Opinion | Trump Got a Midterm Shellacking. It Doesn’t Mean Much for 2024.

The press, which started filing Donald Trump’s political obituary in 2015 when he announced for the presidency, reiterated his demise just before he beat Hillary Clinton in 2016, and restated it again in 2021 after he ordered his followers to march on the Capitol and “fight like hell,” has used the occasion of Tuesday’s midterm election to reink its pen and write it once again.

“Trump’s favorite candidates disappoint on Election Day, raising questions about his 2024 pitch,” read the CNBC headline. “Trump Hoped for a Celebration but Did Not Have Much to Cheer,” agreed the New York Times. “Trump’s biggest midterm bets don’t pay,” headlined POLITICO. “Why the 2022 election was such a disaster for Trump,” the Washington Post had it. “Trump Lost the Midterms. DeSantis Won,” anti-Trumpist David Frum gloated at the Atlantic. “Trump’s role in disappointing midterm elections could leave GOP in a box,” seconded the Los Angeles Times. “Trump gears up to run after midterms. Many Republicans appear unexcited,” reported Reuters.

Almost everywhere you looked, reporters and pundits equated the defeat of Trump-endorsed senatorial candidates in Pennsylvania, New Hampshire and potentially Arizona with a Trump thrashing. At least 10 gubernatorial candidates with the Trump brand burned into their hides fell, too, as did nearly equal number of House candidates, leaving Trump’s coattails soiled and tattered. Former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie spoke for the GOP’s old guard when he criticized the former president for possessing “political instincts” that favor himself, not the party or the country.

These headlines contained more wishful thinking by those who have tired of Trump — or are simply eager to put him in a headline — than acute political analysis. Trump, the original power of positive thinking candidate, sloughed off the defeat like a Gila monster shedding its skin. Instead of acknowledging the weak performances of the candidates he endorsed, Trump turned on one of his endorsees, Don Bolduc, the GOP’s New Hampshire Senate candidate, who went down. Bolduc lost, Trump wrote on Truth Social, because he disavowed his previous 2020-election-was-rigged stance. And he took solace in endorsees who did win — Ohio’s J.D. Vance, Alabama’s Katie Britt, Missouri’s Eric Schmitt and North Carolina’s Ted Budd — to salvage a Calvinball-style victory. (The Georgia Senate contest is headed for a runoff.)

But Trump’s 2022 embarrassment says little about his staying power as a candidate. As many have written, the alleged power of Trump endorsements was long exaggerated because he once spent them on surefire candidates. In 2022, he changed strategies, supporting nearly every political buffoon who worshipped at his stolen election grail, and paid the price. As FiveThirtyEight’s Nathaniel Rakich put it Tuesday morning, Trump attempted to beat sitting governors and members of Congress this go-round, a daunting task for any political kingmaker. So many of the Trump-supported candidates were either screwheads or politically damaged to begin with. The Trump gubernatorial candidate in Nebraska stood accused of unwanted sexual advances. Another was accused of hitting and groping a woman. Another was accused of rape. Trump might not have won on Election Night, Rakich notes, but he cleared the party of his critics, a victory of a sort if you don’t mind losing in the process.

Untested by the 2022 election is Trump’s viability as a presidential candidate in 2024. Only a fraction of the party faithful who supported him in December 2020 has peeled off. His ability to raise money remains solid. And victorious Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis — a likely top Trump contender for the nomination — has yet to prove an electoral appeal outside of his home state. Do you remember what a formidable presidential candidate Florida Gov. Jeb Bush was thought to be before he ran face-first into the Trump angle grinder in the 2015 primary debates? The ashes of the 2022 election have yet to turn cold. The press corps can’t afford to repeat the mistake it’s made time and again by underestimating Trump. Even Gila monsters have a few bad days.

That said, it’s true that Trump has never appeared to be politically weaker than he is at this moment. Reporters and columnists have sniffed this out, so it’s only natural that they’ve taken out their tape measures to properly dress him in a pinewood overcoat. But midterm elections are midterm elections — important to restock Congress and the various offices around the country but almost worthless in predicting a presidential aspirant’s immediate future.

How many times have we read that Trump is finished? That he’s gone too far this time? That the walls are finally closing in on him? Don’t be a chump. Never underestimate Donald Trump’s skill, like a horror movie brute, to rise from his demise to strike again. Don’t count him out.

Jack Torrance is my favorite horror movie brute. Yours? Send your nominations to [email protected]. No new email alert subscriptions are being honored at this time. My Twitter feed is always the perfect victim. My Mastodon account is a pitiful, neglected thing. My RSS feed says, “Redrum.”