Several indicators signal growing risk of US recession
A combination of concerning economic signals—sharp declines in consumer confidence, declining corporate sentiment, and worsening fiscal conditions—has intensified worries that the US economy may be heading for a recession.
TroibNews 
A combination of concerning economic indicators—declining consumer confidence, worsening corporate sentiment, and deteriorating fiscal health—has intensified worries that the US economy may be heading toward a recession.
US consumer gloom hits 12-year low
The US Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index saw a significant drop for the fourth consecutive month in March, falling to 92.9, marking its lowest point since 2021. Even more concerning, the Expectations Index, which assesses short-term outlooks for income and employment, tumbled to 65.2, well below the 80 mark that often indicates an impending economic downturn.
"Consumers' expectations were especially gloomy, with pessimism about future business conditions deepening and confidence about future employment prospects falling to a 12-year low," stated Stephanie Guichard, Senior Economist, Global Indicators at The Conference Board.
While inflation remains a primary worry, respondents also expressed increasing anxiety regarding trade policies. Plans for significant purchases, such as homes and cars, have weakened, indicating that households are preparing for more challenging times ahead.
CFOs brace for 2025 recession
This cloud of pessimism is not confined to consumers. A CNBC CFO Council survey shows that 60 percent of chief financial officers anticipate a recession in the latter half of 2025, while another 15 percent expect one by 2026.
The main factor? Trade policy tumult. About 30 percent of CFOs identify US trade actions as their top external risk, surpassing concerns over inflation and weakened consumer demand. Many characterized the Trump administration's approach as "too chaotic," "disruptive," and "extreme," which has made long-term planning nearly impossible.
The CNBC report highlighted that the optimistic sentiments following the election have diminished into pessimism, with 95 percent of CFOs citing policy chaos as a barrier to business planning.
Moody's sounds debt alarm
Moody's issued a stark warning on Tuesday, indicating that the fiscal health of the US continues to decline as soaring budget deficits and increasing debt servicing costs pose threats to long-term stability. The credit agency observed that this negative trend has accelerated since its November 2023 decision to downgrade the US credit outlook to negative—while still maintaining the AAA rating, it highlighted growing risks.
When considered collectively, these warning signs present a grim economic scenario wherein consumers are retrenching as confidence fades, businesses are immobilized by policy uncertainty, and investors encounter rising risks stemming from debt and deficits. To exacerbate these obstacles, markets now worry that the US government's protectionist measures may simultaneously reignite inflation and hasten an economic downturn.
Alejandro Jose Martinez for TROIB News
US consumer gloom hits 12-year low
The US Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index saw a significant drop for the fourth consecutive month in March, falling to 92.9, marking its lowest point since 2021. Even more concerning, the Expectations Index, which assesses short-term outlooks for income and employment, tumbled to 65.2, well below the 80 mark that often indicates an impending economic downturn.
"Consumers' expectations were especially gloomy, with pessimism about future business conditions deepening and confidence about future employment prospects falling to a 12-year low," stated Stephanie Guichard, Senior Economist, Global Indicators at The Conference Board.
While inflation remains a primary worry, respondents also expressed increasing anxiety regarding trade policies. Plans for significant purchases, such as homes and cars, have weakened, indicating that households are preparing for more challenging times ahead.
CFOs brace for 2025 recession
This cloud of pessimism is not confined to consumers. A CNBC CFO Council survey shows that 60 percent of chief financial officers anticipate a recession in the latter half of 2025, while another 15 percent expect one by 2026.
The main factor? Trade policy tumult. About 30 percent of CFOs identify US trade actions as their top external risk, surpassing concerns over inflation and weakened consumer demand. Many characterized the Trump administration's approach as "too chaotic," "disruptive," and "extreme," which has made long-term planning nearly impossible.
The CNBC report highlighted that the optimistic sentiments following the election have diminished into pessimism, with 95 percent of CFOs citing policy chaos as a barrier to business planning.
Moody's sounds debt alarm
Moody's issued a stark warning on Tuesday, indicating that the fiscal health of the US continues to decline as soaring budget deficits and increasing debt servicing costs pose threats to long-term stability. The credit agency observed that this negative trend has accelerated since its November 2023 decision to downgrade the US credit outlook to negative—while still maintaining the AAA rating, it highlighted growing risks.
When considered collectively, these warning signs present a grim economic scenario wherein consumers are retrenching as confidence fades, businesses are immobilized by policy uncertainty, and investors encounter rising risks stemming from debt and deficits. To exacerbate these obstacles, markets now worry that the US government's protectionist measures may simultaneously reignite inflation and hasten an economic downturn.
Alejandro Jose Martinez for TROIB News
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