Do House Republicans believe the Trump realignment is permanent?
A redistricting specialist for Republicans offers insights on the implications of the 2024 presidential election results for the House GOP.
TroibNews 
The 2024 election dramatically altered the House landscape, introducing numerous potential battleground seats, especially in regions with significant Latino populations.
What made this shift particularly surprising was that it occurred merely four years after states redrew their congressional maps during the decennial redistricting process, in which partisan strategists endeavor to create safe seats that can endure long-term electoral changes.
Adam Kincaid, the executive director of the National Republican Redistricting Trust and a key figure in Republican redistricting efforts, was among the first to analyze the 2024 election outcomes to evaluate the effectiveness of the new maps.
His conclusion? The overall outlook is promising for the GOP.
“The battleground map is expanding in favor of Republicans, not in favor of Democrats,” he noted.
His analysis identified only three Republicans representing seats won by Vice President Kamala Harris: Reps. Brian Fitzpatrick of Pennsylvania, Mike Lawler of New York, and Don Bacon of Nebraska. President-elect Donald Trump lost Fitzpatrick's and Lawler's districts by just a few thousand votes. This contrasts sharply with the 2022 midterms, where 18 Republicans occupied districts that Joe Biden had won in 2020.
Conversely, there are 13 Democrats in districts that Trump won, up from just five at the cycle's outset.
Additionally, another intriguing category of districts has transitioned from relatively secure Democratic holdings to potentially competitive ones. Kincaid discussed the evolving House map and highlighted why these districts will be crucial to watch in 2026.
This transcript has been edited for length and clarity.
Kincaid emphasized the significance of these emerging battleground districts, which Biden won in 2020, often by substantial margins, but which Trump captured in 2024.
“During the last redistricting cycle, I kept saying, ‘Look, the Democrats are building some of these seats hoping that the Trump coalition that we’ve seen in 2016 and 2020 somehow goes away, right?’ But if the trends continue in this new direction, they will likely have overextended themselves, and that’s exactly what happened with these emerging battleground seats.”
He pointed out specific districts where Democrats occupy Trump-won territory, such as California’s 9th and 13th, New Mexico’s 2nd, Nevada’s 3rd, and Texas’ 28th and 34th, which have all become competitive.
Kincaid also mentioned the surprising shift in the El Paso district, which moved 20 points in a single cycle.
“But they all won reelection. And Trump’s not on the ballot in 2026. Why should we think they are vulnerable?”
“It’s not just a Trump thing. It’s an openness to voting for Republicans. What I think has happened is President Trump has opened up a new set of battleground seats, emerging battleground districts, because these are seats that are shifting away from the Democrats, whether because of their own policies or various actions that have turned off Hispanic and some African-American voters.”
Kincaid questioned the Democratic party's perspective on this shift, stating, “I keep seeing these things about how Democrats don’t believe that these folks are realigning, that this is just a blip on the screen. It’s been a blip for eight years now. How much longer does the blip need to be for it not to be a blip anymore?”
He shared his views on national trends, saying, “I think it’s a reflection of where the country is headed. I don’t think the trends go away just because President Trump no longer runs for president.”
The rapid pace of these shifts, especially within four years, was noteworthy. For example, New Jersey’s 9th District transitioned from a Biden +19 seat to a Trump +1.
“I think realignments happened slowly and then all at once. The one that shocked me the most was New Jersey’s 9th. I was surprised by how quickly the El Paso seat moved.”
Kincaid added, “But the numbers in California — that was what I’ve been watching for a couple of years. California’s 25th — it didn’t become a Trump seat, but it moved a lot. It’s a working-class, heavily Hispanic district. Raul Ruiz finds himself in a battleground seat again. it was Biden +15, and now it’s Harris +2.”
He reiterated that these trends are not random fluctuations: “So, no, I don’t think that these are unpredictable trends. Maybe the speed has been surprising in some places.”
Many of these districts were previously regarded as secure. While they didn’t swing entirely from Biden-won to Trump-won seats, they have shifted from a strong blue to competitive territory. Kincaid pointed to Ruiz and Costa as examples, and highlighted others like Texas’ 16th in El Paso and Indiana’s 1st, the latter of which is now seen as a potential target.
“How has the map shifted in the big picture?” Kincaid explained, “There were 32 seats on the current map that Biden carried by nine points or less. There are now around 50 seats that Harris carried by nine points or less. Going in, there were 36 seats that Trump carried by 9 points or fewer. Now there’s fewer. There’s actually 34 seats, roughly, that Trump carried by nine or fewer. Which to my point: The battleground is moving to the left not to the right. It’s moving further into Democrat territory than it was before. The battleground map is expanding in favor of Republicans, not in favor of Democrats.”
This changing landscape raises questions about Republican prospects for maintaining the majority. “There are 13 Democrats sitting in seats that Donald Trump carried, some of them comfortably, that he carried by a decent margin. Those are obvious tier one targets. There’s a lot of seats that are seats that Biden carried in 2020 but Trump carried in 2024. Democrats have to go into districts that Trump carried and win the majority. You’re not going to do it on Harris turf.”
Kincaid expressed his concerns about premature forecasts for the upcoming elections, remarking, “One thing that always drives me crazy is you’re two years out from the next election, and everyone’s already dooming or celebrating. We don’t know that. Every midterm is not a wave.”
With the instability characteristic of a realignment, Kincaid anticipates variability in results as upcoming elections approach: “When you’re in the middle of a realignment like this, I fully expect that some of these seats are going to snap one direction. Some of them are going to rebound back the other direction. And it’s going to be really interesting for those of us who analyze these things to see how they perform.”
This story first appeared in the Morning Score newsletter. Want to receive this newsletter every weekday? Subscribe to PMG Pro. You’ll also receive daily policy news and other intelligence you need to act on the day’s biggest stories.
Max Fischer contributed to this report for TROIB News
What made this shift particularly surprising was that it occurred merely four years after states redrew their congressional maps during the decennial redistricting process, in which partisan strategists endeavor to create safe seats that can endure long-term electoral changes.
Adam Kincaid, the executive director of the National Republican Redistricting Trust and a key figure in Republican redistricting efforts, was among the first to analyze the 2024 election outcomes to evaluate the effectiveness of the new maps.
His conclusion? The overall outlook is promising for the GOP.
“The battleground map is expanding in favor of Republicans, not in favor of Democrats,” he noted.
His analysis identified only three Republicans representing seats won by Vice President Kamala Harris: Reps. Brian Fitzpatrick of Pennsylvania, Mike Lawler of New York, and Don Bacon of Nebraska. President-elect Donald Trump lost Fitzpatrick's and Lawler's districts by just a few thousand votes. This contrasts sharply with the 2022 midterms, where 18 Republicans occupied districts that Joe Biden had won in 2020.
Conversely, there are 13 Democrats in districts that Trump won, up from just five at the cycle's outset.
Additionally, another intriguing category of districts has transitioned from relatively secure Democratic holdings to potentially competitive ones. Kincaid discussed the evolving House map and highlighted why these districts will be crucial to watch in 2026.
This transcript has been edited for length and clarity.
Kincaid emphasized the significance of these emerging battleground districts, which Biden won in 2020, often by substantial margins, but which Trump captured in 2024.
“During the last redistricting cycle, I kept saying, ‘Look, the Democrats are building some of these seats hoping that the Trump coalition that we’ve seen in 2016 and 2020 somehow goes away, right?’ But if the trends continue in this new direction, they will likely have overextended themselves, and that’s exactly what happened with these emerging battleground seats.”
He pointed out specific districts where Democrats occupy Trump-won territory, such as California’s 9th and 13th, New Mexico’s 2nd, Nevada’s 3rd, and Texas’ 28th and 34th, which have all become competitive.
Kincaid also mentioned the surprising shift in the El Paso district, which moved 20 points in a single cycle.
“But they all won reelection. And Trump’s not on the ballot in 2026. Why should we think they are vulnerable?”
“It’s not just a Trump thing. It’s an openness to voting for Republicans. What I think has happened is President Trump has opened up a new set of battleground seats, emerging battleground districts, because these are seats that are shifting away from the Democrats, whether because of their own policies or various actions that have turned off Hispanic and some African-American voters.”
Kincaid questioned the Democratic party's perspective on this shift, stating, “I keep seeing these things about how Democrats don’t believe that these folks are realigning, that this is just a blip on the screen. It’s been a blip for eight years now. How much longer does the blip need to be for it not to be a blip anymore?”
He shared his views on national trends, saying, “I think it’s a reflection of where the country is headed. I don’t think the trends go away just because President Trump no longer runs for president.”
The rapid pace of these shifts, especially within four years, was noteworthy. For example, New Jersey’s 9th District transitioned from a Biden +19 seat to a Trump +1.
“I think realignments happened slowly and then all at once. The one that shocked me the most was New Jersey’s 9th. I was surprised by how quickly the El Paso seat moved.”
Kincaid added, “But the numbers in California — that was what I’ve been watching for a couple of years. California’s 25th — it didn’t become a Trump seat, but it moved a lot. It’s a working-class, heavily Hispanic district. Raul Ruiz finds himself in a battleground seat again. it was Biden +15, and now it’s Harris +2.”
He reiterated that these trends are not random fluctuations: “So, no, I don’t think that these are unpredictable trends. Maybe the speed has been surprising in some places.”
Many of these districts were previously regarded as secure. While they didn’t swing entirely from Biden-won to Trump-won seats, they have shifted from a strong blue to competitive territory. Kincaid pointed to Ruiz and Costa as examples, and highlighted others like Texas’ 16th in El Paso and Indiana’s 1st, the latter of which is now seen as a potential target.
“How has the map shifted in the big picture?” Kincaid explained, “There were 32 seats on the current map that Biden carried by nine points or less. There are now around 50 seats that Harris carried by nine points or less. Going in, there were 36 seats that Trump carried by 9 points or fewer. Now there’s fewer. There’s actually 34 seats, roughly, that Trump carried by nine or fewer. Which to my point: The battleground is moving to the left not to the right. It’s moving further into Democrat territory than it was before. The battleground map is expanding in favor of Republicans, not in favor of Democrats.”
This changing landscape raises questions about Republican prospects for maintaining the majority. “There are 13 Democrats sitting in seats that Donald Trump carried, some of them comfortably, that he carried by a decent margin. Those are obvious tier one targets. There’s a lot of seats that are seats that Biden carried in 2020 but Trump carried in 2024. Democrats have to go into districts that Trump carried and win the majority. You’re not going to do it on Harris turf.”
Kincaid expressed his concerns about premature forecasts for the upcoming elections, remarking, “One thing that always drives me crazy is you’re two years out from the next election, and everyone’s already dooming or celebrating. We don’t know that. Every midterm is not a wave.”
With the instability characteristic of a realignment, Kincaid anticipates variability in results as upcoming elections approach: “When you’re in the middle of a realignment like this, I fully expect that some of these seats are going to snap one direction. Some of them are going to rebound back the other direction. And it’s going to be really interesting for those of us who analyze these things to see how they perform.”
This story first appeared in the Morning Score newsletter. Want to receive this newsletter every weekday? Subscribe to PMG Pro. You’ll also receive daily policy news and other intelligence you need to act on the day’s biggest stories.
Max Fischer contributed to this report for TROIB News
