What Has Biden Achieved?
President Joe Biden had only one term to reshape the nation's strategies concerning energy, climate change, technology, and employment. What legacy does he leave behind?
TroibNews 
Joe Biden began his presidency by directing plans to allocate at least $1.6 trillion to transform the economy and ignite a clean-energy revolution. However, many of these initiatives have now become sidelined in the context of the upcoming 2024 election.
Much of his domestic legacy appears unfinished, with hundreds of billions left to spend, while the future of these programs hangs in the balance as Donald Trump prepares to take over.
An extensive analysis of Biden’s spending and tax policies indicates potential for a lasting impact, yet highlights areas where his agenda has not fully gained traction. This comes after significant investments in technologies such as batteries, solar cells, computer chips, and clean water; efforts to attract foreign factories to the U.S.; and turning some previously resistant red-state Republicans into proponents of green energy.
Throughout 2024, PMG's "Biden's Billions" series has captured the slow progress and tangible economic effects of Biden’s spending plan, which rivals Franklin Roosevelt’s New Deal. As Biden’s term nears its end, it remains uncertain if his legacy will stand the test of time.
A significant portion of Biden’s initiatives is still unfolding. Although solar installations have reached historic highs, the country is not generating enough zero-carbon electricity to achieve Biden's climate goals. The $42 billion broadband internet initiative has yet to connect any households. Additionally, bureaucratic delays, equipment shortages, and logistical challenges have hindered a $7.5 billion project to deploy electric vehicle chargers across the nation, resulting in only 47 stations in 15 states thus far.
Republicans have voiced intentions to scrutinize Biden’s spending, potentially aiming to retract funds including those allocated for the EV manufacturer Rivian. The elimination of electric vehicle tax credits is also on the table.
Overall, Congress allocated $1.1 trillion for Biden’s ambitious climate, clean energy, and infrastructure initiatives. At least $561 billion of that funding remains unallocated or unavailable for agencies to utilize, according to PMG’s analysis of federal records. Lawmakers also approved roughly $551 billion in tax incentives for clean energy and semiconductor production, which sparked approximately $160 billion in private-sector clean energy manufacturing investments poised to create about 167,000 jobs, per data from Atlas Public Policy.
Moreover, since Biden’s administration commenced, an additional $446 billion has been announced for semiconductor and electronics manufacturing, according to the White House. Yet, many of these initiatives are still in the planning phase. Their realization may hinge on whether Trump and his congressional allies alter tax credits, adjust grant programs, or eliminate them entirely, especially as the president-elect advocates for his own substantial tax cuts.
“I think that we'll look back years from now and we'll say that this is when America had the chance to get in the game and lead in one of the biggest and most important economic revolutions in history,” remarked Bob Keefe, executive director of the national clean energy business group E2.
“The question to be answered in the months ahead is, will we do so or will we continue to fall behind and ultimately lose out to other countries?”
Biden himself has acknowledged that his economic initiatives are at a crucial juncture. In a recent op-ed for The American Prospect, he stated that “the next four years will determine whether the incoming administration builds on this strength.”
Though Trump’s transition team has not commented, other Republicans have been critical of Biden's achievements. “President Biden punished the economy without helping the environment. That's what he did. That's his record as president in the United States,” asserted Wyoming Sen. John Barrasso, who is set to become the No. 2 Republican in the Senate next year.
The foundation of Biden’s energy, technology, and infrastructure legacy lies in four major bills passed during the first two years of his term. The first was a fraction of the $1.9 trillion American Rescue Plan, primarily aimed at addressing the Covid-19 pandemic but which also allocated funds for infrastructure improvements. The bipartisan infrastructure law authorized funding for rebuilding roads and bridges, modernizing airports, and replacing lead pipes, while also covering electric vehicle chargers, public transport, broadband expansion, and battery manufacturing. The CHIPS and Science Act provided $54.2 billion in appropriations and around $24 billion in tax incentives for chipmakers establishing U.S. factories and for research initiatives essential for next-gen microchips.
Culminating these efforts was the Inflation Reduction Act, a climate law aimed at injecting an estimated $527 billion into tax credits for green power facilities, vehicles, and factories, along with bonuses for companies sourcing domestically and hiring union workers, according to a 2023 analysis by the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget. This law also allocated $145 billion for climate and energy grant and loan programs.
All four pieces of legislation combined represent at least $1.6 trillion in funding and incentives for Biden’s priorities, exceeding the inflation-adjusted cost of Roosevelt's response to the Great Depression.
These bills illustrated a novel approach to domestic policy, as Biden blended progressive objectives, like combating climate change and rectifying historical social and economic inequalities, with blue-collar priorities such as revamping infrastructure and rejuvenating manufacturing in the U.S.
“We stopped asking the question, ‘What do we need to shut down?’ and we started asking the question, ‘What do we need to build?’” said John Podesta, a senior climate adviser to the president.
“ I think the president fully embraced that theory of the case: What do we need to build? What do we need to invest in? How do we spread the fruits of that to communities that have been left out and left behind?”
Signs of Biden’s initiatives are becoming evident across the nation, with thousands engaged in constructing massive chip factories in Arizona, Ohio, and Texas, poised to become industrial centers. Some facilities are scheduled to begin operations next year, such as a technologically advanced chipmaking plant being built in Phoenix by Taiwanese company TSMC.
Biden has also aimed to address existing disparities by implementing government-wide measures to ensure that historically polluted communities benefit from the transition to cleaner energy sources.
As various projects funded by Biden begin to materialize, such as a $7 billion initiative to install solar panels in low-income neighborhoods, the tangible outcomes of this funding will help solidify his legacy, noted Tony Reames, a University of Michigan professor who played a role in the Energy Department’s environmental justice efforts during Biden’s tenure.
Yet, he acknowledged that many voters have not perceived the advantages of Biden’s initiatives ahead of the election. Addressing long-standing inequalities is not a quick process, Reames admitted, adding, “I was probably a little naive about the time it takes to make transformational change.”
These challenges weighed heavily on Vice President Kamala Harris’ campaign. Reports from voters in swing states like Pennsylvania and Nevada indicated that Biden’s climate and energy policies didn’t rank as high-priority issues, despite significant clean energy initiatives occurring in their areas. Just days prior to Election Day, fewer than three out of ten voters felt that Biden’s major legislative achievements had positively impacted their lives and communities, leading Harris to focus her campaign on issues such as the cost of living, reproductive rights, and the perceived threat posed by Trump to democratic values.
As the Biden administration prepares to exit the White House next month, officials indicated that agencies have allocated 98 percent of the available funds. However, these announcements often merely mark the initial stage of ensuring the funds are ultimately disbursed. For most funding, the next step involves obligating the funds, a phase experts say provides legal and contractual security against potential retraction.
Most importantly, the deployment of these funds plays a critical role in everyday life. According to a PMG analysis of federal spending data, recipients under Biden’s administration have disbursed less than 28 percent of the total appropriations for the significant energy, technology, and infrastructure programs as of this fall.
Concerning private investments under Biden’s initiatives, roughly 45 percent of the estimated $160 billion in clean energy manufacturing investments announced after the Inflation Reduction Act’s passage are still in the planning stage as of early December, according to Atlas data.
Besides the challenges of deploying such vast sums, Biden’s green energy agenda confronts practical barriers, including a strained electric grid that may struggle to accommodate a substantial influx of new energy. The federal permitting process for renewable energy projects is also slow, even with bipartisan calls for its streamlining.
Consequently, the quantity of new low-carbon electricity ventures is lower than many energy modelers initially anticipated at the IRA's passage two years ago. Projections of U.S. greenhouse gas reductions have also fallen short of the administration’s objectives; estimates from the Rhodium Group indicate that the nation’s climate emissions were 18 percent lower than 2005 levels in 2023, which is significantly below Biden’s target of a 50 percent reduction by the decade's end.
For Democrats who dedicated years to enacting laws intended to combat climate change, Biden’s presidency marks a significant leap forward.
“I think that he will be viewed as the most important climate president in history,” stated Sen. Ed Markey, a Massachusetts Democrat who co-authored a climate bill that passed the House 15 years ago but fell short in the Senate despite a Democratic supermajority.
“I think that his three climate pillars of jobs and justice and climate action will forever be the formula that is used in dealing with climate-related issues,” Markey said.
Most Republicans, however, perceive Biden’s legacy as a prime example of Washington’s failings: a government recklessly expending funds on initiatives that they argue threaten the stability of the electric grid, increase reliance on China, and burden consumers with higher energy costs.
Despite this, many projects affiliated with Biden’s agenda are commencing in red districts, with Atlas data indicating that approximately $120 billion, or 75 percent, of announced investments in clean energy manufacturing are headed to these areas.
Rep. Carol Miller, a West Virginia Republican and member of the House Ways and Means Committee, criticized Biden for “upending American energy production” and permitting “China to infiltrate our supply chains.”
“It is essential that President Trump’s energy agenda be implemented immediately to lower costs, increase reliability and improve grid efficiency,” she asserted.
On the semiconductor front, Biden might have a better chance for lasting influence, as Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo has already executed contracts for approximately 85 percent of the manufacturing subsidies designated under the CHIPS Act, promising to formally allocate nearly all of this essential funding in her agency’s budget by Inauguration Day.
John Neuffer, president and CEO of the semiconductor industry’s premier advocate in Washington, expressed optimism that Trump’s determined effort to outcompete China would help sustain these initiatives. “The overarching message is: If we don't have some continuation of incentives in place, we will go back to square one, and that doesn't seem like it's good for America,” Neuffer stated.
Trump, however, has made it clear that he aims to reclaim significant parts of Biden’s agenda. His strategy for stimulating domestic manufacturing leans toward deregulation and stringent trade enforcement, moving away from many of Biden's priorities.
“All of the trillions of dollars that are sitting there not yet spent, we will redirect that money for important projects like roads, bridges, dams and we will not allow it to be spent on meaningless Green New Scam ideas,” Trump declared at his convention acceptance speech in July.
Much of Biden's Investing in America strategy has already been allocated toward projects like roads and bridges, with the Department of Transportation being the largest beneficiary of the funding from the aforementioned laws.
Trump has also promised to rescind the "unspent" funds of the Inflation Reduction Act, criticized the CHIPS Act as a “bad” deal, and persistently condemned Biden's backing of certain technologies like electric vehicles and wind energy.
The incoming president will have various options at his disposal.
Biden’s attempts to leverage climate action through agricultural policy have relied on existing conservation programs that have seen demand outstrip available funds. The IRA boosted these programs by $20 billion, and the Department of Agriculture will likely have the majority of this funding available for the next administration.
Since the beginning, Republicans have lobbied to remove the IRA’s "climate guardrails,” making it possible for this funding to be diverted to other priorities. This dynamic has complicated recent bipartisan negotiations surrounding critical government funding.
A similar scenario might occur with energy initiatives, as lobbyists and industry leaders have expressed a growing consensus that Republicans may maintain IRA tax credits supporting traditional GOP priorities such as nuclear energy, financial aid for fossil fuel companies to capture carbon emissions, or manufacturing projects in conservative districts.
“No doubt the Trump administration will do some things differently, but you’re going to see some momentum drive forward,” said Jeremy Harrell, CEO of ClearPath, a conservative clean energy organization. “And the durability of this push to meet rising electricity demand and grow American manufacturing competitiveness is something that both parties have some strong agreement on.”
However, the uncertainty surrounding these matters places businesses in a difficult position regarding planned investments and the related jobs.
“If the implementation of that legislation is not successful, its impact is obviously incredibly, incredibly stunted,” warned Ben Catt, CEO of Pine Gate Renewables. His company has recently secured permits for a massive solar and storage installation in Oregon and had intended to use domestically produced components.
“I need to know that I can actually procure domestic content and that we're not going to gut a provision inside of the IRA that is currently incentivizing that domestic content,” he cautioned.
Earlier this year, 18 Republicans from districts experiencing IRA-driven investments urged party leadership to avoid a complete repeal of the law, a remarkable alliance given the narrow margins House Republicans will maintain next year. House Speaker Mike Johnson has suggested that the party will opt for a “scalpel” approach rather than a sledgehammer.
Rep. Brett Guthrie of Kentucky, set to chair the House Energy and Commerce Committee, stated in an interview that Republicans would need to evaluate how businesses are utilizing IRA tax incentives before making any alterations. “Some businesses have invested money based on those programs being in place,” he noted.
In recent weeks, Republicans have outlined their priorities, with Barrasso calling for the elimination of the consumer tax credit, which offers up to $7,500 off electric vehicle purchases, describing it as a “Biden car bribe” and “one of the most wasteful policies that we’ve seen from this administration in the last four years.”
Trump’s transition team is also advocating for the removal of the electric vehicle tax credit and to redirect Biden’s EV charger funding, as reported by Reuters. This aligns with Trump's attacks on EVs throughout his campaign and Tesla CEO and Trump advisor Elon Musk’s calls for the removal of subsidies industry-wide. Nevertheless, executing such changes may prove challenging, as much of the charger funding has already been allocated to state governments.
Republicans have likewise criticized the infrastructure law’s $42 billion initiative to make broadband service available to all Americans by 2030. No households have been connected under this program due to initial bureaucratic setbacks and subsequent negotiations over affordability standards between the Commerce Department and states.
“That program has achieved nothing. Deleted,” Musk wrote on his platform X in mid-November, shortly after Trump appointed him to lead a government efficiency commission. Sen. Joni Ernst, who supports Musk’s initiatives, argued that Trump should “pull the plug.” More than half of the program’s funding, approximately $24.7 billion, had been obligated as of early December, per federal spending records.
The administration counters that it has connected millions of households to the internet through other funding sources, including pandemic relief packages, and highlights the $42 billion program's ancillary benefits, such as boosting domestic telecom manufacturing.
The Energy Department's loan office, once criticized for the Obama administration’s failed $535 million loan guarantee to Solyndra, has since transformed under Biden to support emergent clean energy technologies critical for advancing his agenda. The office has announced $74 billion in financing for significant clean energy and advanced technology initiatives, including nine conditional awards totaling over $35 billion since the presidential election.
In recent weeks, the pace of the office has quickened as businesses strive to secure financing ahead of Trump’s administration. However, some opponents of the office’s Biden-era policies are advocating for a freeze on spending until Trump takes office. Vivek Ramaswamy, who will co-chair the incoming administration’s efficiency panel with Musk, has stated that items such as the Energy Department’s recent $6.6 billion conditional loan to Rivian are “high on the list of items” he seeks to reverse.
Many within the clean energy sector still anticipate growth in low-carbon technologies under Trump, spurred on by declining costs, climate policies in blue states, and surge in energy demand. However, some industry figures are opting to await clarity from Washington before progressing with significant projects.
Joe Mastrangelo, CEO of Eos Energy Enterprises, a battery manufacturer in the Pittsburgh area, expressed confidence that Republicans would preserve tax credits for domestic energy manufacturing, motivated by the increasing energy requirements from data centers and artificial intelligence, as well as competing with countries like China. Mastrangelo also noted that Trump may enhance the energy sector by easing permitting bottlenecks that hinder new project deployment.
Eos, which employs nearly 400 individuals, secured a $303.5 million loan guarantee through the Energy Department last year, making it a beneficiary of the IRA tax incentives.
Mastrangelo cautioned against the U.S. repeating the mistakes of past dominant corporations that failed to adapt to emerging trends.
“Why didn't Kodak do a digital camera? Because they've had a film business,” he remarked, citing a historical corporate miscalculation. “We’ve got to be careful as a country that we don't let that mindset creep in because the world's going to change. We should lead it versus be left out of it.”
Some industry insiders, however, have already perceived a decrease in clean energy market activity.
Climate startups typically design technologies with the expectation of meeting new pollution regulations, and their business models often anticipate acquisition by larger firms within five years, explained Kevin Dutt, interim CEO of Greentown Labs, a notable climate incubator in Cambridge, Massachusetts.
However, potential future buyers may find such businesses less appealing if a new administration pledges to roll back pollution regulations, as Trump has indicated. “We’re going to see a very big swing the other way,” Dutt said. “Investors on the climate tech side are slower and more cautious to invest.”
In some instances, companies are hastening to finalize contracts with the Biden administration to circumvent possible challenges after Trump assumes office. Fourteen chip manufacturers are still engaged in discussions with the Commerce Department, and some are bracing for the possibility that negotiations may extend beyond Inauguration Day.
“We are on an aggressive timeline to secure an award as soon as possible in order to start our project,” stated Thomas Sonderman, CEO of SkyWater Technology, a chipmaker negotiating a $16 million grant.
Yet, despite the sharply divergent political narratives in Washington, Trump and Biden may end up sharing a legacy, as noted by Arjun Murti, a former Goldman Sachs partner and energy analyst.
The era of unabashed support for free trade that prevailed under both Republican and Democratic administrations has given way to an America First economic approach, prioritizing domestic manufacturing and jobs.
He predicted that efforts to reduce carbon emissions would persist under Trump, driven more by competition with China to develop low-carbon technologies than from adherence to the Paris climate agreement.
“We can certainly debate the efficacy of specific provisions within the IRA and what’s going to last and what’s not going to last,” Murti said. “But the bigger idea [that] we need to reshore domestic manufacturing, that's a Trump idea. It was a Biden idea. It's absolutely bipartisan, and I think that's going to be his biggest legacy.”
Josh Siegel, John Hendel, Christine Mui, Marcia Brown, Jean Chemnick, Daniel Cusick, Hannah Northey, Brian Dabbs, Mike Lee, Scott Waldman, Anne Mulkern, Scott Waldman and Alexander Nieves contributed to this report.
Ramin Sohrabi contributed to this report for TROIB News
Much of his domestic legacy appears unfinished, with hundreds of billions left to spend, while the future of these programs hangs in the balance as Donald Trump prepares to take over.
An extensive analysis of Biden’s spending and tax policies indicates potential for a lasting impact, yet highlights areas where his agenda has not fully gained traction. This comes after significant investments in technologies such as batteries, solar cells, computer chips, and clean water; efforts to attract foreign factories to the U.S.; and turning some previously resistant red-state Republicans into proponents of green energy.
Throughout 2024, PMG's "Biden's Billions" series has captured the slow progress and tangible economic effects of Biden’s spending plan, which rivals Franklin Roosevelt’s New Deal. As Biden’s term nears its end, it remains uncertain if his legacy will stand the test of time.
A significant portion of Biden’s initiatives is still unfolding. Although solar installations have reached historic highs, the country is not generating enough zero-carbon electricity to achieve Biden's climate goals. The $42 billion broadband internet initiative has yet to connect any households. Additionally, bureaucratic delays, equipment shortages, and logistical challenges have hindered a $7.5 billion project to deploy electric vehicle chargers across the nation, resulting in only 47 stations in 15 states thus far.
Republicans have voiced intentions to scrutinize Biden’s spending, potentially aiming to retract funds including those allocated for the EV manufacturer Rivian. The elimination of electric vehicle tax credits is also on the table.
Overall, Congress allocated $1.1 trillion for Biden’s ambitious climate, clean energy, and infrastructure initiatives. At least $561 billion of that funding remains unallocated or unavailable for agencies to utilize, according to PMG’s analysis of federal records. Lawmakers also approved roughly $551 billion in tax incentives for clean energy and semiconductor production, which sparked approximately $160 billion in private-sector clean energy manufacturing investments poised to create about 167,000 jobs, per data from Atlas Public Policy.
Moreover, since Biden’s administration commenced, an additional $446 billion has been announced for semiconductor and electronics manufacturing, according to the White House. Yet, many of these initiatives are still in the planning phase. Their realization may hinge on whether Trump and his congressional allies alter tax credits, adjust grant programs, or eliminate them entirely, especially as the president-elect advocates for his own substantial tax cuts.
“I think that we'll look back years from now and we'll say that this is when America had the chance to get in the game and lead in one of the biggest and most important economic revolutions in history,” remarked Bob Keefe, executive director of the national clean energy business group E2.
“The question to be answered in the months ahead is, will we do so or will we continue to fall behind and ultimately lose out to other countries?”
Biden himself has acknowledged that his economic initiatives are at a crucial juncture. In a recent op-ed for The American Prospect, he stated that “the next four years will determine whether the incoming administration builds on this strength.”
Though Trump’s transition team has not commented, other Republicans have been critical of Biden's achievements. “President Biden punished the economy without helping the environment. That's what he did. That's his record as president in the United States,” asserted Wyoming Sen. John Barrasso, who is set to become the No. 2 Republican in the Senate next year.
The foundation of Biden’s energy, technology, and infrastructure legacy lies in four major bills passed during the first two years of his term. The first was a fraction of the $1.9 trillion American Rescue Plan, primarily aimed at addressing the Covid-19 pandemic but which also allocated funds for infrastructure improvements. The bipartisan infrastructure law authorized funding for rebuilding roads and bridges, modernizing airports, and replacing lead pipes, while also covering electric vehicle chargers, public transport, broadband expansion, and battery manufacturing. The CHIPS and Science Act provided $54.2 billion in appropriations and around $24 billion in tax incentives for chipmakers establishing U.S. factories and for research initiatives essential for next-gen microchips.
Culminating these efforts was the Inflation Reduction Act, a climate law aimed at injecting an estimated $527 billion into tax credits for green power facilities, vehicles, and factories, along with bonuses for companies sourcing domestically and hiring union workers, according to a 2023 analysis by the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget. This law also allocated $145 billion for climate and energy grant and loan programs.
All four pieces of legislation combined represent at least $1.6 trillion in funding and incentives for Biden’s priorities, exceeding the inflation-adjusted cost of Roosevelt's response to the Great Depression.
These bills illustrated a novel approach to domestic policy, as Biden blended progressive objectives, like combating climate change and rectifying historical social and economic inequalities, with blue-collar priorities such as revamping infrastructure and rejuvenating manufacturing in the U.S.
“We stopped asking the question, ‘What do we need to shut down?’ and we started asking the question, ‘What do we need to build?’” said John Podesta, a senior climate adviser to the president.
“ I think the president fully embraced that theory of the case: What do we need to build? What do we need to invest in? How do we spread the fruits of that to communities that have been left out and left behind?”
Signs of Biden’s initiatives are becoming evident across the nation, with thousands engaged in constructing massive chip factories in Arizona, Ohio, and Texas, poised to become industrial centers. Some facilities are scheduled to begin operations next year, such as a technologically advanced chipmaking plant being built in Phoenix by Taiwanese company TSMC.
Biden has also aimed to address existing disparities by implementing government-wide measures to ensure that historically polluted communities benefit from the transition to cleaner energy sources.
As various projects funded by Biden begin to materialize, such as a $7 billion initiative to install solar panels in low-income neighborhoods, the tangible outcomes of this funding will help solidify his legacy, noted Tony Reames, a University of Michigan professor who played a role in the Energy Department’s environmental justice efforts during Biden’s tenure.
Yet, he acknowledged that many voters have not perceived the advantages of Biden’s initiatives ahead of the election. Addressing long-standing inequalities is not a quick process, Reames admitted, adding, “I was probably a little naive about the time it takes to make transformational change.”
These challenges weighed heavily on Vice President Kamala Harris’ campaign. Reports from voters in swing states like Pennsylvania and Nevada indicated that Biden’s climate and energy policies didn’t rank as high-priority issues, despite significant clean energy initiatives occurring in their areas. Just days prior to Election Day, fewer than three out of ten voters felt that Biden’s major legislative achievements had positively impacted their lives and communities, leading Harris to focus her campaign on issues such as the cost of living, reproductive rights, and the perceived threat posed by Trump to democratic values.
As the Biden administration prepares to exit the White House next month, officials indicated that agencies have allocated 98 percent of the available funds. However, these announcements often merely mark the initial stage of ensuring the funds are ultimately disbursed. For most funding, the next step involves obligating the funds, a phase experts say provides legal and contractual security against potential retraction.
Most importantly, the deployment of these funds plays a critical role in everyday life. According to a PMG analysis of federal spending data, recipients under Biden’s administration have disbursed less than 28 percent of the total appropriations for the significant energy, technology, and infrastructure programs as of this fall.
Concerning private investments under Biden’s initiatives, roughly 45 percent of the estimated $160 billion in clean energy manufacturing investments announced after the Inflation Reduction Act’s passage are still in the planning stage as of early December, according to Atlas data.
Besides the challenges of deploying such vast sums, Biden’s green energy agenda confronts practical barriers, including a strained electric grid that may struggle to accommodate a substantial influx of new energy. The federal permitting process for renewable energy projects is also slow, even with bipartisan calls for its streamlining.
Consequently, the quantity of new low-carbon electricity ventures is lower than many energy modelers initially anticipated at the IRA's passage two years ago. Projections of U.S. greenhouse gas reductions have also fallen short of the administration’s objectives; estimates from the Rhodium Group indicate that the nation’s climate emissions were 18 percent lower than 2005 levels in 2023, which is significantly below Biden’s target of a 50 percent reduction by the decade's end.
For Democrats who dedicated years to enacting laws intended to combat climate change, Biden’s presidency marks a significant leap forward.
“I think that he will be viewed as the most important climate president in history,” stated Sen. Ed Markey, a Massachusetts Democrat who co-authored a climate bill that passed the House 15 years ago but fell short in the Senate despite a Democratic supermajority.
“I think that his three climate pillars of jobs and justice and climate action will forever be the formula that is used in dealing with climate-related issues,” Markey said.
Most Republicans, however, perceive Biden’s legacy as a prime example of Washington’s failings: a government recklessly expending funds on initiatives that they argue threaten the stability of the electric grid, increase reliance on China, and burden consumers with higher energy costs.
Despite this, many projects affiliated with Biden’s agenda are commencing in red districts, with Atlas data indicating that approximately $120 billion, or 75 percent, of announced investments in clean energy manufacturing are headed to these areas.
Rep. Carol Miller, a West Virginia Republican and member of the House Ways and Means Committee, criticized Biden for “upending American energy production” and permitting “China to infiltrate our supply chains.”
“It is essential that President Trump’s energy agenda be implemented immediately to lower costs, increase reliability and improve grid efficiency,” she asserted.
On the semiconductor front, Biden might have a better chance for lasting influence, as Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo has already executed contracts for approximately 85 percent of the manufacturing subsidies designated under the CHIPS Act, promising to formally allocate nearly all of this essential funding in her agency’s budget by Inauguration Day.
John Neuffer, president and CEO of the semiconductor industry’s premier advocate in Washington, expressed optimism that Trump’s determined effort to outcompete China would help sustain these initiatives. “The overarching message is: If we don't have some continuation of incentives in place, we will go back to square one, and that doesn't seem like it's good for America,” Neuffer stated.
Trump, however, has made it clear that he aims to reclaim significant parts of Biden’s agenda. His strategy for stimulating domestic manufacturing leans toward deregulation and stringent trade enforcement, moving away from many of Biden's priorities.
“All of the trillions of dollars that are sitting there not yet spent, we will redirect that money for important projects like roads, bridges, dams and we will not allow it to be spent on meaningless Green New Scam ideas,” Trump declared at his convention acceptance speech in July.
Much of Biden's Investing in America strategy has already been allocated toward projects like roads and bridges, with the Department of Transportation being the largest beneficiary of the funding from the aforementioned laws.
Trump has also promised to rescind the "unspent" funds of the Inflation Reduction Act, criticized the CHIPS Act as a “bad” deal, and persistently condemned Biden's backing of certain technologies like electric vehicles and wind energy.
The incoming president will have various options at his disposal.
Biden’s attempts to leverage climate action through agricultural policy have relied on existing conservation programs that have seen demand outstrip available funds. The IRA boosted these programs by $20 billion, and the Department of Agriculture will likely have the majority of this funding available for the next administration.
Since the beginning, Republicans have lobbied to remove the IRA’s "climate guardrails,” making it possible for this funding to be diverted to other priorities. This dynamic has complicated recent bipartisan negotiations surrounding critical government funding.
A similar scenario might occur with energy initiatives, as lobbyists and industry leaders have expressed a growing consensus that Republicans may maintain IRA tax credits supporting traditional GOP priorities such as nuclear energy, financial aid for fossil fuel companies to capture carbon emissions, or manufacturing projects in conservative districts.
“No doubt the Trump administration will do some things differently, but you’re going to see some momentum drive forward,” said Jeremy Harrell, CEO of ClearPath, a conservative clean energy organization. “And the durability of this push to meet rising electricity demand and grow American manufacturing competitiveness is something that both parties have some strong agreement on.”
However, the uncertainty surrounding these matters places businesses in a difficult position regarding planned investments and the related jobs.
“If the implementation of that legislation is not successful, its impact is obviously incredibly, incredibly stunted,” warned Ben Catt, CEO of Pine Gate Renewables. His company has recently secured permits for a massive solar and storage installation in Oregon and had intended to use domestically produced components.
“I need to know that I can actually procure domestic content and that we're not going to gut a provision inside of the IRA that is currently incentivizing that domestic content,” he cautioned.
Earlier this year, 18 Republicans from districts experiencing IRA-driven investments urged party leadership to avoid a complete repeal of the law, a remarkable alliance given the narrow margins House Republicans will maintain next year. House Speaker Mike Johnson has suggested that the party will opt for a “scalpel” approach rather than a sledgehammer.
Rep. Brett Guthrie of Kentucky, set to chair the House Energy and Commerce Committee, stated in an interview that Republicans would need to evaluate how businesses are utilizing IRA tax incentives before making any alterations. “Some businesses have invested money based on those programs being in place,” he noted.
In recent weeks, Republicans have outlined their priorities, with Barrasso calling for the elimination of the consumer tax credit, which offers up to $7,500 off electric vehicle purchases, describing it as a “Biden car bribe” and “one of the most wasteful policies that we’ve seen from this administration in the last four years.”
Trump’s transition team is also advocating for the removal of the electric vehicle tax credit and to redirect Biden’s EV charger funding, as reported by Reuters. This aligns with Trump's attacks on EVs throughout his campaign and Tesla CEO and Trump advisor Elon Musk’s calls for the removal of subsidies industry-wide. Nevertheless, executing such changes may prove challenging, as much of the charger funding has already been allocated to state governments.
Republicans have likewise criticized the infrastructure law’s $42 billion initiative to make broadband service available to all Americans by 2030. No households have been connected under this program due to initial bureaucratic setbacks and subsequent negotiations over affordability standards between the Commerce Department and states.
“That program has achieved nothing. Deleted,” Musk wrote on his platform X in mid-November, shortly after Trump appointed him to lead a government efficiency commission. Sen. Joni Ernst, who supports Musk’s initiatives, argued that Trump should “pull the plug.” More than half of the program’s funding, approximately $24.7 billion, had been obligated as of early December, per federal spending records.
The administration counters that it has connected millions of households to the internet through other funding sources, including pandemic relief packages, and highlights the $42 billion program's ancillary benefits, such as boosting domestic telecom manufacturing.
The Energy Department's loan office, once criticized for the Obama administration’s failed $535 million loan guarantee to Solyndra, has since transformed under Biden to support emergent clean energy technologies critical for advancing his agenda. The office has announced $74 billion in financing for significant clean energy and advanced technology initiatives, including nine conditional awards totaling over $35 billion since the presidential election.
In recent weeks, the pace of the office has quickened as businesses strive to secure financing ahead of Trump’s administration. However, some opponents of the office’s Biden-era policies are advocating for a freeze on spending until Trump takes office. Vivek Ramaswamy, who will co-chair the incoming administration’s efficiency panel with Musk, has stated that items such as the Energy Department’s recent $6.6 billion conditional loan to Rivian are “high on the list of items” he seeks to reverse.
Many within the clean energy sector still anticipate growth in low-carbon technologies under Trump, spurred on by declining costs, climate policies in blue states, and surge in energy demand. However, some industry figures are opting to await clarity from Washington before progressing with significant projects.
Joe Mastrangelo, CEO of Eos Energy Enterprises, a battery manufacturer in the Pittsburgh area, expressed confidence that Republicans would preserve tax credits for domestic energy manufacturing, motivated by the increasing energy requirements from data centers and artificial intelligence, as well as competing with countries like China. Mastrangelo also noted that Trump may enhance the energy sector by easing permitting bottlenecks that hinder new project deployment.
Eos, which employs nearly 400 individuals, secured a $303.5 million loan guarantee through the Energy Department last year, making it a beneficiary of the IRA tax incentives.
Mastrangelo cautioned against the U.S. repeating the mistakes of past dominant corporations that failed to adapt to emerging trends.
“Why didn't Kodak do a digital camera? Because they've had a film business,” he remarked, citing a historical corporate miscalculation. “We’ve got to be careful as a country that we don't let that mindset creep in because the world's going to change. We should lead it versus be left out of it.”
Some industry insiders, however, have already perceived a decrease in clean energy market activity.
Climate startups typically design technologies with the expectation of meeting new pollution regulations, and their business models often anticipate acquisition by larger firms within five years, explained Kevin Dutt, interim CEO of Greentown Labs, a notable climate incubator in Cambridge, Massachusetts.
However, potential future buyers may find such businesses less appealing if a new administration pledges to roll back pollution regulations, as Trump has indicated. “We’re going to see a very big swing the other way,” Dutt said. “Investors on the climate tech side are slower and more cautious to invest.”
In some instances, companies are hastening to finalize contracts with the Biden administration to circumvent possible challenges after Trump assumes office. Fourteen chip manufacturers are still engaged in discussions with the Commerce Department, and some are bracing for the possibility that negotiations may extend beyond Inauguration Day.
“We are on an aggressive timeline to secure an award as soon as possible in order to start our project,” stated Thomas Sonderman, CEO of SkyWater Technology, a chipmaker negotiating a $16 million grant.
Yet, despite the sharply divergent political narratives in Washington, Trump and Biden may end up sharing a legacy, as noted by Arjun Murti, a former Goldman Sachs partner and energy analyst.
The era of unabashed support for free trade that prevailed under both Republican and Democratic administrations has given way to an America First economic approach, prioritizing domestic manufacturing and jobs.
He predicted that efforts to reduce carbon emissions would persist under Trump, driven more by competition with China to develop low-carbon technologies than from adherence to the Paris climate agreement.
“We can certainly debate the efficacy of specific provisions within the IRA and what’s going to last and what’s not going to last,” Murti said. “But the bigger idea [that] we need to reshore domestic manufacturing, that's a Trump idea. It was a Biden idea. It's absolutely bipartisan, and I think that's going to be his biggest legacy.”
Josh Siegel, John Hendel, Christine Mui, Marcia Brown, Jean Chemnick, Daniel Cusick, Hannah Northey, Brian Dabbs, Mike Lee, Scott Waldman, Anne Mulkern, Scott Waldman and Alexander Nieves contributed to this report.
Ramin Sohrabi contributed to this report for TROIB News
