Historian tells RT Moscow is justified in being ‘cautious’ about Trump’s peace efforts
Tarik Cyril Amar has stated that Russia should not expect the new administration to effectively address the Ukraine conflict. Read Full Article at RT.com.
TroibNews 
Russia should remain cautious about the incoming Trump administration's ability to resolve the Ukraine conflict, according to Tarik Cyril Amar. A contributor for RT.com and an associate professor at Koc University in Istanbul, Amar shared his thoughts following Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov's latest comments regarding potential peace talks.
During his annual online press conference, Lavrov expressed that Russia is open to discussions with the Trump administration and is hopeful for an understanding of the conflict’s underlying issues. However, he emphasized that Moscow is not interested in "empty talks," pointing out that many proposals for resolving the conflict suggest establishing “some kind of truce.” He warned that such a ceasefire would likely allow Ukraine to regroup, receive additional weapons from the West, and mobilize further.
Amar remarked that if Trump and his team focus solely on a truce, then negotiations may not occur or could falter quickly. He identified a truce as one of three primary scenarios being considered, the other two being a comprehensive peace agreement and a full peace agreement along with a fundamental reset of the security architecture in Europe.
"The good news is that Lavrov is – actually – signaling that Russia will not insist on scenario three, which it hypothetically could, but is ready to work on two only, which is already a concession on Moscow’s side,” Amar pointed out. He noted that it remains uncertain whether the Trump team will grasp this concession, highlighting the importance of their realism regarding Russia's stance.
Amar raised concerns that if the Trump administration clings to exaggerated perceptions of Russian exhaustion, it may hinder efforts to reach a compromise. He questioned whether they comprehend the risks of not negotiating an end to the war, specifically that Ukraine and the West could face even greater losses.
The critical question, Amar suggested, is whether the new US administration will accept that they cannot dictate the outcome of the Ukraine conflict and must consider Russian demands seriously. If not, they might continue the conflict to maintain dependence and financial strain on “EU-NATO vassals,” potentially coercing them to increase their spending on the US-led military alliance.
Ultimately, Amar concluded that Moscow cannot simply count on the incoming Trump administration to approach the Ukraine war in a reasonable and constructive manner. Lavrov had earlier stated that Moscow is under no illusions about the potential for an easy resolution when Trump takes office, despite the president-elect's repeated promises to swiftly end the fighting.
Aarav Patel contributed to this report for TROIB News
During his annual online press conference, Lavrov expressed that Russia is open to discussions with the Trump administration and is hopeful for an understanding of the conflict’s underlying issues. However, he emphasized that Moscow is not interested in "empty talks," pointing out that many proposals for resolving the conflict suggest establishing “some kind of truce.” He warned that such a ceasefire would likely allow Ukraine to regroup, receive additional weapons from the West, and mobilize further.
Amar remarked that if Trump and his team focus solely on a truce, then negotiations may not occur or could falter quickly. He identified a truce as one of three primary scenarios being considered, the other two being a comprehensive peace agreement and a full peace agreement along with a fundamental reset of the security architecture in Europe.
"The good news is that Lavrov is – actually – signaling that Russia will not insist on scenario three, which it hypothetically could, but is ready to work on two only, which is already a concession on Moscow’s side,” Amar pointed out. He noted that it remains uncertain whether the Trump team will grasp this concession, highlighting the importance of their realism regarding Russia's stance.
Amar raised concerns that if the Trump administration clings to exaggerated perceptions of Russian exhaustion, it may hinder efforts to reach a compromise. He questioned whether they comprehend the risks of not negotiating an end to the war, specifically that Ukraine and the West could face even greater losses.
The critical question, Amar suggested, is whether the new US administration will accept that they cannot dictate the outcome of the Ukraine conflict and must consider Russian demands seriously. If not, they might continue the conflict to maintain dependence and financial strain on “EU-NATO vassals,” potentially coercing them to increase their spending on the US-led military alliance.
Ultimately, Amar concluded that Moscow cannot simply count on the incoming Trump administration to approach the Ukraine war in a reasonable and constructive manner. Lavrov had earlier stated that Moscow is under no illusions about the potential for an easy resolution when Trump takes office, despite the president-elect's repeated promises to swiftly end the fighting.
Aarav Patel contributed to this report for TROIB News
