack on Iran, it would illustrate Russia's declining power.
Trump, meanwhile, faces pressure from his Republican allies to endorse an Israeli strike against Iran to thwart its nuclear ambitions. However, he has been cautioned by his ally, Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, who fears Iranian retaliation against Saudi oil installations in the event of an Israeli attack, which could drive energy prices higher.
Late one evening, Putin reaches out to Trump via a secure line to propose a covert agreement to halt Iran’s nuclear weapon development. Under Putin's proposal, Iran would implement a five-year moratorium on its pursuit of nuclear arms if Trump can dissuade Israel from launching military action. Trump's successful negotiation with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu would hinge on MBS' commitment to normalize relations with Israel if he refrains from attacking Iran. What Trump remains unaware of is that Putin has already consented to supply Tehran with advanced air defense systems in the event of an Israeli strike.
**‘Secessionists Are on the March’ BY AMY ZALMAN**
Amy Zalman is a strategist and futurist, formerly the CEO of the World Future Society and chair of information integration at the U.S. National War College.
In his first year in office, President Trump supports the Greater Idaho movement's request to transfer 15 counties from Oregon to Idaho. His impromptu endorsement, casually shared at a press conference, energizes residents in eastern rural Oregon keen to escape the liberal dominance of the urban west.
As Trump's comment circulates among Greater Idaho proponents and finds its way into right-wing social media, it becomes a rallying cry for sympathetic legislators and raises alarms for those unacquainted with secessionism or who had never taken it seriously. Suddenly, secessionist movements begin to gain traction.
Empowered by Trump's tacit approval, leaders of other secessionist campaigns organize public demonstrations. Within weeks, protests branded "New State or No State!" emerge in various state capitals, driven by groups aiming to separate from their states—or for states like Texas and California, to detach from the country altogether. Illinois' desire to exist without Chicago and Weld County Colorado's aspiration to join Wyoming become rallying points. Concurrently, counter-rallies featuring "All States, Every State" signs spring up around these gatherings.
As events unfold, armed white supremacist groups and self-appointed sovereign citizen vigilantes inject themselves into the growing tension. It becomes tragically predictable when both an armed secessionist and an All States counter-protester are killed during clashes with police using rubber bullets at a rally in upstate New York.
While the President has largely shifted his focus to other matters, the parameters of secession and border dissolution have gained an unsettling legitimacy at both state and national levels, leading to new referendums and task forces anticipated in the coming year.
**‘The Outbreak Soon Reaches Epidemic Proportions’ BY GEORGES C. BENJAMIN**
Georges C. Benjamin, MD, is executive director of the American Public Health Association.
A small rural community experiences an outbreak of an infectious disease in a poorly vaccinated population. Initial symptoms mimic the flu—fever, headache, muscle aches, and sore throat. Initially, local officials suspect a seasonal flu outbreak, but lab tests for typical viral illnesses like flu, COVID-19, and RSV return negative.
Health officials eventually trace patient zero to an individual returning from abroad, where an undiagnosed disease has already killed hundreds. The state health department investigates, followed by the CDC. However, local authorities hesitate to implement traditional public health measures—such as contact tracing or quarantining exposed individuals—fearing backlash from the community, which has recently limited the health department's powers to act on infectious outbreaks.
Consequently, public health officials find themselves impotent. Misinformation floods social media, with some misleading posts alleging the disease spreads through mail, a narrative amplified by foreign adversaries. As the contagion spreads, several deaths are reported. Within weeks, the outbreak reaches neighboring communities, infecting a major city and two additional states, with the death toll rising significantly. Even as public health measures remain unaddressed, schools and businesses shut down due to staff shortages amid a worsening crisis.
Officials identify the outbreak's causative agent as one for which an experimental vaccine exists, yet deploying it requires emergency authorization. The administration grapples with internal debates on whether to proceed with the vaccine, while pharmaceutical companies express reluctance to produce treatments without guarantees of legal protection and financial support. The FDA is paralyzed, as its advisory committees for vaccine review have been disbanded.
Consequently, the outbreak escalates to epidemic levels across the U.S., prompting travel bans on American citizens from other nations. The economy suffers as goods and services become scarce, leading to conditions akin to the COVID-19 crisis, with thousands losing their lives.
**‘A Trump and Xi Alliance Will Emerge’ BY NANCY QIAN**
Nancy Qian is the James J. O’Connor Professor at the Kellogg School of Management at Northwestern University and co-director of the Global Poverty Research Lab.
Trump's first term began with a China-U.S. trade war, and leading up to his second term, he intensifies his anti-China rhetoric, claiming he will impose a 60% tariff on Chinese imports. Such aggressive posturing against Xi Jinping, who insists he will protect China’s interests, raises concerns about escalating tensions. Yet, it is also plausible that a Trump-Xi alliance might emerge.
In contrast to the first Trump-Xi era characterized by fierce competition, the current environment offers more opportunities for cooperation. During 2016-2020, China projected aspirations to surpass the U.S. economy while asserting its political ideology's superiority. Recent challenges—including economic fallout from strict COVID lockdowns, real estate crises, governmental debt, and an aging population—have tempered such claims.
Shifts in U.S. priorities are evident. In the 2024 campaign, Trump vowed to end the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war that began during his prior term. Both Trump and Xi, having shown a personal affinity for Vladimir Putin, may collaborate to facilitate a peace arrangement benefiting all three leaders. Additionally, as Trump pledges to limit immigration—central to his electoral platform—he must consider whether imposing high tariffs on Chinese goods that could raise consumer prices is feasible. In prioritizing immigration over trade tariffs, Trump could find common ground with Xi for negotiations.
Thus, 2025 might present an unexpected opportunity for Trump and Xi to recognize their shared interests.
**‘A Two-State Solution’ BY JOHN MCLAUGHLIN**
John McLaughlin has served as acting director and deputy director of the CIA and now teaches at Johns Hopkins University.
The interconnectedness of current global events renders surprises more likely than they have been in recent years. Prepare for numerous minor disruptions—perhaps aptly termed "Black Cygnets."
The ongoing war in Ukraine serves as a nexus for a chain of potential developments. Had Putin not invaded Ukraine, he might not find himself collaborating with North Korea, Iran wouldn’t be forging plans to establish drone production in Russia, and China's partnership with Russia would likely lack the current depth. Without these alliances, the so-called Axis of Autocracy would not exist. However, if 2025 brings about a negotiated termination of the Ukraine war—an event difficult to predict—it could set off unforeseen consequences in North Korea, Iran, and China. North Korea, for instance, may recall its thousands of troops to the peninsula, now emboldened by its combat experiences.
Perhaps the most unexpected scenario could unfold in the Middle East, involving momentum towards a two-state solution to the enduring Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Although routinely advocated by Western officials, the feasibility of this solution appears exceedingly low in the near term. Such progress would require an Israeli government willing to marginalize hardline politicians and dismantle numerous West Bank settlements, reminiscent of the proposals presented by former Prime Minister Ehud Barak during the failed Camp David negotiations in 2000.
Palestinians would need to shed their current leadership and unify under a new representative capable of engaging in meaningful negotiations. Agreement on Gaza's reconstruction and governance would also be essential. A concerted push from significant Arab governments, particularly Saudi Arabia and the UAE, would be necessary. Given the improbability of these events occurring simultaneously, the prospect of a two-state resolution tops my list of potential Black Swans.
**‘Market Crash Triggers a Global Panic’ BY AMY WEBB**
Amy Webb is the CEO of Future Today Institute and a professor of strategic foresight at NYU Stern.
Amid efforts to deregulate and downsize government, President Trump's technology advisors deprioritize scenario planning. With the election behind them, malicious actors turn their attention to financial markets in 2025.
Using sophisticated AI to analyze vast amounts of market data, financial reports, and economic indicators, these actors also monitor social media platforms like X and Reddit to gauge public sentiment. This AI identifies vulnerabilities, targeting companies with shaky financials or negative public perceptions susceptible to market turmoil. Misinformation then takes center stage: rumors about corporate leadership, fabricated stories about recalls, and false evidence of fraud are disseminated.
Before executing a coordinated attack, AI generates millions of scenarios to determine the optimal timing and channels for misinformation dissemination. This campaign instigates an artificial market panic, fueled by high-frequency trading executed with extraordinary precision, drawing in hedge funds and other stakeholders. The combination of advanced technology and lax regulatory scrutiny overwhelms the Trump administration, which dismisses the turmoil as “a little nonsense.”
As the panic ripples through global markets, uncertainty grips investors, leading to copycat attacks on exchanges in London and Tokyo. Whispers circulate about a far-left tech militia orchestrating these events, intended to undermine Trump through the vulnerability of his wealth.
**‘Climate Action Becomes the Norm’ BY KATHARINE HAYHOE**
Katharine Hayhoe is a distinguished professor at Texas Tech University and chief scientist at The Nature Conservancy, authoring *Saving Us: A Climate Scientist’s Case for Hope and Healing in a Divided World*.
Irrespective of Donald Trump's return to the presidency, action to address the climate crisis accelerates across the nation.
In the backdrop, the U.S. has transitioned drastically since the 1980s, when approximately three billion-dollar weather disasters occurred annually. By 2023, that number ballooned to 28 such disasters, with 2024 witnessing two massive hurricanes overwhelming the southeastern United States in just two weeks, fueled by record-warm ocean temperatures. Extreme weather has touched approximately 90% of Americans, alongside widespread repercussions.
As the dangers from climate change and the benefits of climate solutions become more evident, bipartisan support grows for action. The Inflation Reduction Act has spurred unprecedented investments in clean energy, with 85% of that funding flowing into Trump-supporting counties. This momentum is difficult to reverse; recently, 18 House Republicans expressed support for critical provisions of the IRA. Recent electoral outcomes further reflect a shift in attitudes, with voters approving 13 separate climate and conservation initiatives at the state and local levels.
Public opinion appears to be approaching a tipping point, where climate action becomes commonplace. Against the odds, 2025 could emerge as a pivotal year for this transformative shift.
**‘Unexpected Geopolitical Alliances and Realignments’ BY BRYNDAN D. MOORE**
Bryndan D. Moore is an engineer and host of *The Black Futurist* podcast.
Three key scenarios are pivotal to consider:
Firstly, envision the sudden emergence of Artificial Super Intelligence and the advancement of quantum computing as early as 2025. This technological evolution could catalyze substantial GDP growth across various industries, benefiting both rural and urban innovators. More importantly, such a development could lead to unexpected geopolitical alliances and shifts in global relationships, particularly with respect to the Middle East, Europe, and a productivity boost in Africa and India.
Secondly, consider the potential for seismic shifts in the Middle East. It’s possible that Trump could negotiate an end to hostilities in regions like Gaza, Syria, and southern Lebanon, paving the way for democratic progress in Syria and stabilizing Lebanon. This would hinge on intricate international negotiations and a unified commitment among involved parties to pursue peace—admittedly a tremendous challenge, but one that could fundamentally reshape the Middle Eastern geopolitical landscape.
Lastly, we must acknowledge vulnerabilities in global infrastructure presented by risks from cyberattacks, natural disruptions, or solar phenomena. Such events might cripple energy and communication networks, affecting everything from satellite operations to transportation systems worldwide. The interdependence of modern infrastructure means that disruptions could have far-reaching economic and social consequences.
My analysis emphasizes the importance of mental preparedness for whatever the future might bring, prioritizing readiness in the face of uncertainty.
**‘South Korea’s Secret Nuclear Weapons Program’ BY S. NATHAN PARK**
S. Nathan Park is an attorney based in Washington and a non-resident fellow at the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft.
A shocking nuclear test on the Korean Peninsula stuns the world—not from North Korea, but from South Korea. President Lee Jae-myung announces that South Korea is now a nuclear power and invokes Article X of the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons to withdraw from the treaty.
The secret nuclear program, which began under former President Yoon Suk-yeol—who was impeached and imprisoned—has continued under Lee's administration after he unearthed the initiative. In precedent, the United States would have identified and nipped such a program in the bud. However, the Trump administration's purge of the State Department and CIA undercuts such oversight—an outcome Trump seems to applaud. He refers to South Korea's "big beautiful bomb" as evidence of the country taking serious measures against North Korea.
With U.S. support faltering, a domino effect occurs in East Asia, as Japan and Taiwan promptly announce their own nuclear programs. The technology barrier is no issue for these nations. As key Asian countries abandon the Non-Proliferation Treaty, this disintegration undermines a crucial pillar of the post-WWII world order. The era of mutually assured destruction reemerges.
**‘The American Military Moves Into the Unvaccinated Age’ BY JACOB SOLL**
Jacob Soll is a professor of history, philosophy, and accounting at the University of Southern California and the author of *Free Market: The History of an Idea*.
On January 22nd, just two days post-inauguration, the Secretary of Defense announces that vaccinations will no longer be mandatory for the military, whether against COVID-19 or anything else. While servicemen are free to get vaccinated, the government will not cover vaccines that Robert F. Kennedy Jr.—with backing from allies at the CDC, FDA, and NIH—deems unsafe.
At a Texas dairy farm, a virulent H1N1 bird flu strain jumps from cows to farm workers, leading to outbreaks at Fort Cavazos military base. The strain causes acute respiratory failure, resulting in numerous fatalities among both workers and soldiers, yet the government opts for silence. The CDC refuses to confirm that the deaths stem from H1N1, diverging from military doctors advocating for swift vaccination. The flu spreads unchecked across the nation and the world.
Foreign governments react. Militaries from Mexico to China, East Asia, and Europe initiate vaccination drives, expressing frustration as U.S. military installations become epicenters for flu outbreaks. International calls for preventive measures and vaccines go unanswered, leading to faltering military collaboration. As the outbreak spirals over the following month, military leadership warns that American forces are becoming severely compromised by illness. One general declares that flu poses a greater threat to American security than China, triggering Trump's ire and a call for the general's court-martial.
As the situation worsens, countries such as China, India, and Russia embark on successful vaccination campaigns, while the American military struggles. A vaccinated and militarizing Europe advocates for the expulsion of U.S. troops, catalyzing a new security landscape as capital flows to healthier havens.
**‘The People of Belarus Could See Freedom’ BY EVELYN FARKAS**
Evelyn Farkas is the executive director of the McCain Institute at Arizona State University and formerly served as deputy assistant secretary of Defense for Russia, Ukraine, and Eurasia.
The citizens of Belarus may successfully overturn Aleksandr Lukashenko's regime. Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya, the elected president-in-exile, encourages Belarusian citizens to prepare for a moment of uprising, sensing vulnerabilities in the Russian government due to setbacks in its Ukraine offensive and the compounding challenges facing Vladimir Putin.
It's feasible to envision Putin making concessions and potentially ceding Ukrainian territory, or even witnessing Ukraine gain NATO membership or bilateral treaty protection from the U.S. A negative outcome for Putin in Ukraine could precipitate a crisis for his own rule, enabling the Belarusian populace to seize their chance at liberation.
**‘Loss of Power Will Fundamentally Upend American Life’ BY MICHELLE LI**
Michelle Li is the founder and CEO of Clever Carbon, which enhances carbon literacy and founded a non-profit organization focused on climate advocacy.
A fundamental change in energy security could spark a significant Black Swan event in 2025. As AI advancements continue, cryptocurrency gains traction, and digital consumption surges, it's evident that energy demands will skyrocket. This surge will lead to increased emissions and exacerbate risks associated with energy security and grid failures, driven by extreme weather events.
Cuba's energy crisis, triggered by outdated infrastructure and worsened by natural disasters, serves as a cautionary tale. Over 70% of U.S. transmission lines and transformers are over 25 years old, designed for a time of moderate energy demands. Compounding this is the ongoing risk of cyberattacks on critical infrastructure, from water systems to energy providers.
At its core lies a national security risk. A significant power outage would leave counties, cities, and the country at the mercy of cybercriminals targeting health care and financial systems. A loss of electricity could drastically reshape American life, spurring urgent and chaotic political reactions. Consequently, energy security might represent the ultimate Black Swan event for 2025.
**‘The Temptation to Reach for the Nuclear Toolbox May Be Too Hard to Resist’ BY JEFF GREENFIELD**
Jeff Greenfield is a contributing writer at PMG Magazine, a five-time Emmy-winning television analyst, and a published author on politics.
The upcoming year promises a range of scenarios now appearing more plausible than ever. Here are three significant possibilities:
The collapse of checks and balances could emerge as Republican senators receive strong indications from Trump to overlook their constitutional obligations in confirming his more contentious nominees. Senators like Tommy Tuberville have argued that it is not their role to scrutinize nominees. MAGA loyalists could threaten primary challenges against any senators who dare to assert their prerogatives, suggesting a larger erosion of legislative control and oversight.
Crossing the nuclear "red line" becomes an ever-present concern. Recent discussions surrounding low-yield tactical nuclear weapons illustrate an increased likelihood of battlefield deployment. Russian media have been vocal about the potential justification of nuclear responses to setbacks in Ukraine. If nuclear states like Russia, China, and North Korea launch aggressive actions against their neighbors and encounter resistance, the urge to resort to nuclear capabilities may become irresistible.
The digital landscape remains susceptible. In 2023, ransomware attacks on major corporations and local governments cost the U.S. an estimated $40 billion. The potential devastation from a comprehensive cyberattack crippling the power grid or disrupting nationwide communications could result in losses—financial, health, and otherwise—that are incalculable.
**‘Decisive Breakthrough in Quantum Computing’ BY AZIZ HUQ**
Aziz Huq teaches law at the University of Chicago and is the author of *The Collapse of Constitutional Remedies*.
The predictive power of science fiction often illuminates truths obscured by everyday life. Recent advancements in quantum computing, first heralded in China and then by Google, indicate that imminent breakthroughs could render existing cryptographic safeguards ineffective, threatening a wide array of personal and corporate data protections.
If a major development in quantum computing occurs at Tsinghua University in late 2025, it could be weaponized amid ongoing trade tensions, eroding fundamental privacy measures across American society. In a world where trust has decayed, both individuals and nations might retreat into isolation, reflecting the grim realities presented in dystopian fiction. Ultimately, the understated warnings of speculative fiction resonate profoundly because they lie close to the realm of possibility.
Thomas Evans contributed to this report for TROIB News
This expectation is not only due to the likelihood that Trump will lead a tumultuous second term in the White House, reminiscent of his first. The coming year will also almost certainly bring unforeseen events that will catch many off guard.
To explore potential "Black Swan" occurrences that could reshape American society in 2025, we consulted various experts, including futurists, scientists, and foreign policy analysts. We asked them to identify unpredictable and unlikely developments that could significantly disrupt life as we know it.
The experts presented a range of possibilities, from threats posed by artificial intelligence to devastating epidemics, while also considering avenues for positive transformation in certain global regions.
Although it is uncertain which scenarios might unfold in 2025, dismissing them out of hand would be unwise. Last year's similar exercise yielded some eerily accurate predictions.
**‘The Largest Cyberattack in History’ BY GARY MARCUS**
Gary Marcus’ latest book, *Taming Silicon Valley*, was recommended by *The New Yorker* in 2024.
2025 may witness the largest cyberattack to date, temporarily dismantling significant segments of global infrastructure, either for ransom or to manipulate financial markets. Cybercrime is already a massive, multi-trillion-dollar issue that victims often prefer not to discuss—it's even larger than the global drug trade. Several factors could exacerbate this crisis in 2025.
Firstly, generative AI technology, which is becoming more affordable and widespread, serves as an ideal asset for cybercriminals. Despite its inaccuracies, it excels in generating convincing text and deepfake videos at minimal costs, enabling criminals to extend their range of attacks. Recently, a cyber gang defrauded a Hong Kong bank of $25 million.
Secondly, large language models are vulnerable to jailbreaking and various types of “prompt-injection attacks,” for which no viable solutions currently exist.
Thirdly, the use of generative AI to produce code is increasingly common; however, many developers lack a deep understanding of the auto-generated code, leading to potential security vulnerabilities.
Finally, the new U.S. administration appears poised to deregulate significantly, which could lower oversight and encourage a culture of neglect among federal employees. This reduced focus on enforcement could leave critical infrastructure open to increasingly audacious cyberattacks.
**‘A Secret Deal to Stop Iran From Developing Nuclear Weapons’ BY MATHEW BURROWS**
Mathew Burrows is Counselor to Stimson’s Executive Office and leads the Strategic Foresight Hub at the Stimson Center. He formerly served as Counselor in the National Intelligence Council.
Both Russia and the United States are wary of a nuclear-armed Iran. Though Russia attempted to assist Joe Biden in reviving the international nuclear deal by proposing an interim arrangement involving limited sanctions relief in exchange for some restrictions on Iran’s nuclear aspirations, the offer was rejected. Shortly thereafter, Russian troops invaded Ukraine.
Currently, Russia finds itself increasingly reliant on Iran for drones in its Ukraine conflict. Domestically, Vladimir Putin is receiving criticism over Russia's waning influence in the Middle East. Should the U.S. conduct an attack on Iran, it would illustrate Russia's declining power.
Trump, meanwhile, faces pressure from his Republican allies to endorse an Israeli strike against Iran to thwart its nuclear ambitions. However, he has been cautioned by his ally, Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, who fears Iranian retaliation against Saudi oil installations in the event of an Israeli attack, which could drive energy prices higher.
Late one evening, Putin reaches out to Trump via a secure line to propose a covert agreement to halt Iran’s nuclear weapon development. Under Putin's proposal, Iran would implement a five-year moratorium on its pursuit of nuclear arms if Trump can dissuade Israel from launching military action. Trump's successful negotiation with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu would hinge on MBS' commitment to normalize relations with Israel if he refrains from attacking Iran. What Trump remains unaware of is that Putin has already consented to supply Tehran with advanced air defense systems in the event of an Israeli strike.
**‘Secessionists Are on the March’ BY AMY ZALMAN**
Amy Zalman is a strategist and futurist, formerly the CEO of the World Future Society and chair of information integration at the U.S. National War College.
In his first year in office, President Trump supports the Greater Idaho movement's request to transfer 15 counties from Oregon to Idaho. His impromptu endorsement, casually shared at a press conference, energizes residents in eastern rural Oregon keen to escape the liberal dominance of the urban west.
As Trump's comment circulates among Greater Idaho proponents and finds its way into right-wing social media, it becomes a rallying cry for sympathetic legislators and raises alarms for those unacquainted with secessionism or who had never taken it seriously. Suddenly, secessionist movements begin to gain traction.
Empowered by Trump's tacit approval, leaders of other secessionist campaigns organize public demonstrations. Within weeks, protests branded "New State or No State!" emerge in various state capitals, driven by groups aiming to separate from their states—or for states like Texas and California, to detach from the country altogether. Illinois' desire to exist without Chicago and Weld County Colorado's aspiration to join Wyoming become rallying points. Concurrently, counter-rallies featuring "All States, Every State" signs spring up around these gatherings.
As events unfold, armed white supremacist groups and self-appointed sovereign citizen vigilantes inject themselves into the growing tension. It becomes tragically predictable when both an armed secessionist and an All States counter-protester are killed during clashes with police using rubber bullets at a rally in upstate New York.
While the President has largely shifted his focus to other matters, the parameters of secession and border dissolution have gained an unsettling legitimacy at both state and national levels, leading to new referendums and task forces anticipated in the coming year.
**‘The Outbreak Soon Reaches Epidemic Proportions’ BY GEORGES C. BENJAMIN**
Georges C. Benjamin, MD, is executive director of the American Public Health Association.
A small rural community experiences an outbreak of an infectious disease in a poorly vaccinated population. Initial symptoms mimic the flu—fever, headache, muscle aches, and sore throat. Initially, local officials suspect a seasonal flu outbreak, but lab tests for typical viral illnesses like flu, COVID-19, and RSV return negative.
Health officials eventually trace patient zero to an individual returning from abroad, where an undiagnosed disease has already killed hundreds. The state health department investigates, followed by the CDC. However, local authorities hesitate to implement traditional public health measures—such as contact tracing or quarantining exposed individuals—fearing backlash from the community, which has recently limited the health department's powers to act on infectious outbreaks.
Consequently, public health officials find themselves impotent. Misinformation floods social media, with some misleading posts alleging the disease spreads through mail, a narrative amplified by foreign adversaries. As the contagion spreads, several deaths are reported. Within weeks, the outbreak reaches neighboring communities, infecting a major city and two additional states, with the death toll rising significantly. Even as public health measures remain unaddressed, schools and businesses shut down due to staff shortages amid a worsening crisis.
Officials identify the outbreak's causative agent as one for which an experimental vaccine exists, yet deploying it requires emergency authorization. The administration grapples with internal debates on whether to proceed with the vaccine, while pharmaceutical companies express reluctance to produce treatments without guarantees of legal protection and financial support. The FDA is paralyzed, as its advisory committees for vaccine review have been disbanded.
Consequently, the outbreak escalates to epidemic levels across the U.S., prompting travel bans on American citizens from other nations. The economy suffers as goods and services become scarce, leading to conditions akin to the COVID-19 crisis, with thousands losing their lives.
**‘A Trump and Xi Alliance Will Emerge’ BY NANCY QIAN**
Nancy Qian is the James J. O’Connor Professor at the Kellogg School of Management at Northwestern University and co-director of the Global Poverty Research Lab.
Trump's first term began with a China-U.S. trade war, and leading up to his second term, he intensifies his anti-China rhetoric, claiming he will impose a 60% tariff on Chinese imports. Such aggressive posturing against Xi Jinping, who insists he will protect China’s interests, raises concerns about escalating tensions. Yet, it is also plausible that a Trump-Xi alliance might emerge.
In contrast to the first Trump-Xi era characterized by fierce competition, the current environment offers more opportunities for cooperation. During 2016-2020, China projected aspirations to surpass the U.S. economy while asserting its political ideology's superiority. Recent challenges—including economic fallout from strict COVID lockdowns, real estate crises, governmental debt, and an aging population—have tempered such claims.
Shifts in U.S. priorities are evident. In the 2024 campaign, Trump vowed to end the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war that began during his prior term. Both Trump and Xi, having shown a personal affinity for Vladimir Putin, may collaborate to facilitate a peace arrangement benefiting all three leaders. Additionally, as Trump pledges to limit immigration—central to his electoral platform—he must consider whether imposing high tariffs on Chinese goods that could raise consumer prices is feasible. In prioritizing immigration over trade tariffs, Trump could find common ground with Xi for negotiations.
Thus, 2025 might present an unexpected opportunity for Trump and Xi to recognize their shared interests.
**‘A Two-State Solution’ BY JOHN MCLAUGHLIN**
John McLaughlin has served as acting director and deputy director of the CIA and now teaches at Johns Hopkins University.
The interconnectedness of current global events renders surprises more likely than they have been in recent years. Prepare for numerous minor disruptions—perhaps aptly termed "Black Cygnets."
The ongoing war in Ukraine serves as a nexus for a chain of potential developments. Had Putin not invaded Ukraine, he might not find himself collaborating with North Korea, Iran wouldn’t be forging plans to establish drone production in Russia, and China's partnership with Russia would likely lack the current depth. Without these alliances, the so-called Axis of Autocracy would not exist. However, if 2025 brings about a negotiated termination of the Ukraine war—an event difficult to predict—it could set off unforeseen consequences in North Korea, Iran, and China. North Korea, for instance, may recall its thousands of troops to the peninsula, now emboldened by its combat experiences.
Perhaps the most unexpected scenario could unfold in the Middle East, involving momentum towards a two-state solution to the enduring Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Although routinely advocated by Western officials, the feasibility of this solution appears exceedingly low in the near term. Such progress would require an Israeli government willing to marginalize hardline politicians and dismantle numerous West Bank settlements, reminiscent of the proposals presented by former Prime Minister Ehud Barak during the failed Camp David negotiations in 2000.
Palestinians would need to shed their current leadership and unify under a new representative capable of engaging in meaningful negotiations. Agreement on Gaza's reconstruction and governance would also be essential. A concerted push from significant Arab governments, particularly Saudi Arabia and the UAE, would be necessary. Given the improbability of these events occurring simultaneously, the prospect of a two-state resolution tops my list of potential Black Swans.
**‘Market Crash Triggers a Global Panic’ BY AMY WEBB**
Amy Webb is the CEO of Future Today Institute and a professor of strategic foresight at NYU Stern.
Amid efforts to deregulate and downsize government, President Trump's technology advisors deprioritize scenario planning. With the election behind them, malicious actors turn their attention to financial markets in 2025.
Using sophisticated AI to analyze vast amounts of market data, financial reports, and economic indicators, these actors also monitor social media platforms like X and Reddit to gauge public sentiment. This AI identifies vulnerabilities, targeting companies with shaky financials or negative public perceptions susceptible to market turmoil. Misinformation then takes center stage: rumors about corporate leadership, fabricated stories about recalls, and false evidence of fraud are disseminated.
Before executing a coordinated attack, AI generates millions of scenarios to determine the optimal timing and channels for misinformation dissemination. This campaign instigates an artificial market panic, fueled by high-frequency trading executed with extraordinary precision, drawing in hedge funds and other stakeholders. The combination of advanced technology and lax regulatory scrutiny overwhelms the Trump administration, which dismisses the turmoil as “a little nonsense.”
As the panic ripples through global markets, uncertainty grips investors, leading to copycat attacks on exchanges in London and Tokyo. Whispers circulate about a far-left tech militia orchestrating these events, intended to undermine Trump through the vulnerability of his wealth.
**‘Climate Action Becomes the Norm’ BY KATHARINE HAYHOE**
Katharine Hayhoe is a distinguished professor at Texas Tech University and chief scientist at The Nature Conservancy, authoring *Saving Us: A Climate Scientist’s Case for Hope and Healing in a Divided World*.
Irrespective of Donald Trump's return to the presidency, action to address the climate crisis accelerates across the nation.
In the backdrop, the U.S. has transitioned drastically since the 1980s, when approximately three billion-dollar weather disasters occurred annually. By 2023, that number ballooned to 28 such disasters, with 2024 witnessing two massive hurricanes overwhelming the southeastern United States in just two weeks, fueled by record-warm ocean temperatures. Extreme weather has touched approximately 90% of Americans, alongside widespread repercussions.
As the dangers from climate change and the benefits of climate solutions become more evident, bipartisan support grows for action. The Inflation Reduction Act has spurred unprecedented investments in clean energy, with 85% of that funding flowing into Trump-supporting counties. This momentum is difficult to reverse; recently, 18 House Republicans expressed support for critical provisions of the IRA. Recent electoral outcomes further reflect a shift in attitudes, with voters approving 13 separate climate and conservation initiatives at the state and local levels.
Public opinion appears to be approaching a tipping point, where climate action becomes commonplace. Against the odds, 2025 could emerge as a pivotal year for this transformative shift.
**‘Unexpected Geopolitical Alliances and Realignments’ BY BRYNDAN D. MOORE**
Bryndan D. Moore is an engineer and host of *The Black Futurist* podcast.
Three key scenarios are pivotal to consider:
Firstly, envision the sudden emergence of Artificial Super Intelligence and the advancement of quantum computing as early as 2025. This technological evolution could catalyze substantial GDP growth across various industries, benefiting both rural and urban innovators. More importantly, such a development could lead to unexpected geopolitical alliances and shifts in global relationships, particularly with respect to the Middle East, Europe, and a productivity boost in Africa and India.
Secondly, consider the potential for seismic shifts in the Middle East. It’s possible that Trump could negotiate an end to hostilities in regions like Gaza, Syria, and southern Lebanon, paving the way for democratic progress in Syria and stabilizing Lebanon. This would hinge on intricate international negotiations and a unified commitment among involved parties to pursue peace—admittedly a tremendous challenge, but one that could fundamentally reshape the Middle Eastern geopolitical landscape.
Lastly, we must acknowledge vulnerabilities in global infrastructure presented by risks from cyberattacks, natural disruptions, or solar phenomena. Such events might cripple energy and communication networks, affecting everything from satellite operations to transportation systems worldwide. The interdependence of modern infrastructure means that disruptions could have far-reaching economic and social consequences.
My analysis emphasizes the importance of mental preparedness for whatever the future might bring, prioritizing readiness in the face of uncertainty.
**‘South Korea’s Secret Nuclear Weapons Program’ BY S. NATHAN PARK**
S. Nathan Park is an attorney based in Washington and a non-resident fellow at the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft.
A shocking nuclear test on the Korean Peninsula stuns the world—not from North Korea, but from South Korea. President Lee Jae-myung announces that South Korea is now a nuclear power and invokes Article X of the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons to withdraw from the treaty.
The secret nuclear program, which began under former President Yoon Suk-yeol—who was impeached and imprisoned—has continued under Lee's administration after he unearthed the initiative. In precedent, the United States would have identified and nipped such a program in the bud. However, the Trump administration's purge of the State Department and CIA undercuts such oversight—an outcome Trump seems to applaud. He refers to South Korea's "big beautiful bomb" as evidence of the country taking serious measures against North Korea.
With U.S. support faltering, a domino effect occurs in East Asia, as Japan and Taiwan promptly announce their own nuclear programs. The technology barrier is no issue for these nations. As key Asian countries abandon the Non-Proliferation Treaty, this disintegration undermines a crucial pillar of the post-WWII world order. The era of mutually assured destruction reemerges.
**‘The American Military Moves Into the Unvaccinated Age’ BY JACOB SOLL**
Jacob Soll is a professor of history, philosophy, and accounting at the University of Southern California and the author of *Free Market: The History of an Idea*.
On January 22nd, just two days post-inauguration, the Secretary of Defense announces that vaccinations will no longer be mandatory for the military, whether against COVID-19 or anything else. While servicemen are free to get vaccinated, the government will not cover vaccines that Robert F. Kennedy Jr.—with backing from allies at the CDC, FDA, and NIH—deems unsafe.
At a Texas dairy farm, a virulent H1N1 bird flu strain jumps from cows to farm workers, leading to outbreaks at Fort Cavazos military base. The strain causes acute respiratory failure, resulting in numerous fatalities among both workers and soldiers, yet the government opts for silence. The CDC refuses to confirm that the deaths stem from H1N1, diverging from military doctors advocating for swift vaccination. The flu spreads unchecked across the nation and the world.
Foreign governments react. Militaries from Mexico to China, East Asia, and Europe initiate vaccination drives, expressing frustration as U.S. military installations become epicenters for flu outbreaks. International calls for preventive measures and vaccines go unanswered, leading to faltering military collaboration. As the outbreak spirals over the following month, military leadership warns that American forces are becoming severely compromised by illness. One general declares that flu poses a greater threat to American security than China, triggering Trump's ire and a call for the general's court-martial.
As the situation worsens, countries such as China, India, and Russia embark on successful vaccination campaigns, while the American military struggles. A vaccinated and militarizing Europe advocates for the expulsion of U.S. troops, catalyzing a new security landscape as capital flows to healthier havens.
**‘The People of Belarus Could See Freedom’ BY EVELYN FARKAS**
Evelyn Farkas is the executive director of the McCain Institute at Arizona State University and formerly served as deputy assistant secretary of Defense for Russia, Ukraine, and Eurasia.
The citizens of Belarus may successfully overturn Aleksandr Lukashenko's regime. Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya, the elected president-in-exile, encourages Belarusian citizens to prepare for a moment of uprising, sensing vulnerabilities in the Russian government due to setbacks in its Ukraine offensive and the compounding challenges facing Vladimir Putin.
It's feasible to envision Putin making concessions and potentially ceding Ukrainian territory, or even witnessing Ukraine gain NATO membership or bilateral treaty protection from the U.S. A negative outcome for Putin in Ukraine could precipitate a crisis for his own rule, enabling the Belarusian populace to seize their chance at liberation.
**‘Loss of Power Will Fundamentally Upend American Life’ BY MICHELLE LI**
Michelle Li is the founder and CEO of Clever Carbon, which enhances carbon literacy and founded a non-profit organization focused on climate advocacy.
A fundamental change in energy security could spark a significant Black Swan event in 2025. As AI advancements continue, cryptocurrency gains traction, and digital consumption surges, it's evident that energy demands will skyrocket. This surge will lead to increased emissions and exacerbate risks associated with energy security and grid failures, driven by extreme weather events.
Cuba's energy crisis, triggered by outdated infrastructure and worsened by natural disasters, serves as a cautionary tale. Over 70% of U.S. transmission lines and transformers are over 25 years old, designed for a time of moderate energy demands. Compounding this is the ongoing risk of cyberattacks on critical infrastructure, from water systems to energy providers.
At its core lies a national security risk. A significant power outage would leave counties, cities, and the country at the mercy of cybercriminals targeting health care and financial systems. A loss of electricity could drastically reshape American life, spurring urgent and chaotic political reactions. Consequently, energy security might represent the ultimate Black Swan event for 2025.
**‘The Temptation to Reach for the Nuclear Toolbox May Be Too Hard to Resist’ BY JEFF GREENFIELD**
Jeff Greenfield is a contributing writer at PMG Magazine, a five-time Emmy-winning television analyst, and a published author on politics.
The upcoming year promises a range of scenarios now appearing more plausible than ever. Here are three significant possibilities:
The collapse of checks and balances could emerge as Republican senators receive strong indications from Trump to overlook their constitutional obligations in confirming his more contentious nominees. Senators like Tommy Tuberville have argued that it is not their role to scrutinize nominees. MAGA loyalists could threaten primary challenges against any senators who dare to assert their prerogatives, suggesting a larger erosion of legislative control and oversight.
Crossing the nuclear "red line" becomes an ever-present concern. Recent discussions surrounding low-yield tactical nuclear weapons illustrate an increased likelihood of battlefield deployment. Russian media have been vocal about the potential justification of nuclear responses to setbacks in Ukraine. If nuclear states like Russia, China, and North Korea launch aggressive actions against their neighbors and encounter resistance, the urge to resort to nuclear capabilities may become irresistible.
The digital landscape remains susceptible. In 2023, ransomware attacks on major corporations and local governments cost the U.S. an estimated $40 billion. The potential devastation from a comprehensive cyberattack crippling the power grid or disrupting nationwide communications could result in losses—financial, health, and otherwise—that are incalculable.
**‘Decisive Breakthrough in Quantum Computing’ BY AZIZ HUQ**
Aziz Huq teaches law at the University of Chicago and is the author of *The Collapse of Constitutional Remedies*.
The predictive power of science fiction often illuminates truths obscured by everyday life. Recent advancements in quantum computing, first heralded in China and then by Google, indicate that imminent breakthroughs could render existing cryptographic safeguards ineffective, threatening a wide array of personal and corporate data protections.
If a major development in quantum computing occurs at Tsinghua University in late 2025, it could be weaponized amid ongoing trade tensions, eroding fundamental privacy measures across American society. In a world where trust has decayed, both individuals and nations might retreat into isolation, reflecting the grim realities presented in dystopian fiction. Ultimately, the understated warnings of speculative fiction resonate profoundly because they lie close to the realm of possibility.
Thomas Evans contributed to this report for TROIB News
