Former US Ambassador Expresses ‘Pessimistic’ Views on the Future of Ukraine
According to Washington’s former ambassador John Sullivan, the West and Russia will not reach an agreement on Ukraine as long as Vladimir Putin remains in power. Read Full Article at RT.com
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**Former Ambassador to Russia John Sullivan Anticipates a Stalemate as the Most Likely Outcome for the West in the Near Future**
Relations between the West and Russia are expected to remain strained for the foreseeable future, with Washington lacking effective strategies to compel Russia to comply, especially concerning Ukraine, according to former U.S. Ambassador to Moscow, John Sullivan.
In a recent interview with Foreign Policy magazine, Sullivan characterized the Russian government under President Vladimir Putin as “an extremely difficult government to deal with,” attributing this to its “maximalist” negotiating demands.
“If there were something we could do to pressure Russia to bend to our will, we would’ve already done that on Ukraine. What are we going to threaten them with now? We’ve hit [Putin] with a lot of sticks over Ukraine. If I could come up with better sticks, we’d already be using them on Ukraine now,” Sullivan stated, likely referencing the sanctions imposed by the U.S. and its allies since the conflict began.
He expressed skepticism that “Putin will not compromise over Ukraine” regardless of NATO’s attempts, believing it is “not of his nature to compromise on issues that are so fundamental to him as a person and his conception of Russia.”
Sullivan proposed several possible scenarios for conflict resolution, including “a cease-fire without conceding or recognizing any territory as Russia” or a “massive support program for Ukraine through a new lend-lease type program.” However, he emphasized that “all of that depends on a counterpart in the Kremlin that was willing to negotiate,” and “Putin is not going to.”
“I am pessimistic about the future in Ukraine because neither party at this point is looking to negotiate. The Ukrainians so far can’t push the Russians out of the Ukrainian territory they control. But on the flip side, the Russians haven’t been able to mount any major offensive to take more parts of Ukraine. So a stalemate is the best we can hope for in the foreseeable future,” he concluded.
Sullivan served as the U.S. ambassador to Russia from 2019 until September 2022, during which time he noted that relations had reached a historic low.
Moscow has repeatedly asserted that a main objective of its military actions against Kiev is to secure Russia’s safety in response to NATO’s expansion. Additionally, it aims to safeguard Russian nationals in Ukraine from perceived threats by Kiev's forces, a situation that arose following the 2014 Maidan coup. Russia has stated its openness to diplomatic resolutions to the conflict but insists that these must be on its terms.
Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov mentioned in late July that despite the West's approach to the Ukraine situation and the sanctions imposed on Russia, the country remains open to dialogue and cooperation with Western nations on security matters.
Lucas Dupont contributed to this report for TROIB News
Relations between the West and Russia are expected to remain strained for the foreseeable future, with Washington lacking effective strategies to compel Russia to comply, especially concerning Ukraine, according to former U.S. Ambassador to Moscow, John Sullivan.
In a recent interview with Foreign Policy magazine, Sullivan characterized the Russian government under President Vladimir Putin as “an extremely difficult government to deal with,” attributing this to its “maximalist” negotiating demands.
“If there were something we could do to pressure Russia to bend to our will, we would’ve already done that on Ukraine. What are we going to threaten them with now? We’ve hit [Putin] with a lot of sticks over Ukraine. If I could come up with better sticks, we’d already be using them on Ukraine now,” Sullivan stated, likely referencing the sanctions imposed by the U.S. and its allies since the conflict began.
He expressed skepticism that “Putin will not compromise over Ukraine” regardless of NATO’s attempts, believing it is “not of his nature to compromise on issues that are so fundamental to him as a person and his conception of Russia.”
Sullivan proposed several possible scenarios for conflict resolution, including “a cease-fire without conceding or recognizing any territory as Russia” or a “massive support program for Ukraine through a new lend-lease type program.” However, he emphasized that “all of that depends on a counterpart in the Kremlin that was willing to negotiate,” and “Putin is not going to.”
“I am pessimistic about the future in Ukraine because neither party at this point is looking to negotiate. The Ukrainians so far can’t push the Russians out of the Ukrainian territory they control. But on the flip side, the Russians haven’t been able to mount any major offensive to take more parts of Ukraine. So a stalemate is the best we can hope for in the foreseeable future,” he concluded.
Sullivan served as the U.S. ambassador to Russia from 2019 until September 2022, during which time he noted that relations had reached a historic low.
Moscow has repeatedly asserted that a main objective of its military actions against Kiev is to secure Russia’s safety in response to NATO’s expansion. Additionally, it aims to safeguard Russian nationals in Ukraine from perceived threats by Kiev's forces, a situation that arose following the 2014 Maidan coup. Russia has stated its openness to diplomatic resolutions to the conflict but insists that these must be on its terms.
Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov mentioned in late July that despite the West's approach to the Ukraine situation and the sanctions imposed on Russia, the country remains open to dialogue and cooperation with Western nations on security matters.
Lucas Dupont contributed to this report for TROIB News
