Study Concludes Carbon Removal Insufficient if Global Warming Targets Are Missed
Study finds carbon removal won't suffice if the world fails to meet warming targets.
TroibNews 
Scientists warned on Wednesday that intensified efforts to remove carbon dioxide from the atmosphere will not prevent a climate change catastrophe, as global temperatures are on the brink of surpassing a critical threshold of 1.5 degrees Celsius.
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has indicated that carbon dioxide removal (CDR) might aid in mitigating warming by decreasing the greenhouse gases already present in the atmosphere, especially if the 1.5 degrees Celsius threshold is breached.
However, even if successful, CDR would not address other significant climate change impacts, such as rising sea levels and alterations in ocean circulation, according to research published in the journal Nature on Wednesday.
"Even if you've brought temperatures back down again, the world we will be looking at will not be the same," remarked Carl-Friedrich Schleussner of Austria's International Institute of Applied Systems Analysis, one of the authors of the study.
The findings indicate that reducing temperatures from their peak may be more challenging than expected, particularly as melting permafrost and diminishing peatlands release methane, contributing to further warming.
CDR encompasses various methods for extracting and storing CO2 from the atmosphere, including natural solutions like forests and ocean algae, alongside innovative technologies that filter carbon dioxide from the air.
Current CDR capacity manages to remove approximately 2 billion tonnes of CO2 annually, yet a report from June highlighted that this number needs to increase to around 7 billion to 9 billion tonnes to achieve global climate objectives.
Nonetheless, there are constraints on how much new forest can be established and how much CO2 can be permanently sequestered, while existing technologies remain costly, said Joeri Rogelj of Imperial College London, another co-author of the Nature paper.
"If we are starting to use land exclusively for carbon management, this can strongly conflict with the other important roles of land, be it biodiversity or food production," he explained during a briefing.
The most optimistic emissions reduction scenario in the IPCC's latest assessment report, released last year, considered the potential for a minor overshoot of 0.1 degree Celsius.
Undoing such an overshoot would necessitate the removal of approximately 220 billion tons of CO2, whereas an overshoot of 0.5 degree Celsius—aligned with the IPCC's best-case scenario—would require the elimination of more than a trillion tons, Rogelj noted.
"The risks the world exposes itself to an overshoot are much larger than acknowledged," he added.
"Only through ambitious emissions reductions in the near term can we effectively reduce the risks from climate change."
Ramin Sohrabi contributed to this report for TROIB News
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has indicated that carbon dioxide removal (CDR) might aid in mitigating warming by decreasing the greenhouse gases already present in the atmosphere, especially if the 1.5 degrees Celsius threshold is breached.
However, even if successful, CDR would not address other significant climate change impacts, such as rising sea levels and alterations in ocean circulation, according to research published in the journal Nature on Wednesday.
"Even if you've brought temperatures back down again, the world we will be looking at will not be the same," remarked Carl-Friedrich Schleussner of Austria's International Institute of Applied Systems Analysis, one of the authors of the study.
The findings indicate that reducing temperatures from their peak may be more challenging than expected, particularly as melting permafrost and diminishing peatlands release methane, contributing to further warming.
CDR encompasses various methods for extracting and storing CO2 from the atmosphere, including natural solutions like forests and ocean algae, alongside innovative technologies that filter carbon dioxide from the air.
Current CDR capacity manages to remove approximately 2 billion tonnes of CO2 annually, yet a report from June highlighted that this number needs to increase to around 7 billion to 9 billion tonnes to achieve global climate objectives.
Nonetheless, there are constraints on how much new forest can be established and how much CO2 can be permanently sequestered, while existing technologies remain costly, said Joeri Rogelj of Imperial College London, another co-author of the Nature paper.
"If we are starting to use land exclusively for carbon management, this can strongly conflict with the other important roles of land, be it biodiversity or food production," he explained during a briefing.
The most optimistic emissions reduction scenario in the IPCC's latest assessment report, released last year, considered the potential for a minor overshoot of 0.1 degree Celsius.
Undoing such an overshoot would necessitate the removal of approximately 220 billion tons of CO2, whereas an overshoot of 0.5 degree Celsius—aligned with the IPCC's best-case scenario—would require the elimination of more than a trillion tons, Rogelj noted.
"The risks the world exposes itself to an overshoot are much larger than acknowledged," he added.
"Only through ambitious emissions reductions in the near term can we effectively reduce the risks from climate change."
Ramin Sohrabi contributed to this report for TROIB News
