Anxiety over a potential shutdown increases on Capitol Hill amid chaos under Trump

Washington is increasingly concerned about the possibility of a government shutdown and the potential devastation it could cause.

Anxiety over a potential shutdown increases on Capitol Hill amid chaos under Trump
The president presiding over the longest government shutdown in U.S. history has made his return to the White House, and with current government funding set to expire in less than six weeks, tensions are rising on Capitol Hill.

Concerns among lawmakers extend beyond President Donald Trump’s history of overseeing a 35-day funding lapse; his actions in the initial weeks back in office are hindering bipartisan discussions aimed at securing a funding deal. Trump, alongside his “government efficiency” chief Elon Musk, is attempting to overhaul the federal bureaucracy while putting a freeze on billions already allocated by Congress and terminating federal workers.

“I don't think anybody thinks a shutdown is a good thing. But the politics are such that we could certainly stumble into one without meaning to,” House Appropriations Chair Tom Cole, an Oklahoma Republican, remarked in a brief interview on Tuesday.

Trump's confrontational start has created a particularly challenging environment on Capitol Hill for reaching any bipartisan agreement, whether that be a comprehensive funding deal before the shutdown deadline or an arrangement to raise the debt limit to avert defaulting on over $36 trillion in loans in the near future.

While the House’s Democratic leader insists that Trump’s funding freeze must be “choked off” as a condition of any funding agreement, Republican lawmakers argue that Democrats would bear the consequences if they maintain that stance. Thus, the blame game regarding a potential shutdown resumes.

“The president issued an executive order to curb spending. I highly doubt Republicans are going to rescind that. I don't see that happening,” asserted Rep. Lisa McClain, chair of the House Republican Conference, late Tuesday. “That’s on Dems if they want to shut it down.”

Behind closed doors, Cole and the three other top appropriators in Congress are working to forge a bipartisan agreement for the first step towards funding the government by the March 14 deadline: establishing an overall spending total for military and non-defense programs. Typically, it requires at least a month to negotiate and finalize the twelve individual funding bills thereafter. Time is running short.

Democrats at the negotiating table express frustration, stating that any good-faith agreement with Republicans feels futile if Trump chooses to exercise “impoundment,” withholding funds passed into law.

“If the White House is not going to honor an agreement and use impoundment, then it is hard to come to agreement,” Washington Sen. Patty Murray, the Senate’s leading Democratic appropriator, commented in a brief interview on Tuesday.

Democrats are advocating for Trump to reverse the freeze on foreign aid and the billions earmarked for federal contractors and local governments, as well as to halt Musk’s plans to dismantle agencies like the U.S. Agency for International Development. They also seek assurances that Trump will sign and adhere to any bipartisan funding agreement reached in the coming weeks, especially after he and Musk influenced GOP leaders to reject the December spending package that had received previous approval from all parties.

“We need assurances. That’s all I’m going to say,” Murray stated.

The four main funding leaders in Congress — Murray, Cole, Senate Appropriations Chair Susan Collins, and House Democratic appropriator Rep. Rosa DeLauro of Connecticut — have all acknowledged one another’s efforts.

“Everybody in the room of goodwill, wanted to move forward,” DeLauro explained regarding the negotiations taking place between the so-called “four corners.”

However, DeLauro remains cautious. “Don't tell me that all bets are off. That we’re going to come to a deal … and then all of a sudden Elon Musk or some other self-subscribed unchecked billionaire decides it’s not to his liking. Hell no.”

Trump learned hard lessons from the repercussions of the government shutdown that occurred in late 2018 and early 2019 when funding for parts of the federal government lapsed for five weeks during negotiations over border wall funding, which ended in a loss for him.

“I actually don't think Donald Trump — having been through it — I don't think he found it rewarding,” Sen. Kevin Cramer stated on Tuesday. “So I think he's pretty serious about getting something done.”

Cramer, a North Dakota Republican, also highlighted another crucial factor: the intense frustration among lawmakers in the minority party, who have the potential to derail any funding bill, especially given the slim Republican majorities in both chambers. Particularly in the House, there are several fiscal conservatives who consistently oppose funding bills, meaning Democratic support will be essential for any funding proposal to pass.

“God, I hope that doesn’t happen. I mean, I really don’t,” Cramer expressed regarding the likelihood of a shutdown in March. “The Democrats aren’t in much of a mood to help.”

If key lawmakers fail to reach an agreement to fund the government, or if Trump decides against honoring that agreement, he would exert control over federal operations that would continue past the March 14 deadline.

In an attempt to mitigate the public impact of the partial government shutdown in 2019, his administration utilized park entrance fees to keep national parks operational, a decision federal watchdogs later found to be illegal. With Musk now empowered to direct entire government offices to reduce staff or cease operations altogether, the consequences of a funding lapse could be more significant this time around.

As shutdowns tend to worsen the longer they persist, benefits like SNAP food assistance could eventually be withheld.

“These things get worse and worse and worse the longer they go on,” said Bobby Kogan, who previously served as an adviser to the White House budget director during the Biden administration.

Kogan, now working for the liberal Center for American Progress, expressed skepticism about the notion that Trump would intentionally initiate a shutdown as a strategy to curb spending, stressing that shutdowns are overwhelmingly unpopular.

Nonetheless, Trump’s funding freeze and refusal to adhere to spending caps established two years ago by then-Speaker Kevin McCarthy and President Joe Biden pose a “real risk.”

Katherine Tully-McManus contributed to this report.

James del Carmen contributed to this report for TROIB News