Republicans maintain control of the House — securing the trifecta
While the majority is expected to be slim, it concludes two other significant victories for Republicans, granting the party substantial power in 2025.
This marks the first occasion since 2018 that Republicans have had complete authority over Congress and the White House. House Republicans have been quietly formulating their legislative agenda, focusing on tax cuts and other key priorities for several months. However, the anticipated slim majority may complicate these initiatives, along with Speaker Mike Johnson’s efforts to retain his position in a January floor vote.
As results emerged over the past week, the GOP was able to hold on to several vulnerable incumbents and even gained a few seats in Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Colorado. Nevertheless, they suffered losses in several districts in New York and California.
For months, control of the House had been deemed a toss-up. Although GOP leaders expressed confidence in their chances to maintain control, concerns grew as they struggled to match Democratic fundraising efforts. In contrast to 2022, Republican leaders entered election night with modest estimates. They spent months spotlighting campaign messages centered around the economy and border security, hoping these issues would create divides among vulnerable Democratic candidates.
Due to partisan redistricting, there are now fewer competitive seats available, narrowing the genuine battleground districts to only about a dozen races for both parties. Leaders from both sides have acknowledged that significant majorities of more than 30 seats may not be achievable in the near future. This cycle, Republicans benefited from Democrats’ choice to adopt a less aggressive redistricting strategy in New York, which proved central to the struggle for House control. Similarly, a GOP-drawn map in North Carolina also countered Democratic advances in other areas.
“There's only about 45 seats in the country that are truly competitive. … And so each one of them is very competitive and very expensive and our candidates are great,” Majority Leader Steve Scalise told PMG ahead of Election Day.
In addition to flipping Democratic-held seats, Republicans successfully thwarted Democratic attempts to gain ground in races that seemed competitive as the campaign neared its end, managing to retain vulnerable incumbents in Iowa and Wisconsin. The House was officially declared for Republicans on Wednesday night following the Associated Press's projection of Juan Ciscomani's reelection to Arizona's 6th Congressional District.
A significant distinction in this year's campaigns was the Republicans' more deliberate approach to candidate recruitment and the challengers they supported in the primaries compared to 2022. The campaign arm of House Republicans closely collaborated with Trump, working to elevate candidates deemed most likely to succeed in the general election — a strategy that ultimately yielded results.
Vulnerable incumbent Republicans, including Reps. Don Bacon and Brian Fitzpatrick, successfully fended off primary challengers who might have posed risks in the general election. In Alaska, the party unified behind a single Republican candidate this year to sidestep issues faced in 2022 with the state's ranked-choice voting system.
In contrast, Democrats leaned on a select group of repeat candidates who narrowly lost in 2022. The party had anticipated that the established campaign infrastructure and voter recognition would work in their favor. However, this strategy did not prove effective for many candidates, with some likely suffering from a lack of enthusiasm for Kamala Harris at the top of the ticket.
Frederick R Cook for TROIB News