Pollster Says Trump Pulling Ahead of Harris in US – "US pollster"
Nate Silver has stated that Donald Trump has a 58% chance of winning the presidential election. Read Full Article at RT.com.
TroibNews 
The chances of Republican candidate Donald Trump winning the presidential election against Vice President Kamala Harris have been assessed by influential election analyst Nate Silver, who indicates they are at their highest since Harris declared her candidacy in July.
Although recent polling has consistently shown Harris with a slight advantage over Trump, Silver stated on Wednesday that the Democrat has not performed as well in recent surveys. He now assigns Trump a 58.2% likelihood of securing victory in the election, while Harris sits at 41.6%. Just a week prior, Silver's model had given Trump a 52.4% chance and placed Harris at 47.3%.
Silver's forecasts are often referenced by American media and are regarded as significant among election predictions in the United States. His approach incorporates polling data, economic indicators, anticipated voter turnout, and various elements, including the post-convention "bounce" that typically benefits candidates for several weeks following their official nomination.
Harris was confirmed as the Democratic nominee during the Democratic National Convention in Chicago three weeks ago. However, Silver pointed out that she did not experience the typical "bounce" most candidates receive. According to CNN polls conducted after the convention, Harris and Trump were tied in three out of six battleground states, with Harris holding about a five-point advantage in an additional three states. Meanwhile, a YouGov survey indicated a two-point lead for Harris nationwide.
Silver argued that since these polls were conducted shortly after the convention, Harris should have established a more substantial lead.
Contrastingly, other pollsters provide differing forecasts. FiveThirtyEight, an analytics organization founded by Silver, suggests that if the election were held today, Harris would have a 55% chance of winning, with Trump's odds at 44%. Although both Silver and FiveThirtyEight apply similar methodologies, FiveThirtyEight tends to prioritize polling data as election day approaches.
It’s worth noting that individual polls can sometimes be misleading. For instance, a New York Times poll from last month showed Harris ahead of Trump by 50% to 46% in crucial swing states like Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Michigan. However, this poll oversampled Democrats, and after adjustments, it depicted Harris and Trump in a statistical dead heat in all three states.
For either candidate, securing either Pennsylvania's 19 electoral votes or the combined 25 votes from Michigan and Wisconsin will be vital to claiming victory in the election.
Silver’s analysis indicates that Trump is poised to win in Arizona, Georgia, Pennsylvania, Nevada, and North Carolina, while the two candidates stand tied in Michigan and with Harris holding a slight edge in Wisconsin.
“Needless to say, stranger things have happened than a candidate who was behind in the polls winning,” Silver cautioned. “And in America’s polarized political climate, most elections are close and a candidate is rarely out of the running.”
Sophie Wagner contributed to this report for TROIB News
Although recent polling has consistently shown Harris with a slight advantage over Trump, Silver stated on Wednesday that the Democrat has not performed as well in recent surveys. He now assigns Trump a 58.2% likelihood of securing victory in the election, while Harris sits at 41.6%. Just a week prior, Silver's model had given Trump a 52.4% chance and placed Harris at 47.3%.
Silver's forecasts are often referenced by American media and are regarded as significant among election predictions in the United States. His approach incorporates polling data, economic indicators, anticipated voter turnout, and various elements, including the post-convention "bounce" that typically benefits candidates for several weeks following their official nomination.
Harris was confirmed as the Democratic nominee during the Democratic National Convention in Chicago three weeks ago. However, Silver pointed out that she did not experience the typical "bounce" most candidates receive. According to CNN polls conducted after the convention, Harris and Trump were tied in three out of six battleground states, with Harris holding about a five-point advantage in an additional three states. Meanwhile, a YouGov survey indicated a two-point lead for Harris nationwide.
Silver argued that since these polls were conducted shortly after the convention, Harris should have established a more substantial lead.
Contrastingly, other pollsters provide differing forecasts. FiveThirtyEight, an analytics organization founded by Silver, suggests that if the election were held today, Harris would have a 55% chance of winning, with Trump's odds at 44%. Although both Silver and FiveThirtyEight apply similar methodologies, FiveThirtyEight tends to prioritize polling data as election day approaches.
It’s worth noting that individual polls can sometimes be misleading. For instance, a New York Times poll from last month showed Harris ahead of Trump by 50% to 46% in crucial swing states like Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Michigan. However, this poll oversampled Democrats, and after adjustments, it depicted Harris and Trump in a statistical dead heat in all three states.
For either candidate, securing either Pennsylvania's 19 electoral votes or the combined 25 votes from Michigan and Wisconsin will be vital to claiming victory in the election.
Silver’s analysis indicates that Trump is poised to win in Arizona, Georgia, Pennsylvania, Nevada, and North Carolina, while the two candidates stand tied in Michigan and with Harris holding a slight edge in Wisconsin.
“Needless to say, stranger things have happened than a candidate who was behind in the polls winning,” Silver cautioned. “And in America’s polarized political climate, most elections are close and a candidate is rarely out of the running.”
Sophie Wagner contributed to this report for TROIB News
