Ann Selzer to Exit Election Polling Following Iowa Misstep
The renowned pollster is concluding her long-standing association with the Des Moines Register, a connection that began in 1997.
TroibNews 
Two weeks after her firm mistakenly identified Vice President Kamala Harris gaining ground in increasingly Republican Iowa, pollster J. Ann Selzer announced on Sunday that she is leaving election polling and concluding her long association with the Des Moines Register, a relationship that began in 1997.
“Over a year ago I advised the Register I would not renew when my 2024 contract expired with the latest election poll as I transition to other ventures and opportunities,” Selzer expressed in an op-ed for the newspaper.
The last Des Moines Register poll, which was released the Saturday prior to the election, showed Harris and Donald Trump in a tight race, a surprising outcome in a state deemed non-competitive. However, unofficial results indicated that Trump secured Iowa by a margin of 13 points, winning 56 percent to 43 percent.
“Would I have liked to make this announcement after a final poll aligned with Election Day results? Of course,” Selzer noted. “It’s ironic that it’s just the opposite. I am proud of the work I’ve done for the Register, for the Detroit Free Press, for the Indianapolis Star, for Bloomberg News and for other public and private organizations interested in elections. They were great clients and were happy with my work.”
Over the last two decades, the Iowa poll has gained a legendary reputation, primarily due to the state’s importance in the presidential nominating process. It was the sole survey to accurately predict the ranking of Democratic candidates in the 2004 caucuses. Selzer's last poll before the 2008 caucuses foresaw a surge of first-time caucus-goers for Barack Obama, leading to his decisive victory.
Selzer also identified former Pennsylvania Senator Rick Santorum’s rise in the final days leading up to the 2012 GOP caucuses, a trend that few others recognized.
"The first time he ever broke double digits was our first night of interviewing in the final poll,” Selzer recalled earlier this year. “And then the next night, it was more. And the next night, it was more. And the next night, it was more. And even though the average ended up being, I think, 15 percent, the trajectory was what the story in the Register got written about, which is that Rick Santorum could surprise. And he ended up winning.”
Selzer has also found success in general elections. In 2014, her final Register poll for the Iowa Senate race indicated Republican Joni Ernst ahead by 7 points, in contrast to other polls that suggested a much tighter race against Democrat Bruce Braley. Braley’s campaign criticized the poll as an “outlier,” yet Ernst triumphed by 9 points.
Similarly, four years ago, during the Iowa contests featuring Trump and now-President Joe Biden, Selzer's findings showed both Trump and Ernst significantly leading in their campaigns, contrary to other polling that indicated close races. Both Republicans won decisively.
As of now, an analysis of the final 2024 poll has not disclosed any clear reasons for the misprediction of Trump's dominant win in the state, the Register reported on Sunday.
The Register is “evaluating the best ways to continue surveys that will provide accurate information and insight about issues that matter to Iowans,” editor Carol Hunter conveyed in a column on Sunday. “The Iowa Poll has been an important legacy indicator and we recognize the need to evolve and find new ways to accurately take the pulse of Iowans on state and national issues.”
This will mark the first time since the late '90s that Selzer won’t be involved, even though Iowa is set to play a significant role in the upcoming presidential race. Although the Democratic nominating schedule is still uncertain, the Iowa caucuses are expected to be the inaugural contest on the Republican side, with Trump ineligible to seek a third term due to constitutional restrictions.
Throughout her career of identifying trends overlooked by others, Selzer has consistently relied on her data, even when it contradicted the views of fellow pollsters.
“My integrity means a lot to me,” she stated on Sunday. “To those who have questioned it, there are likely no words to dissuade. For those who know me best, I appreciate the supportive notes and calls reminding me that what drew me to them as friends, colleagues, and clients was commitment to truth and accuracy — both in my professional and my personal relationships."
Selzer's steadfast dedication to adhering to the data has resulted in some anxious moments throughout her career, particularly as election polling has become more challenging over the past decade.
“When I go to bed the night before caucus, I think, ‘There’s nothing I regret. There isn’t something I could have done that I should have done,’” Selzer shared in a 2015 interview. “So we may not get it right the next time, but I’ve said that the last several elections because it is getting harder. But what I can do is pledge to my clients I will take my best shot.”
Jessica Kline contributed to this report for TROIB News
“Over a year ago I advised the Register I would not renew when my 2024 contract expired with the latest election poll as I transition to other ventures and opportunities,” Selzer expressed in an op-ed for the newspaper.
The last Des Moines Register poll, which was released the Saturday prior to the election, showed Harris and Donald Trump in a tight race, a surprising outcome in a state deemed non-competitive. However, unofficial results indicated that Trump secured Iowa by a margin of 13 points, winning 56 percent to 43 percent.
“Would I have liked to make this announcement after a final poll aligned with Election Day results? Of course,” Selzer noted. “It’s ironic that it’s just the opposite. I am proud of the work I’ve done for the Register, for the Detroit Free Press, for the Indianapolis Star, for Bloomberg News and for other public and private organizations interested in elections. They were great clients and were happy with my work.”
Over the last two decades, the Iowa poll has gained a legendary reputation, primarily due to the state’s importance in the presidential nominating process. It was the sole survey to accurately predict the ranking of Democratic candidates in the 2004 caucuses. Selzer's last poll before the 2008 caucuses foresaw a surge of first-time caucus-goers for Barack Obama, leading to his decisive victory.
Selzer also identified former Pennsylvania Senator Rick Santorum’s rise in the final days leading up to the 2012 GOP caucuses, a trend that few others recognized.
"The first time he ever broke double digits was our first night of interviewing in the final poll,” Selzer recalled earlier this year. “And then the next night, it was more. And the next night, it was more. And the next night, it was more. And even though the average ended up being, I think, 15 percent, the trajectory was what the story in the Register got written about, which is that Rick Santorum could surprise. And he ended up winning.”
Selzer has also found success in general elections. In 2014, her final Register poll for the Iowa Senate race indicated Republican Joni Ernst ahead by 7 points, in contrast to other polls that suggested a much tighter race against Democrat Bruce Braley. Braley’s campaign criticized the poll as an “outlier,” yet Ernst triumphed by 9 points.
Similarly, four years ago, during the Iowa contests featuring Trump and now-President Joe Biden, Selzer's findings showed both Trump and Ernst significantly leading in their campaigns, contrary to other polling that indicated close races. Both Republicans won decisively.
As of now, an analysis of the final 2024 poll has not disclosed any clear reasons for the misprediction of Trump's dominant win in the state, the Register reported on Sunday.
The Register is “evaluating the best ways to continue surveys that will provide accurate information and insight about issues that matter to Iowans,” editor Carol Hunter conveyed in a column on Sunday. “The Iowa Poll has been an important legacy indicator and we recognize the need to evolve and find new ways to accurately take the pulse of Iowans on state and national issues.”
This will mark the first time since the late '90s that Selzer won’t be involved, even though Iowa is set to play a significant role in the upcoming presidential race. Although the Democratic nominating schedule is still uncertain, the Iowa caucuses are expected to be the inaugural contest on the Republican side, with Trump ineligible to seek a third term due to constitutional restrictions.
Throughout her career of identifying trends overlooked by others, Selzer has consistently relied on her data, even when it contradicted the views of fellow pollsters.
“My integrity means a lot to me,” she stated on Sunday. “To those who have questioned it, there are likely no words to dissuade. For those who know me best, I appreciate the supportive notes and calls reminding me that what drew me to them as friends, colleagues, and clients was commitment to truth and accuracy — both in my professional and my personal relationships."
Selzer's steadfast dedication to adhering to the data has resulted in some anxious moments throughout her career, particularly as election polling has become more challenging over the past decade.
“When I go to bed the night before caucus, I think, ‘There’s nothing I regret. There isn’t something I could have done that I should have done,’” Selzer shared in a 2015 interview. “So we may not get it right the next time, but I’ve said that the last several elections because it is getting harder. But what I can do is pledge to my clients I will take my best shot.”
Jessica Kline contributed to this report for TROIB News
