Shifts and Swerves: Trump's Trade Policy Poses Risks to Economic Stability
Trump's trade policies have experienced significant and unpredictable changes in recent months, leading to considerable uncertainty both at home and abroad. Recent developments have raised alarms, particularly in North America.
TroibNews 
U.S. President Donald Trump announced on Thursday the suspension of the 25 percent tariffs he recently imposed on most goods from Canada and Mexico. This suspension, however, is set to expire on April 2, raising concerns about the future trajectory of U.S. trade policy and its potential economic impacts.
The tariffs were initially enacted in early February but were delayed shortly before taking effect on March 4. Following a meeting with executives from major U.S. automakers, including Ford, General Motors, and Stellantis, Trump issued the exemptions on March 5.
In recent months, Trump's trade policies have displayed significant fluctuations, contributing to uncertainty both within the U.S. and internationally. The latest developments have heightened concerns particularly in North America.
Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau stated that the trade conflict will persist, emphasizing that the tensions stem from U.S. actions. He remarked, "I can confirm that we will continue to be in a trade war that was launched by the United States for the foreseeable future."
Wang Yiwei, director of the Institute of International Affairs at Renmin University of China, interprets these tariff changes as a sign of weakness. "Trump's back-and-forth tariff policies are more of a display of bluster than a firm strategy," he commented.
Wang highlighted that Trump has significant options for retreat should other countries retaliate, citing the strong economic ties between the U.S. and Canada. Following the imposition of tariffs on Canada, Trudeau responded swiftly by announcing a 25 percent tariff on C$155 billion worth of U.S. goods.
He also warned that "once other countries retaliate against U.S. tariffs, it would ultimately hurt American consumers and industries."
Backlash against U.S. tariffs is growing globally. In Canada and Europe, public sentiment is shifting towards boycotting American products. In provinces such as Ontario, Quebec, and Manitoba, there have already been removals of U.S. alcoholic beverages from store shelves, and many Canadians are canceling vacations to the U.S.
Trudeau encouraged consumers to "choose products made right here in Canada," urging people to check labels and support local options.
Some protests have erupted at sporting events, where fans have booed the U.S. national anthem.
In Europe, particularly in Sweden, Norway, and France, movements advocating a boycott of American products are gaining traction. Various online groups are urging consumers to replace everyday goods like Coca-Cola, McDonald's, and Starbucks with local alternatives. Additionally, the Norwegian company Haltbakk Bunkers has declared that it will no longer supply fuel to U.S. military vessels.
American firms abroad are also facing backlash, with platforms like Amazon and Netflix encountering rising opposition as consumers choose to cancel subscriptions. According to the European Automobile Manufacturers Association, Tesla's sales in Europe plummeted by more than 50 percent in January.
Experts are increasingly critical of Trump's approach to global trade dynamics. Wang stated that Trump's perspective is rooted in a flawed understanding of globalization, asserting, "The U.S. sees itself as being exploited by other countries. Trump even believes that the EU was 'formed to screw the United States.' This is ridiculous."
He cautioned that tariffs likely won't resolve the underlying structural issues within the U.S. economy.
Other analysts suggest that Trump's tariffs may be part of a larger political strategy aimed at appeasing his base in manufacturing-heavy states, yet they doubt that these measures will produce the desired outcomes.
Lv Xiang, an expert at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, emphasized the deep integration of the North American industrial chain, particularly in automotive manufacturing.
"Trump's goal of revitalizing the U.S. auto industry to its past glory is unlikely to be achieved," Lv said, discussing the labor cost disparities and labor shortages in the U.S. He warned that continued tariffs could lead to a spike in inflation, possibly rising from 3 percent to as high as 5 percent, without any effective countermeasures against these price hikes.
He further cautioned that ongoing tariffs could not only severely impact the automotive sector but also threaten the entire framework of North American economic integration.
Lin Xueping, a visiting researcher at Shanghai Jiao Tong University, supported Lv's assessment, stating that it is unrealistic to expect the automotive supply chain to relocate from Mexico and Canada back to the U.S.
She noted the significant wage gap: U.S. workers earn $35 an hour for car assembly, whereas their Mexican counterparts make only $4 an hour. This disparity, coupled with the need for a specialized supply chain, makes it nearly impossible for the U.S. to reinstate its automotive industry domestically.
"In the future, U.S. manufacturing will operate in a high-cost, high-price, high-margin environment. Only industries that meet these conditions are likely to remain in the U.S.," Lin observed. She added that if the government attempts to force manufacturing to stay, it would require sustained support; without it, the industry could ultimately collapse.
Mathilde Moreau contributed to this report for TROIB News
The tariffs were initially enacted in early February but were delayed shortly before taking effect on March 4. Following a meeting with executives from major U.S. automakers, including Ford, General Motors, and Stellantis, Trump issued the exemptions on March 5.
In recent months, Trump's trade policies have displayed significant fluctuations, contributing to uncertainty both within the U.S. and internationally. The latest developments have heightened concerns particularly in North America.
Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau stated that the trade conflict will persist, emphasizing that the tensions stem from U.S. actions. He remarked, "I can confirm that we will continue to be in a trade war that was launched by the United States for the foreseeable future."
Wang Yiwei, director of the Institute of International Affairs at Renmin University of China, interprets these tariff changes as a sign of weakness. "Trump's back-and-forth tariff policies are more of a display of bluster than a firm strategy," he commented.
Wang highlighted that Trump has significant options for retreat should other countries retaliate, citing the strong economic ties between the U.S. and Canada. Following the imposition of tariffs on Canada, Trudeau responded swiftly by announcing a 25 percent tariff on C$155 billion worth of U.S. goods.
He also warned that "once other countries retaliate against U.S. tariffs, it would ultimately hurt American consumers and industries."
Backlash against U.S. tariffs is growing globally. In Canada and Europe, public sentiment is shifting towards boycotting American products. In provinces such as Ontario, Quebec, and Manitoba, there have already been removals of U.S. alcoholic beverages from store shelves, and many Canadians are canceling vacations to the U.S.
Trudeau encouraged consumers to "choose products made right here in Canada," urging people to check labels and support local options.
Some protests have erupted at sporting events, where fans have booed the U.S. national anthem.
In Europe, particularly in Sweden, Norway, and France, movements advocating a boycott of American products are gaining traction. Various online groups are urging consumers to replace everyday goods like Coca-Cola, McDonald's, and Starbucks with local alternatives. Additionally, the Norwegian company Haltbakk Bunkers has declared that it will no longer supply fuel to U.S. military vessels.
American firms abroad are also facing backlash, with platforms like Amazon and Netflix encountering rising opposition as consumers choose to cancel subscriptions. According to the European Automobile Manufacturers Association, Tesla's sales in Europe plummeted by more than 50 percent in January.
Experts are increasingly critical of Trump's approach to global trade dynamics. Wang stated that Trump's perspective is rooted in a flawed understanding of globalization, asserting, "The U.S. sees itself as being exploited by other countries. Trump even believes that the EU was 'formed to screw the United States.' This is ridiculous."
He cautioned that tariffs likely won't resolve the underlying structural issues within the U.S. economy.
Other analysts suggest that Trump's tariffs may be part of a larger political strategy aimed at appeasing his base in manufacturing-heavy states, yet they doubt that these measures will produce the desired outcomes.
Lv Xiang, an expert at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, emphasized the deep integration of the North American industrial chain, particularly in automotive manufacturing.
"Trump's goal of revitalizing the U.S. auto industry to its past glory is unlikely to be achieved," Lv said, discussing the labor cost disparities and labor shortages in the U.S. He warned that continued tariffs could lead to a spike in inflation, possibly rising from 3 percent to as high as 5 percent, without any effective countermeasures against these price hikes.
He further cautioned that ongoing tariffs could not only severely impact the automotive sector but also threaten the entire framework of North American economic integration.
Lin Xueping, a visiting researcher at Shanghai Jiao Tong University, supported Lv's assessment, stating that it is unrealistic to expect the automotive supply chain to relocate from Mexico and Canada back to the U.S.
She noted the significant wage gap: U.S. workers earn $35 an hour for car assembly, whereas their Mexican counterparts make only $4 an hour. This disparity, coupled with the need for a specialized supply chain, makes it nearly impossible for the U.S. to reinstate its automotive industry domestically.
"In the future, U.S. manufacturing will operate in a high-cost, high-price, high-margin environment. Only industries that meet these conditions are likely to remain in the U.S.," Lin observed. She added that if the government attempts to force manufacturing to stay, it would require sustained support; without it, the industry could ultimately collapse.
Mathilde Moreau contributed to this report for TROIB News
