Global Climate Community Yet to Find an Answer to "Trump 2.0"
Concerns are mounting within the global climate community regarding the possibility of the former Republican president's reelection.
TroibNews 
NEW YORK — Pro-climate government officials and environmental activists have spent months devising a strategy to prevent a second Donald Trump presidency from derailing their efforts to combat climate change.
Their primary focus? Hoping for a victory for Vice President Kamala Harris.
“Winning the election is probably the most important thing for the Democrats,” said Catherine McKenna, who served as Canada’s environment and climate minister during Trump’s first term, “having seen what it was like to live under a Trump administration.”
During nearly a week of events at the United Nations General Assembly and Climate Week in New York, as a catastrophic hurricane approached Florida and the Southeast, diplomats, ministers, green advocates, and business representatives refrained from openly addressing the possibility of a Trump win. The absence of a cohesive counter-Trump strategy during numerous conversations and interviews highlights the challenges that the global climate movement would face if confronted with another unfriendly administration in Washington.
Many leaders expressed that it was not their role to comment on U.S. electoral outcomes, while recognizing the significance of those outcomes given their potential repercussions.
“People all across the globe, certainly also in the European Union, are closely following what happens simply because it matters to the world at large,” EU climate envoy Wopke Hoekstra noted at a New York Times event.
The prospect of a Trump victory brings with it the confrontation of an unavoidable truth: once he occupies the White House, there is little that other nations can do to keep him and his administration engaged on climate issues. This scenario poses a formidable barrier, especially considering the United States is the world’s largest economy, leading producer of oil and natural gas, and the biggest historical contributor to greenhouse gas emissions — its influential leadership was essential in forming the Paris Agreement in 2015.
Trump has indicated plans to withdraw the U.S. from the Paris climate agreement once more, similar to his actions during his initial term. This time, he may act even more swiftly, as the world is already lagging significantly in taking necessary actions to avert climate disaster.
“Climate is on the ballot with Kamala Harris,” Democratic New York Gov. Kathy Hochul remarked in an interview. “If they care about this, they'll make sure that Kamala Harris is the person they vote for and ultimately becomes president.”
A return of Trump would pose an even greater threat than before, given that the world now has even less time to correct course before climate change reaches critical thresholds that could severely impact billions of lives.
“I hope whichever administration comes into office after the November general elections will have a receptive ear and heart to take heed of the voices of the small and the neglected,” commented Feleti Teo, prime minister of the Pacific island nation of Tuvalu, in an interview with PMG.
However, the activists, executives, and diplomats congregated in New York have been aware since at least June 27, when President Joe Biden struggled in a debate against Trump, that the former president has a solid chance of regaining the White House.
The framework of international climate governance relies on a loose set of norms and rules, primarily on trust. The Paris climate agreement, which requires all countries to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, is non-binding and lacks enforceable legal standards. Countries essentially use diplomatic pressure to encourage more aggressive policies for climate action.
“My expectation is, certainly if Trump wins, that he'll pull us out,” stated Todd Stern, who served as the special climate envoy and lead negotiator for the Paris Agreement during the Obama administration, during a C2ES event. “My guess is that there is not a lot of planning going on.”
Beyond re-exiting Paris, Trump has disparaged Biden’s green policies as a “scam” and pledged to recapture unspent funds from the president’s climate legislation. Such actions would impede the U.S.'s claims to climate leadership, which Biden worked diligently to reestablish early in his administration by rejoining the Paris Agreement on his first day and organizing a leader-level climate summit within his first 100 days.
Throughout the week in New York, U.S. leaders, climate advisers, and business executives expressed confidence in the stability of Biden’s climate policies, particularly the Inflation Reduction Act, which includes substantial subsidies and incentives for clean energy investment.
“Lots of optimism, but it's interesting, there's still a place for activists to keep us focused. There's a huge place for politicians to keep us as nations aligned, and then for the private sector to do the hard work that's needed,” remarked Siemens CEO Barbara Humpton in an interview. “Regardless of the party, there's a huge focus on the things that need to be done to fuel the economy and to work on the issues facing us, like climate change.”
International collaboration could suffer severely under a potential Trump presidency, which would have far-reaching implications.
Many business leaders and diplomats downplayed the likelihood of Trump entirely dismantling the IRA, acknowledging the investments it has supported in both Republican and Democratic areas. The greater concern relates to the international consequences, according to John Morton, a former climate counselor at Treasury, who characterized U.S. withdrawal as “seismic and noticeable.”
“When Trump pulls back from Paris, when he stops sending delegations to work with high-emitting countries around the world — whether it's India or China or Vietnam or the Philippines or South Africa, you name it — that agenda lowers in the mind of our international partners, and we lose momentum,” Morton told reporters Thursday. He currently serves as managing director and head of the Americas for the climate investment firm Pollination Group.
Trump has also not ruled out exiting the broader 1992 U.N. treaty that underpins all climate negotiations, risking critical funding for the organization and isolating the U.S. from annual talks. In its absence, countries like China might take a more prominent role, having aligned with a large cohort of developing nations on various climate issues, including the continued use of coal.
Hoekstra cautioned, without directly mentioning Trump, that a victory for him would be disastrous for cooperation on multiple fronts, notably Ukraine.
He suggested that if Trump wins, it may fall to “Americans at home” to step up on climate matters, along with the EU and China, to maintain progress. This strategy harkens back to Trump’s first term when U.S. mayors, governors, and businesses asserted their commitment to meeting the Paris Agreement’s tenets.
Officials from the Biden administration are currently striving to establish a robust negotiating framework with China regarding non-carbon-dioxide greenhouse gases, which they hope could endure a potential Trump administration. They also aim to implement changes to enhance World Bank financing for climate investments, which Trump could not easily undermine. In anticipation of a Trump presidency, governors have once again committed to intensifying their actions.
Ministers gearing up for the upcoming COP29 climate negotiations in Baku, Azerbaijan, maintained that the U.S. election has yet to infiltrate their discussions. However, the outcome is likely to have a significant impact on vital negotiations surrounding climate finance, crucial for incentivizing nations to adopt more ambitious climate policies.
“It is one of the main issues in the broader calculus of this new climate finance goal. We can't get over it. We can't get around it,” stated Michai Robertson, a lead negotiator on finance for an alliance representing small island developing states.
When Trump announced in 2017 his decision to pull the U.S. out of the Paris Agreement, other countries such as China and the European Union pledged to fill the vacuum left behind. Robertson noted, however, that current economic and geopolitical conditions limit their capabilities to unite and address the gap this time.
“I do think they're waiting to see whether there will be a [U.S.] government that will hopefully stay within the Paris Agreement regime, and then what can they promise?” Robertson commented.
Biden underscored the dangers of a leadership void in climate initiatives while addressing business leaders at a Bloomberg-hosted forum Tuesday.
“The rest of the world looks to us. And it’s not about my being president,” Biden stated. “If we didn’t lead, who the hell leads? Who fills the vacuum without America leading? That’s who we are, that’s our obligation, and it’s our incredible opportunity.”
The Trump campaign did not respond immediately to a request for comment.
For low-lying nations facing increasing climate threats, securing not only funding but also immediate action on emissions reductions could determine their survival. This need was highlighted by countries like Tuvalu at a recent U.N. summit focused on sea level rise.
Meanwhile, ministers participating in upcoming climate negotiations have mostly prioritized their own national plans for reducing emissions, recognizing they lack control over the U.S. election. Nevertheless, they hinted at the importance of addressing a potential U.S. leadership vacuum in the event of a Trump victory.
“The commitment that we see among colleagues in the rooms is infectious and here to stay,” said Hana AlHashimi, the chief climate negotiator for the United Arab Emirates, at the C2ES event. “The trust that we have in the process I think will prevail.”
Environmental advocates throughout the city are banking on renewed optimism stemming from Harris’ campaign to keep Trump away from 1600 Pennsylvania Ave.
“This is such a critical juncture for domestic leadership, global leadership, and ultimately whether or not we're going to solve the climate crisis,” remarked Sweta Chakraborty, a Harris campaign surrogate and climate activist. “The timing of it all is why this week is uniquely more intense than I've ever experienced since I've been here every single year of Climate Week in New York since it began.”
At a small gathering on the Upper West Side hosted by Sierra Club senior adviser Loren Blackford, Democratic Washington Gov. Jay Inslee and Camila Thorndike, the Harris campaign’s director for climate engagement, rallied Sierra Club officials and supporters. Thorndike distributed Harris merchandise, including green “vote climate” lapel pins styled after pop artist Charli XCX’s hit album cover “brat.”
“Because of Joe Biden, because of Kamala Harris, because of the Inflation Reduction Act, we are opening new factories coast to coast for the first time in my adult life,” declared Sierra Club Executive Director Ben Jealous in an impassioned speech.
Yet not all activists are placing their hopes solely on a Harris win, particularly those dissatisfied with the U.S. becoming the world’s largest producer of oil and gas — a major factor in exacerbating global temperatures.
“The IRA has some good things on climate, and by U.S. standards, is probably the best package that we have seen. But the bottom line is they continue to feed the poison that's driving the crisis,” stated Kumi Naidoo, a long-time activist leading efforts to promote the Fossil Fuel Non-Proliferation Treaty, a coalition of 14 countries advocating for a legally binding agreement to cease the use of coal, oil, and natural gas.
Naidoo emphasized that advocates are not relying solely on federally elected leaders, but on a wide array of American society.
“And we will use all those cities, states, civil society, faith organizations, trade unions and so on, to get those folks to put pressure on their own governments,” he added. “Which is how it should be.”
James del Carmen for TROIB News
Their primary focus? Hoping for a victory for Vice President Kamala Harris.
“Winning the election is probably the most important thing for the Democrats,” said Catherine McKenna, who served as Canada’s environment and climate minister during Trump’s first term, “having seen what it was like to live under a Trump administration.”
During nearly a week of events at the United Nations General Assembly and Climate Week in New York, as a catastrophic hurricane approached Florida and the Southeast, diplomats, ministers, green advocates, and business representatives refrained from openly addressing the possibility of a Trump win. The absence of a cohesive counter-Trump strategy during numerous conversations and interviews highlights the challenges that the global climate movement would face if confronted with another unfriendly administration in Washington.
Many leaders expressed that it was not their role to comment on U.S. electoral outcomes, while recognizing the significance of those outcomes given their potential repercussions.
“People all across the globe, certainly also in the European Union, are closely following what happens simply because it matters to the world at large,” EU climate envoy Wopke Hoekstra noted at a New York Times event.
The prospect of a Trump victory brings with it the confrontation of an unavoidable truth: once he occupies the White House, there is little that other nations can do to keep him and his administration engaged on climate issues. This scenario poses a formidable barrier, especially considering the United States is the world’s largest economy, leading producer of oil and natural gas, and the biggest historical contributor to greenhouse gas emissions — its influential leadership was essential in forming the Paris Agreement in 2015.
Trump has indicated plans to withdraw the U.S. from the Paris climate agreement once more, similar to his actions during his initial term. This time, he may act even more swiftly, as the world is already lagging significantly in taking necessary actions to avert climate disaster.
“Climate is on the ballot with Kamala Harris,” Democratic New York Gov. Kathy Hochul remarked in an interview. “If they care about this, they'll make sure that Kamala Harris is the person they vote for and ultimately becomes president.”
A return of Trump would pose an even greater threat than before, given that the world now has even less time to correct course before climate change reaches critical thresholds that could severely impact billions of lives.
“I hope whichever administration comes into office after the November general elections will have a receptive ear and heart to take heed of the voices of the small and the neglected,” commented Feleti Teo, prime minister of the Pacific island nation of Tuvalu, in an interview with PMG.
However, the activists, executives, and diplomats congregated in New York have been aware since at least June 27, when President Joe Biden struggled in a debate against Trump, that the former president has a solid chance of regaining the White House.
The framework of international climate governance relies on a loose set of norms and rules, primarily on trust. The Paris climate agreement, which requires all countries to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, is non-binding and lacks enforceable legal standards. Countries essentially use diplomatic pressure to encourage more aggressive policies for climate action.
“My expectation is, certainly if Trump wins, that he'll pull us out,” stated Todd Stern, who served as the special climate envoy and lead negotiator for the Paris Agreement during the Obama administration, during a C2ES event. “My guess is that there is not a lot of planning going on.”
Beyond re-exiting Paris, Trump has disparaged Biden’s green policies as a “scam” and pledged to recapture unspent funds from the president’s climate legislation. Such actions would impede the U.S.'s claims to climate leadership, which Biden worked diligently to reestablish early in his administration by rejoining the Paris Agreement on his first day and organizing a leader-level climate summit within his first 100 days.
Throughout the week in New York, U.S. leaders, climate advisers, and business executives expressed confidence in the stability of Biden’s climate policies, particularly the Inflation Reduction Act, which includes substantial subsidies and incentives for clean energy investment.
“Lots of optimism, but it's interesting, there's still a place for activists to keep us focused. There's a huge place for politicians to keep us as nations aligned, and then for the private sector to do the hard work that's needed,” remarked Siemens CEO Barbara Humpton in an interview. “Regardless of the party, there's a huge focus on the things that need to be done to fuel the economy and to work on the issues facing us, like climate change.”
International collaboration could suffer severely under a potential Trump presidency, which would have far-reaching implications.
Many business leaders and diplomats downplayed the likelihood of Trump entirely dismantling the IRA, acknowledging the investments it has supported in both Republican and Democratic areas. The greater concern relates to the international consequences, according to John Morton, a former climate counselor at Treasury, who characterized U.S. withdrawal as “seismic and noticeable.”
“When Trump pulls back from Paris, when he stops sending delegations to work with high-emitting countries around the world — whether it's India or China or Vietnam or the Philippines or South Africa, you name it — that agenda lowers in the mind of our international partners, and we lose momentum,” Morton told reporters Thursday. He currently serves as managing director and head of the Americas for the climate investment firm Pollination Group.
Trump has also not ruled out exiting the broader 1992 U.N. treaty that underpins all climate negotiations, risking critical funding for the organization and isolating the U.S. from annual talks. In its absence, countries like China might take a more prominent role, having aligned with a large cohort of developing nations on various climate issues, including the continued use of coal.
Hoekstra cautioned, without directly mentioning Trump, that a victory for him would be disastrous for cooperation on multiple fronts, notably Ukraine.
He suggested that if Trump wins, it may fall to “Americans at home” to step up on climate matters, along with the EU and China, to maintain progress. This strategy harkens back to Trump’s first term when U.S. mayors, governors, and businesses asserted their commitment to meeting the Paris Agreement’s tenets.
Officials from the Biden administration are currently striving to establish a robust negotiating framework with China regarding non-carbon-dioxide greenhouse gases, which they hope could endure a potential Trump administration. They also aim to implement changes to enhance World Bank financing for climate investments, which Trump could not easily undermine. In anticipation of a Trump presidency, governors have once again committed to intensifying their actions.
Ministers gearing up for the upcoming COP29 climate negotiations in Baku, Azerbaijan, maintained that the U.S. election has yet to infiltrate their discussions. However, the outcome is likely to have a significant impact on vital negotiations surrounding climate finance, crucial for incentivizing nations to adopt more ambitious climate policies.
“It is one of the main issues in the broader calculus of this new climate finance goal. We can't get over it. We can't get around it,” stated Michai Robertson, a lead negotiator on finance for an alliance representing small island developing states.
When Trump announced in 2017 his decision to pull the U.S. out of the Paris Agreement, other countries such as China and the European Union pledged to fill the vacuum left behind. Robertson noted, however, that current economic and geopolitical conditions limit their capabilities to unite and address the gap this time.
“I do think they're waiting to see whether there will be a [U.S.] government that will hopefully stay within the Paris Agreement regime, and then what can they promise?” Robertson commented.
Biden underscored the dangers of a leadership void in climate initiatives while addressing business leaders at a Bloomberg-hosted forum Tuesday.
“The rest of the world looks to us. And it’s not about my being president,” Biden stated. “If we didn’t lead, who the hell leads? Who fills the vacuum without America leading? That’s who we are, that’s our obligation, and it’s our incredible opportunity.”
The Trump campaign did not respond immediately to a request for comment.
For low-lying nations facing increasing climate threats, securing not only funding but also immediate action on emissions reductions could determine their survival. This need was highlighted by countries like Tuvalu at a recent U.N. summit focused on sea level rise.
Meanwhile, ministers participating in upcoming climate negotiations have mostly prioritized their own national plans for reducing emissions, recognizing they lack control over the U.S. election. Nevertheless, they hinted at the importance of addressing a potential U.S. leadership vacuum in the event of a Trump victory.
“The commitment that we see among colleagues in the rooms is infectious and here to stay,” said Hana AlHashimi, the chief climate negotiator for the United Arab Emirates, at the C2ES event. “The trust that we have in the process I think will prevail.”
Environmental advocates throughout the city are banking on renewed optimism stemming from Harris’ campaign to keep Trump away from 1600 Pennsylvania Ave.
“This is such a critical juncture for domestic leadership, global leadership, and ultimately whether or not we're going to solve the climate crisis,” remarked Sweta Chakraborty, a Harris campaign surrogate and climate activist. “The timing of it all is why this week is uniquely more intense than I've ever experienced since I've been here every single year of Climate Week in New York since it began.”
At a small gathering on the Upper West Side hosted by Sierra Club senior adviser Loren Blackford, Democratic Washington Gov. Jay Inslee and Camila Thorndike, the Harris campaign’s director for climate engagement, rallied Sierra Club officials and supporters. Thorndike distributed Harris merchandise, including green “vote climate” lapel pins styled after pop artist Charli XCX’s hit album cover “brat.”
“Because of Joe Biden, because of Kamala Harris, because of the Inflation Reduction Act, we are opening new factories coast to coast for the first time in my adult life,” declared Sierra Club Executive Director Ben Jealous in an impassioned speech.
Yet not all activists are placing their hopes solely on a Harris win, particularly those dissatisfied with the U.S. becoming the world’s largest producer of oil and gas — a major factor in exacerbating global temperatures.
“The IRA has some good things on climate, and by U.S. standards, is probably the best package that we have seen. But the bottom line is they continue to feed the poison that's driving the crisis,” stated Kumi Naidoo, a long-time activist leading efforts to promote the Fossil Fuel Non-Proliferation Treaty, a coalition of 14 countries advocating for a legally binding agreement to cease the use of coal, oil, and natural gas.
Naidoo emphasized that advocates are not relying solely on federally elected leaders, but on a wide array of American society.
“And we will use all those cities, states, civil society, faith organizations, trade unions and so on, to get those folks to put pressure on their own governments,” he added. “Which is how it should be.”
James del Carmen for TROIB News
