Ex-diplomat claims Americans in Canada 'could determine' upcoming U.S. president
The presidential race is extremely close, prompting Democrats to go door knocking in Windsor, Ontario, to connect with American voters who could sway the outcome in favor of Kamala Harris.
TroibNews 
When former President Donald Trump incorrectly asserted online last month that Democrats were “getting ready to cheat” by mailing ballots to voters overseas, Bruce Heyman felt a surge of enthusiasm.
Heyman, a former U.S. ambassador to Canada under President Barack Obama, is now spearheading efforts to engage American voters living in Canada to back Democrats. He believes that in a tight election, these expatriates could tip the scales.
To Heyman, Trump's statement seemed to acknowledge the Republican nominee recognizes the potential impact of American voters abroad.
“There’s zero chance Donald Trump used that language himself,” Heyman told PMG in Montreal shortly after Trump's post. “It came out of the campaign. The campaign recognizes how many Americans live abroad and the effort we’re putting forth, and they can’t compete against it.”
The presidential contest is so closely contested that Democrats are knocking on doors in Windsor, Ontario, seeking American voters who could sway the outcome in favor of Kamala Harris.
Whenever he has the opportunity, Heyman advocates for voter turnout from Canada — whether during media appearances at the Democratic National Convention, discussions with university students at Concordia and the University of Toronto, or on a global Zoom call for Harris-Walz, one of the Democrats’ online telethons featuring celebrities like Lynda Carter and Jane Fonda.
“I believe in my heart of hearts that Americans living in Canada could determine the outcome of this election,” Heyman told PMG.
Millions of Americans reside outside the U.S., with Canada being home to a significant number of potential voters. While exact figures are uncertain, Canada is estimated to have hundreds of thousands of voting-age Americans, the highest among foreign countries, followed by Mexico and the U.K.
According to the non-partisan Federal Voting Assistance Program, which is managed by the U.S. Department of Defense to assist overseas voters, about 605,697 Americans in Canada are of voting age.
Major Canadian cities are located close to key battleground states like Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania, making them likely residences for important American voters. Some border cities even host Americans who commute daily to the U.S.
Additionally, Maine Democrats are focusing on Canada’s Atlantic provinces because that state allocates electoral votes uniquely.
While both parties are appealing to overseas Americans and military voters, Democrats are intensifying their outreach efforts north of the border.
For the first time, Democratic activists are conducting door-to-door canvassing in Windsor to reach Americans from Michigan who are eligible to vote in this crucial swing state.
“This has been a dream of mine,” remarked Steve Nardi, one of the canvassers and a senior organizer at Democrats Abroad, a 60-year-old offshoot of the Democratic Party recognized at the state level by the DNC, with Heyman playing a key role in their voter initiative in Canada.
Nardi has passionately advocated for grassroots efforts in areas of Canada with high concentrations of Americans. Windsor, sharing a border with Detroit and a history tied to the auto industry, serves as a prime location for these efforts.
So far, the canvassing teams have been small, with only a handful of volunteers at a time. Nonetheless, they have already contacted over a thousand doors, finding it easier to engage with voters due to their non-partisan approach. Their goal is to continue this outreach until October 31, as Michigan voters can request ballots up until November 2.
Heyman highlighted that Michigan’s Democratic Party, Senate candidate Elissa Slotkin, and Governor Gretchen Whitmer are “all-in on getting Michiganders living in Canada to vote.” Slotkin recently served as a keynote speaker at a private fundraiser for Democrats Abroad around the time of the convention.
“We're going to need Americans in Canada to vote this time, and we're going to work hard at getting the vote out,” Heyman said.
On the same day that Trump made his controversial post, Heyman and his wife Vicki, prominent fundraisers for Obama, were preparing to speak to rally young American voters at McGill University.
Kamala Harris once lived in that city as a teenager, and her mother, Shyamala Gopalan Harris, worked as a researcher at the university, which is home to over 2,000 U.S. students, not including dual citizens.
In a graduate lounge reminiscent of a Harry Potter setting, the couple urged the students to consider the potential complications a Trump administration could bring to their lives in Canada.
“This is your tsunami warning,” Heyman cautioned the students in a speech he has tailored to resonate with expatriates, touching on significant concerns such as foreign policy, the U.S.'s reputation abroad, and international trade.
Heyman warned that if Trump were to impose inflationary tariffs of 10 percent, it could spark a trade war with Canada and other allies. He also noted that threatening to detain or deport millions of undocumented migrants could lead to a surge in asylum seekers at Canada’s borders, similar to incidents during the first Trump administration.
To mobilize this voter base, Democrats Abroad is strategically targeting U.S. voters dispersed across 193 countries, focusing particularly on Canadian locations with large American communities. Their campaign budget, approximately C$50,000, is significant by Canadian standards. The DNC has allocated a record $450,000 to support the organization's efforts globally.
“We basically purchased everything that we can get our hands on right around any sort of land or water crossing, all the way up from Quebec and down and around through Ontario and all the way across the plains and into British Columbia, curving all the way up to our Alaskan border,” said Erin Kotecki Vest, Democrats Abroad country chair for Canada.
In British Columbia, they are utilizing digital posters targeting ferry crossings. At the Detroit-Windsor crossing, large billboards have been erected, along with ads near the Ambassador Bridge, which accommodates over 40,000 daily cross-border travelers, and the Blue Water Bridge connecting Sarnia, Ontario, with Port Huron, Michigan.
Fifteen-second spots are airing in movie theaters, and they are considering adding traditional newspaper and radio ads, as they seek to locate all American voters in Canada.
Notably, the campaign emphasizes a straightforward voting message without featuring Harris or Tim Walz in the advertisements. Instead, they provide resources for how to vote from abroad.
The initiative is predicated on the belief that Americans in Canada predominantly lean Democrat. While solid data is scarce, there’s a prevailing assumption that these voters, immersed in the liberal Canadian culture, are likely concerned about a Trump presidency.
Anecdotal evidence supports this. Donations from U.S. citizens in Canada have largely favored the Harris campaign, totaling $152,170, with no significant contributions reported for Trump thus far. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. has raised $26,451 from Canada.
Heyman has been convinced of Harris’ potential for victory since the aftermath of the 2016 election.
As ambassador in Ottawa, he hosted an election-watching event at the Château Laurier, a luxurious hotel frequented by dignitaries.
He vividly recalls that night, with Canadian Cabinet ministers celebrating early results, expecting the first woman president. Yet, Hillary Clinton lost Michigan by 10,704 votes, leaving official Ottawa in disbelief.
In their post-diplomatic careers, Heyman and his wife have sought to understand this outcome. They discovered that approximately 9 million Americans lived abroad before the pandemic, but only about eight percent voted, often unaware of their voting eligibility or how to register.
The couple approached the Biden team in 2020 to champion the international voter initiative, resulting in a non-partisan website funded by the Democrats to assist Americans overseas in casting their ballots.
Despite a decrease in the number of Americans abroad during the pandemic, the total expat votes increased by 73 percent from 2016 to 2020, totaling close to 900,000, according to Heyman.
He believes overseas voters significantly contributed to winning battleground states. He points to the crucial Georgia election in 2020, where 18,000 ballots from abroad were cast in a state Biden won by a mere 11,779, an outcome Trump challenged.
Collectively, 44,000 votes from Georgia, Arizona, and Wisconsin could have been pivotal in preventing a tie in the Electoral College.
But can the votes from Canada truly swing the election?
Richard Johnston, a professor emeritus at the University of British Columbia, believes the Democrats are on the right track.
“There’s sparse evidence on this,” Johnston said. However, “there’s every reason to believe expats are disproportionately Democrat,” and “the closer the race is, the more consequential even small groups can be.”
While it's feasible that votes from Canada could influence the presidential race, Johnston noted there are many variables to consider.
“Are they indeed as one-sided [pro-Democrat] as we suspect? What’s the turnout rate actually going to be? What’s the geography of the states of last residence? If it’s a random draw according to the size of the states, that means there’s a lot of people from New York or California — they’re not going to make a big difference at all."
While the presidential race may be uncertain, Heyman emphasizes that House races hold significance as well.
“These are best guesstimates, as opposed to some deep analysis [from an] exact number, right? So, this is the play,” Heyman said.
“We're talking about small numbers of total votes that will be at the margin, that America is a divided country, and the wisdom of both parties right now is it's going to be very, very close — that they're going to battle out for the marginal voter.”
Debra A Smith contributed to this report for TROIB News
Heyman, a former U.S. ambassador to Canada under President Barack Obama, is now spearheading efforts to engage American voters living in Canada to back Democrats. He believes that in a tight election, these expatriates could tip the scales.
To Heyman, Trump's statement seemed to acknowledge the Republican nominee recognizes the potential impact of American voters abroad.
“There’s zero chance Donald Trump used that language himself,” Heyman told PMG in Montreal shortly after Trump's post. “It came out of the campaign. The campaign recognizes how many Americans live abroad and the effort we’re putting forth, and they can’t compete against it.”
The presidential contest is so closely contested that Democrats are knocking on doors in Windsor, Ontario, seeking American voters who could sway the outcome in favor of Kamala Harris.
Whenever he has the opportunity, Heyman advocates for voter turnout from Canada — whether during media appearances at the Democratic National Convention, discussions with university students at Concordia and the University of Toronto, or on a global Zoom call for Harris-Walz, one of the Democrats’ online telethons featuring celebrities like Lynda Carter and Jane Fonda.
“I believe in my heart of hearts that Americans living in Canada could determine the outcome of this election,” Heyman told PMG.
Millions of Americans reside outside the U.S., with Canada being home to a significant number of potential voters. While exact figures are uncertain, Canada is estimated to have hundreds of thousands of voting-age Americans, the highest among foreign countries, followed by Mexico and the U.K.
According to the non-partisan Federal Voting Assistance Program, which is managed by the U.S. Department of Defense to assist overseas voters, about 605,697 Americans in Canada are of voting age.
Major Canadian cities are located close to key battleground states like Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania, making them likely residences for important American voters. Some border cities even host Americans who commute daily to the U.S.
Additionally, Maine Democrats are focusing on Canada’s Atlantic provinces because that state allocates electoral votes uniquely.
While both parties are appealing to overseas Americans and military voters, Democrats are intensifying their outreach efforts north of the border.
For the first time, Democratic activists are conducting door-to-door canvassing in Windsor to reach Americans from Michigan who are eligible to vote in this crucial swing state.
“This has been a dream of mine,” remarked Steve Nardi, one of the canvassers and a senior organizer at Democrats Abroad, a 60-year-old offshoot of the Democratic Party recognized at the state level by the DNC, with Heyman playing a key role in their voter initiative in Canada.
Nardi has passionately advocated for grassroots efforts in areas of Canada with high concentrations of Americans. Windsor, sharing a border with Detroit and a history tied to the auto industry, serves as a prime location for these efforts.
So far, the canvassing teams have been small, with only a handful of volunteers at a time. Nonetheless, they have already contacted over a thousand doors, finding it easier to engage with voters due to their non-partisan approach. Their goal is to continue this outreach until October 31, as Michigan voters can request ballots up until November 2.
Heyman highlighted that Michigan’s Democratic Party, Senate candidate Elissa Slotkin, and Governor Gretchen Whitmer are “all-in on getting Michiganders living in Canada to vote.” Slotkin recently served as a keynote speaker at a private fundraiser for Democrats Abroad around the time of the convention.
“We're going to need Americans in Canada to vote this time, and we're going to work hard at getting the vote out,” Heyman said.
On the same day that Trump made his controversial post, Heyman and his wife Vicki, prominent fundraisers for Obama, were preparing to speak to rally young American voters at McGill University.
Kamala Harris once lived in that city as a teenager, and her mother, Shyamala Gopalan Harris, worked as a researcher at the university, which is home to over 2,000 U.S. students, not including dual citizens.
In a graduate lounge reminiscent of a Harry Potter setting, the couple urged the students to consider the potential complications a Trump administration could bring to their lives in Canada.
“This is your tsunami warning,” Heyman cautioned the students in a speech he has tailored to resonate with expatriates, touching on significant concerns such as foreign policy, the U.S.'s reputation abroad, and international trade.
Heyman warned that if Trump were to impose inflationary tariffs of 10 percent, it could spark a trade war with Canada and other allies. He also noted that threatening to detain or deport millions of undocumented migrants could lead to a surge in asylum seekers at Canada’s borders, similar to incidents during the first Trump administration.
To mobilize this voter base, Democrats Abroad is strategically targeting U.S. voters dispersed across 193 countries, focusing particularly on Canadian locations with large American communities. Their campaign budget, approximately C$50,000, is significant by Canadian standards. The DNC has allocated a record $450,000 to support the organization's efforts globally.
“We basically purchased everything that we can get our hands on right around any sort of land or water crossing, all the way up from Quebec and down and around through Ontario and all the way across the plains and into British Columbia, curving all the way up to our Alaskan border,” said Erin Kotecki Vest, Democrats Abroad country chair for Canada.
In British Columbia, they are utilizing digital posters targeting ferry crossings. At the Detroit-Windsor crossing, large billboards have been erected, along with ads near the Ambassador Bridge, which accommodates over 40,000 daily cross-border travelers, and the Blue Water Bridge connecting Sarnia, Ontario, with Port Huron, Michigan.
Fifteen-second spots are airing in movie theaters, and they are considering adding traditional newspaper and radio ads, as they seek to locate all American voters in Canada.
Notably, the campaign emphasizes a straightforward voting message without featuring Harris or Tim Walz in the advertisements. Instead, they provide resources for how to vote from abroad.
The initiative is predicated on the belief that Americans in Canada predominantly lean Democrat. While solid data is scarce, there’s a prevailing assumption that these voters, immersed in the liberal Canadian culture, are likely concerned about a Trump presidency.
Anecdotal evidence supports this. Donations from U.S. citizens in Canada have largely favored the Harris campaign, totaling $152,170, with no significant contributions reported for Trump thus far. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. has raised $26,451 from Canada.
Heyman has been convinced of Harris’ potential for victory since the aftermath of the 2016 election.
As ambassador in Ottawa, he hosted an election-watching event at the Château Laurier, a luxurious hotel frequented by dignitaries.
He vividly recalls that night, with Canadian Cabinet ministers celebrating early results, expecting the first woman president. Yet, Hillary Clinton lost Michigan by 10,704 votes, leaving official Ottawa in disbelief.
In their post-diplomatic careers, Heyman and his wife have sought to understand this outcome. They discovered that approximately 9 million Americans lived abroad before the pandemic, but only about eight percent voted, often unaware of their voting eligibility or how to register.
The couple approached the Biden team in 2020 to champion the international voter initiative, resulting in a non-partisan website funded by the Democrats to assist Americans overseas in casting their ballots.
Despite a decrease in the number of Americans abroad during the pandemic, the total expat votes increased by 73 percent from 2016 to 2020, totaling close to 900,000, according to Heyman.
He believes overseas voters significantly contributed to winning battleground states. He points to the crucial Georgia election in 2020, where 18,000 ballots from abroad were cast in a state Biden won by a mere 11,779, an outcome Trump challenged.
Collectively, 44,000 votes from Georgia, Arizona, and Wisconsin could have been pivotal in preventing a tie in the Electoral College.
But can the votes from Canada truly swing the election?
Richard Johnston, a professor emeritus at the University of British Columbia, believes the Democrats are on the right track.
“There’s sparse evidence on this,” Johnston said. However, “there’s every reason to believe expats are disproportionately Democrat,” and “the closer the race is, the more consequential even small groups can be.”
While it's feasible that votes from Canada could influence the presidential race, Johnston noted there are many variables to consider.
“Are they indeed as one-sided [pro-Democrat] as we suspect? What’s the turnout rate actually going to be? What’s the geography of the states of last residence? If it’s a random draw according to the size of the states, that means there’s a lot of people from New York or California — they’re not going to make a big difference at all."
While the presidential race may be uncertain, Heyman emphasizes that House races hold significance as well.
“These are best guesstimates, as opposed to some deep analysis [from an] exact number, right? So, this is the play,” Heyman said.
“We're talking about small numbers of total votes that will be at the margin, that America is a divided country, and the wisdom of both parties right now is it's going to be very, very close — that they're going to battle out for the marginal voter.”
Debra A Smith contributed to this report for TROIB News
