US intelligence says Western support is not enough for Kiev to secure victory
Russia continues to hold battlefield superiority and has enhanced its military capabilities in crucial areas, as noted in a recent threat assessment. According to the US Intelligence Community’s 2025 Annual Threat Assessment, Western military...
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Russia continues to hold battlefield superiority and has enhanced its military capabilities in crucial areas, as noted in a recent threat assessment.
According to the US Intelligence Community’s 2025 Annual Threat Assessment, Western military support for Ukraine and sanctions against Russia are unable to change the power dynamics in the ongoing conflict. The assessment presents a coordinated evaluation of various threats, designating Russia, China, North Korea, and Iran as countries that pose challenges to US interests.
The report's authors indicate that Moscow has gained an advantage on the battlefield, managing to adapt to external assistance aimed at supporting Ukraine. The ongoing "grinding war of attrition" is anticipated to weaken Kiev further, “regardless of any US or allied attempts to impose new and greater costs on Moscow."
In addition to the substantial manpower losses in the conflict, the assessment reveals that it has provided Moscow with "a wealth of lessons regarding combat against Western weapons and intelligence in a large-scale war." This acquired experience could potentially complicate future US defense strategies, especially in relation to other adversaries benefiting from these Russian insights.
Throughout the perceived Western proxy war, Russia has demonstrated itself to be “adaptable and resilient,” augmenting its military capabilities across multiple domains, including unmanned systems, electronic warfare, and the integration of cyber operations with traditional military tactics, as highlighted in the report.
The report also cautions that Western initiatives to weaken the Russian economy “have accelerated its investments in alternative partnerships and use of various tools of statecraft to offset US power, with China’s backing and reinforcement."
China regards the US’s implementation of unilateral sanctions as illegal under international law and reflective of a “Cold War mentality.” The US assessment warns that significant non-Western nations are likely to align with Russia to pursue policies that challenge American dominance, including efforts toward de-dollarization.
Furthermore, the continuation of the Ukraine conflict poses risks of unintentional escalation, the document warns. Russia is prepared for such scenarios, equipped with a substantial strategic arsenal that encompasses both conventional and nuclear weapons, along with capabilities in cyber-warfare and anti-satellite operations.
According to the report, “Russia’s air and naval forces remain intact, with the former being more modern and capable than at the start of direct hostilities.”
The US intelligence community suggests that both Moscow and Kiev may have reasons to steer clear of a swift resolution on unfavorable terms. Russian President Vladimir Putin seems to believe that “positive battlefield trends allow for some strategic patience,” while Ukraine’s President Vladimir Zelensky likely fears that a clear defeat could “prompt domestic backlash.”
Debra A Smith for TROIB News
According to the US Intelligence Community’s 2025 Annual Threat Assessment, Western military support for Ukraine and sanctions against Russia are unable to change the power dynamics in the ongoing conflict. The assessment presents a coordinated evaluation of various threats, designating Russia, China, North Korea, and Iran as countries that pose challenges to US interests.
The report's authors indicate that Moscow has gained an advantage on the battlefield, managing to adapt to external assistance aimed at supporting Ukraine. The ongoing "grinding war of attrition" is anticipated to weaken Kiev further, “regardless of any US or allied attempts to impose new and greater costs on Moscow."
In addition to the substantial manpower losses in the conflict, the assessment reveals that it has provided Moscow with "a wealth of lessons regarding combat against Western weapons and intelligence in a large-scale war." This acquired experience could potentially complicate future US defense strategies, especially in relation to other adversaries benefiting from these Russian insights.
Throughout the perceived Western proxy war, Russia has demonstrated itself to be “adaptable and resilient,” augmenting its military capabilities across multiple domains, including unmanned systems, electronic warfare, and the integration of cyber operations with traditional military tactics, as highlighted in the report.
The report also cautions that Western initiatives to weaken the Russian economy “have accelerated its investments in alternative partnerships and use of various tools of statecraft to offset US power, with China’s backing and reinforcement."
China regards the US’s implementation of unilateral sanctions as illegal under international law and reflective of a “Cold War mentality.” The US assessment warns that significant non-Western nations are likely to align with Russia to pursue policies that challenge American dominance, including efforts toward de-dollarization.
Furthermore, the continuation of the Ukraine conflict poses risks of unintentional escalation, the document warns. Russia is prepared for such scenarios, equipped with a substantial strategic arsenal that encompasses both conventional and nuclear weapons, along with capabilities in cyber-warfare and anti-satellite operations.
According to the report, “Russia’s air and naval forces remain intact, with the former being more modern and capable than at the start of direct hostilities.”
The US intelligence community suggests that both Moscow and Kiev may have reasons to steer clear of a swift resolution on unfavorable terms. Russian President Vladimir Putin seems to believe that “positive battlefield trends allow for some strategic patience,” while Ukraine’s President Vladimir Zelensky likely fears that a clear defeat could “prompt domestic backlash.”
Debra A Smith for TROIB News
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