New Poll Reveals Harris Leading in Key Blue Wall States
A recent survey of likely voters indicates that most respondents would choose her over Trump, believing she possesses qualities of honesty, intelligence, and suitability for governance.
TroibNews 
Vice President Kamala Harris is leading former President Donald Trump in three critical states vital for winning the 2024 election, according to a recent New York Times/Siena College poll released on Saturday.
Conducted between August 5-9, the poll surveyed likely voters in Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin about their preferences regarding Harris and Trump. If the election were held today, Harris would receive 50 percent support compared to Trump’s 46 percent—significantly better than President Joe Biden's earlier results against Trump in previous Times polling. When including third-party candidates and Robert F. Kennedy Jr., Harris holds a lead of 5 percentage points in Michigan, 2 points in Pennsylvania, and 6 points in Wisconsin, while Kennedy's support lingers at just 5 percent.
The latest poll indicates that not only has Harris closed the national gap against Trump, but she's also gaining traction in essential Blue Wall states, enjoying a momentum that has persisted for three weeks. The polling coincided with Harris energizing crowds during her rally tour in the Midwest alongside her new running mate, Minnesota Governor Tim Walz, who is still becoming familiar to voters. In contrast, Trump and his running mate, Senator JD Vance from Ohio, are finding it challenging to maintain a consistent message against their Democratic challengers.
The survey demonstrates that Harris is experiencing increased popularity among voters in all three states, while Trump has seen a slight uptick in favorability relative to previous Times/Siena polls.
Comparing Harris’ numbers in Pennsylvania from mid-July—just before Biden’s withdrawal—to the present, she has gained 8 percentage points among independent voters, reversing Trump’s previous 6-point lead. Moreover, she is closing the gap among white voters in Pennsylvania, receiving 47 percent support to Trump's 49 percent. The data from Michigan and Wisconsin similarly suggests that Harris is attracting more white voters compared to Biden.
In the overall likely electorate across the three states, Harris maintains a net-positive favorability rating, with 50 percent expressing a “somewhat” or “very” favorable opinion of her, while 53 percent view Trump as “somewhat unfavorable” or “very unfavorable.” Opinions on Harris' political agenda are mixed; 44 percent of likely voters consider her too liberal or progressive, while another 44 percent believe she sits comfortably between being too liberal and too moderate.
In a significant shift in the Democratic candidate's fortunes, Harris is not burdened by the traits that have made Biden an unpopular option for the 2024 ticket. A majority of likely voters perceive her as honest, intelligent, and capable of governance, as well as someone who can foster meaningful change for the country. Trump, while seen as having a clear vision, fares worse in these aspects, despite 60 percent of likely voters in the three states acknowledging that sentiment toward him is “very” or “somewhat” accurate.
Interestingly, 47 percent of likely voters responded that Trump would implement changes that would be "very bad" or "somewhat bad" for the country if elected, compared to 37 percent who felt similarly about Harris.
When compared to Times polling from May regarding a Biden-Trump matchup, more likely voters now place their trust in Harris concerning economic issues and abortion over Biden. The poll, largely conducted after Walz was named as Harris' running mate, reveals that 33 percent of likely voters have yet to hear of or form an opinion about him. However, he maintains a favorable view among 39 percent of likely voters, while 28 percent view him unfavorably, particularly resonating with voters aged 18-29—and has an edge over Vance among independent voters.
Additionally, Democratic candidates for Senate in each of the three states are leading their Republican opponents, with Senator Bob Casey ahead by 14 points in Pennsylvania, Senator Tammy Baldwin leading by 7 points in Wisconsin, and Representative Elissa Slotkin up by 3 points in Michigan.
The New York Times/Siena College poll recorded 1,973 likely voters, with a margin of error of plus or minus 2.6 percentage points when considering all states combined.
Olivia Brown contributed to this report for TROIB News
Conducted between August 5-9, the poll surveyed likely voters in Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin about their preferences regarding Harris and Trump. If the election were held today, Harris would receive 50 percent support compared to Trump’s 46 percent—significantly better than President Joe Biden's earlier results against Trump in previous Times polling. When including third-party candidates and Robert F. Kennedy Jr., Harris holds a lead of 5 percentage points in Michigan, 2 points in Pennsylvania, and 6 points in Wisconsin, while Kennedy's support lingers at just 5 percent.
The latest poll indicates that not only has Harris closed the national gap against Trump, but she's also gaining traction in essential Blue Wall states, enjoying a momentum that has persisted for three weeks. The polling coincided with Harris energizing crowds during her rally tour in the Midwest alongside her new running mate, Minnesota Governor Tim Walz, who is still becoming familiar to voters. In contrast, Trump and his running mate, Senator JD Vance from Ohio, are finding it challenging to maintain a consistent message against their Democratic challengers.
The survey demonstrates that Harris is experiencing increased popularity among voters in all three states, while Trump has seen a slight uptick in favorability relative to previous Times/Siena polls.
Comparing Harris’ numbers in Pennsylvania from mid-July—just before Biden’s withdrawal—to the present, she has gained 8 percentage points among independent voters, reversing Trump’s previous 6-point lead. Moreover, she is closing the gap among white voters in Pennsylvania, receiving 47 percent support to Trump's 49 percent. The data from Michigan and Wisconsin similarly suggests that Harris is attracting more white voters compared to Biden.
In the overall likely electorate across the three states, Harris maintains a net-positive favorability rating, with 50 percent expressing a “somewhat” or “very” favorable opinion of her, while 53 percent view Trump as “somewhat unfavorable” or “very unfavorable.” Opinions on Harris' political agenda are mixed; 44 percent of likely voters consider her too liberal or progressive, while another 44 percent believe she sits comfortably between being too liberal and too moderate.
In a significant shift in the Democratic candidate's fortunes, Harris is not burdened by the traits that have made Biden an unpopular option for the 2024 ticket. A majority of likely voters perceive her as honest, intelligent, and capable of governance, as well as someone who can foster meaningful change for the country. Trump, while seen as having a clear vision, fares worse in these aspects, despite 60 percent of likely voters in the three states acknowledging that sentiment toward him is “very” or “somewhat” accurate.
Interestingly, 47 percent of likely voters responded that Trump would implement changes that would be "very bad" or "somewhat bad" for the country if elected, compared to 37 percent who felt similarly about Harris.
When compared to Times polling from May regarding a Biden-Trump matchup, more likely voters now place their trust in Harris concerning economic issues and abortion over Biden. The poll, largely conducted after Walz was named as Harris' running mate, reveals that 33 percent of likely voters have yet to hear of or form an opinion about him. However, he maintains a favorable view among 39 percent of likely voters, while 28 percent view him unfavorably, particularly resonating with voters aged 18-29—and has an edge over Vance among independent voters.
Additionally, Democratic candidates for Senate in each of the three states are leading their Republican opponents, with Senator Bob Casey ahead by 14 points in Pennsylvania, Senator Tammy Baldwin leading by 7 points in Wisconsin, and Representative Elissa Slotkin up by 3 points in Michigan.
The New York Times/Siena College poll recorded 1,973 likely voters, with a margin of error of plus or minus 2.6 percentage points when considering all states combined.
Olivia Brown contributed to this report for TROIB News
