Trump's Collateral Damage in Canada
The idea of having a conservative leader in Canada excited many on the American right. That was, until Donald Trump disrupted his chances.
TroibNews 
Just a few months ago, the Conservative Party in Canada seemed poised for a significant electoral victory. Its leader, Pierre Poilievre, was gaining momentum and receiving enthusiastic praise from many within the American conservative movement, spanning both traditional foreign policy circles and the more Trump-aligned "new right."
However, the electoral prospects for Poilievre and his party have quickly deteriorated since Donald Trump's presidency began. Trump's imposition of tariffs on Canada, combined with his aggressive rhetoric and claims that Canada could become the United States' 51st state, have damaged Poilievre's standing. The fallout from Poilievre's earlier support for Trump has further complicated his position. As the Liberal Party harnesses a newfound surge in Canadian nationalism against the Conservatives, Poilievre's once-commanding 25-point lead in polls last December has dwindled, with projections now indicating that the Liberals are set to secure an outright majority in parliament.
This past weekend, newly appointed Liberal Prime Minister Mark Carney, who succeeded Justin Trudeau earlier this month, officially announced that the election would be held on April 28.
Some conservatives in the United States, who once looked forward to having a like-minded ally in Canadian politics, are now disappointed with the changing dynamics, which they attribute in part to Trump’s influence.
“It is hard to defend what the president has done on Canada. A lot of his other domestic and foreign policy initiatives, you can make the case, but this is pretty hard to make the case,” remarked Colin Dueck, a nonresident senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute and a professor at George Mason University. He continued, “That’s frustrating. And obviously, it’s backfired in the sense that he has unintentionally been the single biggest factor in the comeback of this left of center party in Canada.”
Although Poilievre has occasionally been likened to Trump, his ideological stance aligns more closely with established conservative principles that Trump has often left behind. Consequently, the perceived downfall of the Conservative Party is not a major concern for many on the Trump-dominated American right.
Curt Mills, executive director of The American Conservative and an influential figure in the emerging “new right,” compared Poilievre to Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, describing them both as “fix it, brusque, technocratic young figures who seem to have gotten extremely unlucky.” Mills added that in his circles, there is little worry about the Canadian conservative's current struggles. “I don’t think anybody cares,” he said. “I think the kind of people who are very enthusiastic about Trump in the U.S., generally speaking, are not that correlated with those who are that enthusiastic about Poilievre. There’s a sense that Poilievre is from an older type of North American conservative mold.”
Even if Poilievre doesn't resonate with the new right, American conservatives hold a common disdain for Justin Trudeau and his Liberal Party. Trump himself took pleasure in provoking Trudeau early in his second term, mockingly referring to the former prime minister as “governor,” a jab at his aspirations to bring Canada into the U.S. fold. While Trudeau’s successor gains traction, driven by Trump’s provocations, the U.S. president claims indifference.
“I think it’s easier to deal, actually, with a liberal, and maybe they’re going to win, but I don’t really care,” Trump stated during an interview with Laura Ingraham on Fox News last week.
Should Trump recognize that he’s become a liability for Poilievre and genuinely care about the election outcome, it would benefit him to acknowledge a preference for negotiating with a Liberal prime minister. This could be interpreted as the “4D chess” theory of Trump’s remarks. However, Mills and Dueck generally concur that the more plausible interpretation is that Trump is being candid—having spent over a decade criticizing Trudeau, he has largely given up on opposing the Liberal Party.
They also agree that Poilievre's dwindling support poses challenges for a connected international conservative movement.
“This shows the limits of what has sometimes been called the nationalist internationale. If the goal of the government is to pursue U.S. interests as it sees fit, then even if there’s sympathies with approaches in other countries, if it’s the U.S. vs. Canada, it’s going to be the U.S.,” Mills explained.
Dueck took a more stringent view. “If you say you value nationalism among free peoples, then you've got to have some respect for other countries’ nationalism too,” he argued. “If you tell the Canadians, ‘we're going to take you over,’ that’s about as direct an insult as you can imagine to Canadian sovereignty.”
Despite the challenges ahead, Poilievre's political prospects may shift once again. His fortunes could improve just as quickly as they have declined, but doing so will require navigating the complexities posed by a U.S. president eager to intensify tensions with Canada, regardless of the impact on the international conservative agenda or the American right’s perspective on the situation.
Allen M Lee for TROIB News
However, the electoral prospects for Poilievre and his party have quickly deteriorated since Donald Trump's presidency began. Trump's imposition of tariffs on Canada, combined with his aggressive rhetoric and claims that Canada could become the United States' 51st state, have damaged Poilievre's standing. The fallout from Poilievre's earlier support for Trump has further complicated his position. As the Liberal Party harnesses a newfound surge in Canadian nationalism against the Conservatives, Poilievre's once-commanding 25-point lead in polls last December has dwindled, with projections now indicating that the Liberals are set to secure an outright majority in parliament.
This past weekend, newly appointed Liberal Prime Minister Mark Carney, who succeeded Justin Trudeau earlier this month, officially announced that the election would be held on April 28.
Some conservatives in the United States, who once looked forward to having a like-minded ally in Canadian politics, are now disappointed with the changing dynamics, which they attribute in part to Trump’s influence.
“It is hard to defend what the president has done on Canada. A lot of his other domestic and foreign policy initiatives, you can make the case, but this is pretty hard to make the case,” remarked Colin Dueck, a nonresident senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute and a professor at George Mason University. He continued, “That’s frustrating. And obviously, it’s backfired in the sense that he has unintentionally been the single biggest factor in the comeback of this left of center party in Canada.”
Although Poilievre has occasionally been likened to Trump, his ideological stance aligns more closely with established conservative principles that Trump has often left behind. Consequently, the perceived downfall of the Conservative Party is not a major concern for many on the Trump-dominated American right.
Curt Mills, executive director of The American Conservative and an influential figure in the emerging “new right,” compared Poilievre to Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, describing them both as “fix it, brusque, technocratic young figures who seem to have gotten extremely unlucky.” Mills added that in his circles, there is little worry about the Canadian conservative's current struggles. “I don’t think anybody cares,” he said. “I think the kind of people who are very enthusiastic about Trump in the U.S., generally speaking, are not that correlated with those who are that enthusiastic about Poilievre. There’s a sense that Poilievre is from an older type of North American conservative mold.”
Even if Poilievre doesn't resonate with the new right, American conservatives hold a common disdain for Justin Trudeau and his Liberal Party. Trump himself took pleasure in provoking Trudeau early in his second term, mockingly referring to the former prime minister as “governor,” a jab at his aspirations to bring Canada into the U.S. fold. While Trudeau’s successor gains traction, driven by Trump’s provocations, the U.S. president claims indifference.
“I think it’s easier to deal, actually, with a liberal, and maybe they’re going to win, but I don’t really care,” Trump stated during an interview with Laura Ingraham on Fox News last week.
Should Trump recognize that he’s become a liability for Poilievre and genuinely care about the election outcome, it would benefit him to acknowledge a preference for negotiating with a Liberal prime minister. This could be interpreted as the “4D chess” theory of Trump’s remarks. However, Mills and Dueck generally concur that the more plausible interpretation is that Trump is being candid—having spent over a decade criticizing Trudeau, he has largely given up on opposing the Liberal Party.
They also agree that Poilievre's dwindling support poses challenges for a connected international conservative movement.
“This shows the limits of what has sometimes been called the nationalist internationale. If the goal of the government is to pursue U.S. interests as it sees fit, then even if there’s sympathies with approaches in other countries, if it’s the U.S. vs. Canada, it’s going to be the U.S.,” Mills explained.
Dueck took a more stringent view. “If you say you value nationalism among free peoples, then you've got to have some respect for other countries’ nationalism too,” he argued. “If you tell the Canadians, ‘we're going to take you over,’ that’s about as direct an insult as you can imagine to Canadian sovereignty.”
Despite the challenges ahead, Poilievre's political prospects may shift once again. His fortunes could improve just as quickly as they have declined, but doing so will require navigating the complexities posed by a U.S. president eager to intensify tensions with Canada, regardless of the impact on the international conservative agenda or the American right’s perspective on the situation.
Allen M Lee for TROIB News
