Kari Lake and Ruben Gallego Set for Showdown in Arizona Senate Race
The primaries on Tuesday were just the beginning. The general election campaign has already been in full swing for several months.
TroibNews 
One of the most anticipated Senate races of the year is now on the horizon: MAGA star Kari Lake will compete against Democratic Rep. Ruben Gallego in Arizona as the GOP seeks to regain influence in this pivotal battleground state.
Gallego and Lake each secured their party’s nomination on Tuesday for the Senate seat, now open following independent Sen. Kyrsten Sinema’s decision not to seek reelection. Gallego ran unopposed in his primary, while Lake overcame two challengers, including her nearest competitor, Pinal County Sheriff Mark Lamb.
The general election campaign has essentially been in motion for several months.
Gallego has been introducing himself to Arizona’s electorate statewide after serving Phoenix in the House for a decade. According to ad tracker AdImpact, Gallego has already spent upwards of $15 million on advertisements before the primary, with an additional $18 million allocated through November. His ads have largely been biographical, sharing his journey from being raised in a single-parent immigrant household to becoming a Marine.
Lake’s strategy has been notably different.
She has focused her airwave efforts on attacking Gallego over immigration, traditionally a vulnerable spot for Democrats. (Gallego has attempted to counter these assaults by emphasizing his work on the Southern border, a strategy uncommon among Democrats.) Most of Lake’s pre-primary ad spending — $2 million — has been coordinated with the National Republican Senatorial Committee, which has endorsed her. The campaign has also reserved $6 million in future ad spots.
Lake enjoys statewide recognition from her close but unsuccessful run for governor in 2022, where she lost to Democratic now-Gov. Katie Hobbs by less than a percentage point. Lake vehemently — and baselessly — denied the legitimacy of the election results for an extended period following her defeat.
Lake continues to propagate false claims that the 2020 and 2022 elections were stolen, often criticizing the media as “fake news.” When British journalist Emily Maitlis questioned her earlier this month regarding whether she would concede if she lost in November, Lake retorted that Maitlis needed her “head examined.”
In 2022, Lake rose to prominence as a close ally and surrogate for former President Donald Trump, even being considered for a vice presidential spot. Trump has endorsed her in both her gubernatorial and Senate races and participated in a tele-rally for her on the eve of Tuesday’s primary.
In recent years, Republicans have faced challenges in nominating candidates through primaries dominated by MAGA figures, who could win a general election. During the midterms, the party’s support for weaker general election nominees led to smaller-than-expected gains in Congress.
This year, the NRSC has played an active role in candidate recruitment and clearing primary fields to endorse the most electable contenders. This strategy has thus far worked favorably, resulting in minimal primary competition that might otherwise divert resources from the high-stakes general elections. With Lake’s primary victory appearing inevitable, national Republicans united behind her, hoping for a win come November.
Lake is now striving to broaden her appeal and win over establishment Republicans, some of whom still doubt her following her hard-right stance in previous years. (Gallego, who has a progressive record that Republicans spotlight, is similarly aiming to attract centrist voters.)
With the general election less than 100 days away, there are indications that Lake still faces significant challenges.
Lake excelled in fundraising after the 2022 election, bringing in millions as she pursued unsuccessful litigation claiming the race was rigged against her. However, she currently trails Gallego in fundraising.
As of early July, Gallego had almost four times more campaign funds than Lake, with $8.2 million to her $2.1 million. In the first 10 days of July, he raised over $1 million, while Lake received $325,000. Gallego also outperformed her in second-quarter fundraising, collecting $10.5 million compared to Lake's $4.3 million.
Messaging from Lamb's allies, who lost to Lake in the primary, could serve as a cautionary note: “Donald Trump needs a workhorse in the Senate, not a show horse,” noted a spot from the conservative group American Encore before the primary.
Gallego, a former state legislator, has been campaigning for the Senate seat since early last year when Sinema’s plans were still uncertain. If successful, Gallego would become Arizona's first Latino senator.
Republicans have encountered difficulties statewide in Arizona recently. In 2022, Republican Blake Masters lost to Democratic Sen. Mark Kelly by 5 points, and the Democrats captured the Senate seat in 2020 during a special election. President Joe Biden also narrowly won the state.
Arizona is again set to be a crucial player in both the presidential election and the battle for Senate control. Its role may become even more significant if Vice President Kamala Harris selects Sen. Kelly as her running mate.
Aarav Patel contributed to this report for TROIB News
Gallego and Lake each secured their party’s nomination on Tuesday for the Senate seat, now open following independent Sen. Kyrsten Sinema’s decision not to seek reelection. Gallego ran unopposed in his primary, while Lake overcame two challengers, including her nearest competitor, Pinal County Sheriff Mark Lamb.
The general election campaign has essentially been in motion for several months.
Gallego has been introducing himself to Arizona’s electorate statewide after serving Phoenix in the House for a decade. According to ad tracker AdImpact, Gallego has already spent upwards of $15 million on advertisements before the primary, with an additional $18 million allocated through November. His ads have largely been biographical, sharing his journey from being raised in a single-parent immigrant household to becoming a Marine.
Lake’s strategy has been notably different.
She has focused her airwave efforts on attacking Gallego over immigration, traditionally a vulnerable spot for Democrats. (Gallego has attempted to counter these assaults by emphasizing his work on the Southern border, a strategy uncommon among Democrats.) Most of Lake’s pre-primary ad spending — $2 million — has been coordinated with the National Republican Senatorial Committee, which has endorsed her. The campaign has also reserved $6 million in future ad spots.
Lake enjoys statewide recognition from her close but unsuccessful run for governor in 2022, where she lost to Democratic now-Gov. Katie Hobbs by less than a percentage point. Lake vehemently — and baselessly — denied the legitimacy of the election results for an extended period following her defeat.
Lake continues to propagate false claims that the 2020 and 2022 elections were stolen, often criticizing the media as “fake news.” When British journalist Emily Maitlis questioned her earlier this month regarding whether she would concede if she lost in November, Lake retorted that Maitlis needed her “head examined.”
In 2022, Lake rose to prominence as a close ally and surrogate for former President Donald Trump, even being considered for a vice presidential spot. Trump has endorsed her in both her gubernatorial and Senate races and participated in a tele-rally for her on the eve of Tuesday’s primary.
In recent years, Republicans have faced challenges in nominating candidates through primaries dominated by MAGA figures, who could win a general election. During the midterms, the party’s support for weaker general election nominees led to smaller-than-expected gains in Congress.
This year, the NRSC has played an active role in candidate recruitment and clearing primary fields to endorse the most electable contenders. This strategy has thus far worked favorably, resulting in minimal primary competition that might otherwise divert resources from the high-stakes general elections. With Lake’s primary victory appearing inevitable, national Republicans united behind her, hoping for a win come November.
Lake is now striving to broaden her appeal and win over establishment Republicans, some of whom still doubt her following her hard-right stance in previous years. (Gallego, who has a progressive record that Republicans spotlight, is similarly aiming to attract centrist voters.)
With the general election less than 100 days away, there are indications that Lake still faces significant challenges.
Lake excelled in fundraising after the 2022 election, bringing in millions as she pursued unsuccessful litigation claiming the race was rigged against her. However, she currently trails Gallego in fundraising.
As of early July, Gallego had almost four times more campaign funds than Lake, with $8.2 million to her $2.1 million. In the first 10 days of July, he raised over $1 million, while Lake received $325,000. Gallego also outperformed her in second-quarter fundraising, collecting $10.5 million compared to Lake's $4.3 million.
Messaging from Lamb's allies, who lost to Lake in the primary, could serve as a cautionary note: “Donald Trump needs a workhorse in the Senate, not a show horse,” noted a spot from the conservative group American Encore before the primary.
Gallego, a former state legislator, has been campaigning for the Senate seat since early last year when Sinema’s plans were still uncertain. If successful, Gallego would become Arizona's first Latino senator.
Republicans have encountered difficulties statewide in Arizona recently. In 2022, Republican Blake Masters lost to Democratic Sen. Mark Kelly by 5 points, and the Democrats captured the Senate seat in 2020 during a special election. President Joe Biden also narrowly won the state.
Arizona is again set to be a crucial player in both the presidential election and the battle for Senate control. Its role may become even more significant if Vice President Kamala Harris selects Sen. Kelly as her running mate.
Aarav Patel contributed to this report for TROIB News
