Experts Say: Prolonged Path to Russia-Ukraine Ceasefire Following Riyadh Discussions
The U.S., Russia, and Ukraine each released separate statements highlighting their distinct internal priorities during the Riyadh talks. Experts informed CN that achieving a genuine ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine remains a challenging task ahead.
TroibNews 
Technical-level negotiations concerning a potential ceasefire in Ukraine, which took place over three days in Riyadh, concluded on Tuesday without the issuance of an official joint statement. Experts interpret this as a sign that a genuine ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine remains a distant prospect, given the differing demands and priorities of the three involved parties: the U.S., Russia, and Ukraine.
"U.S. President Donald Trump wants to end this matter that happened during the former President Joe Biden's term as soon as possible to reduce the U.S. investment in this matter and the burden on Americans. Meanwhile, Russia's demands are certainly not a simple ceasefire. Russia not only wants to end the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, but also to solve the problems of NATO's eastward expansion and the post-war order in Europe," stated Wang Yiwei, a professor at the School of International Studies at Renmin University of China.
Cui Hongjian, a professor at the Academy of Regional and Global Governance at Beijing Foreign Studies University, observed that the lack of a joint statement indicates a significant divide between Russia and Ukraine regarding ceasefire terms. He pointed out that Ukraine is wary of a U.S.-Russia compromise that might come at its expense, which is evident in its emphasis on the potential negative ramifications of a ceasefire in the Black Sea. Conversely, Russia views a Black Sea ceasefire as a way to achieve larger objectives, including pressuring the West to relax or lift sanctions, further deepening Ukraine's apprehensions.
The ongoing fierce fighting between Russia and Ukraine suggests that neither side is prepared to agree to a temporary ceasefire. "A temporary ceasefire is not just a technical arrangement; it must serve as a foundation for a broader or long-term peace. Otherwise, its impact on resolving the overall Russia-Ukraine conflict will be minimal," added Cui.
Intensive interactions between U.S. officials and delegations from Ukraine and Russia characterized the negotiations, including a lengthy 12-hour meeting between U.S. and Russian representatives on Monday and two shorter meetings with Ukrainian officials on Sunday and Tuesday, all taking place amid active conflict on the ground.
While Washington expressed a willingness to support the continuation of negotiations, analysts remain doubtful about the likelihood of achieving diplomatic progress due to entrenched distrust, conflicting interests, and the complex nature of the situation.
Conflicting assessments
"The fundamental cause of the current deadlock lies in America's biased approach to mediation – one that failed to address the concerns of both Russia and Ukraine, ignored the stakes of other affected parties, and underestimated the historical intricacies and complexity of the Ukraine crisis," remarked Kang Jie, an associate research fellow at the China Institute of International Studies.
According to Kang, the U.S. has mistakenly assumed it could swiftly negotiate a ceasefire through a great-power agreement, disregarding the interests of smaller nations and reflecting the notion that "Haste breeds failure." He noted that the ceasefire in the Ukraine crisis represents only the "beginning of the end," while substantial negotiations for a lasting resolution seem nowhere in sight. Progress toward a durable agreement can only be made when all directly involved parties and stakeholders are included in the negotiation process, he asserted.
On Tuesday, following the conclusion of negotiations between the U.S. and Ukrainian delegations, the White House released separate statements outlining its interpretation of the talks. It asserted that the U.S. had agreed separately with both Russia and Ukraine to "ensure safe navigation, eliminate the use of force, and prevent the use of commercial vessels for military purposes in the Black Sea," as well as to develop measures in line with the presidents' agreement to "ban strikes against energy facilities of Russia and Ukraine."
The U.S. also stated that it, along with Russia and Ukraine, "welcomes the good offices of third countries with a view toward supporting the implementation of the energy and maritime agreements" and affirmed its commitment to "continue working toward achieving a durable and lasting peace."
From the outcomes of discussions with Russia, the U.S. pledged to assist in restoring Russia's access to global markets for agricultural and fertilizer exports, reduce maritime insurance costs, and improve port access and payment systems for such transactions. In the discussions with Ukraine, both parties reiterated the United States' dedication to facilitating the exchange of prisoners of war, ensuring the release of civilian detainees, and securing the return of forcibly transferred Ukrainian children.
Simultaneously, the Kremlin indicated that Russia and the U.S. had agreed to uphold the implementation of the Black Sea Initiative, contingent upon the easing of sanctions on Russia's agricultural and food trade. Russia also demanded the lifting of restrictions on its food and fertilizer producers and exporters and requested servicing for related Russian-flagged vessels in ports, as well as the supply of agricultural machinery to Russia.
A long road to a real ceasefire
"The U.S. issued a statement immediately showing that it is very eager to show its mediation achievements. The Russian side did not issue a statement at the first time, which indicates that the two sides have not yet reached a complete agreement on the specific method of partially lifting sanctions. Russia hopes to continue to put pressure on the U.S. in this way," explained Kang.
He noted that the Black Sea has become less critical strategically for both Russia and Ukraine, creating a common interest in reaching a compromise, though he warned that this compromise remains fragile. For instance, there may be disagreements regarding the definition of military operations in the Black Sea region, the means to secure a ceasefire, and the assignment of responsibility for any ceasefire violations.
"In fact, there are still many specific issues. Now Russia and Ukraine cannot negotiate directly. I think it is difficult to achieve a real ceasefire by relying on the United States to pass messages in the middle," asserted Cui. He recommended that the U.S. should actively promote face-to-face negotiations between Russia and Ukraine, adding that the two nations are currently responding to U.S. pressure rather than genuinely seeking to reach an agreement.
"If they really want to reach a consensus as soon as possible, the first thing is to take the initiative to reduce military confrontation. That is, both sides should have a common will, just like what the United States said to truly begin to turn to a peaceful solution," Cui suggested, emphasizing the need for additional measures that do not solely rely on U.S. leadership in negotiations.
He also advocated for Europe to take on a more proactive role in the negotiation process rather than remaining passively aligned with Ukraine while continuing to support the conflict. "Russia and Ukraine are still very far away from a true ceasefire," Cui concluded.
Emily Johnson for TROIB News
"U.S. President Donald Trump wants to end this matter that happened during the former President Joe Biden's term as soon as possible to reduce the U.S. investment in this matter and the burden on Americans. Meanwhile, Russia's demands are certainly not a simple ceasefire. Russia not only wants to end the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, but also to solve the problems of NATO's eastward expansion and the post-war order in Europe," stated Wang Yiwei, a professor at the School of International Studies at Renmin University of China.
Cui Hongjian, a professor at the Academy of Regional and Global Governance at Beijing Foreign Studies University, observed that the lack of a joint statement indicates a significant divide between Russia and Ukraine regarding ceasefire terms. He pointed out that Ukraine is wary of a U.S.-Russia compromise that might come at its expense, which is evident in its emphasis on the potential negative ramifications of a ceasefire in the Black Sea. Conversely, Russia views a Black Sea ceasefire as a way to achieve larger objectives, including pressuring the West to relax or lift sanctions, further deepening Ukraine's apprehensions.
The ongoing fierce fighting between Russia and Ukraine suggests that neither side is prepared to agree to a temporary ceasefire. "A temporary ceasefire is not just a technical arrangement; it must serve as a foundation for a broader or long-term peace. Otherwise, its impact on resolving the overall Russia-Ukraine conflict will be minimal," added Cui.
Intensive interactions between U.S. officials and delegations from Ukraine and Russia characterized the negotiations, including a lengthy 12-hour meeting between U.S. and Russian representatives on Monday and two shorter meetings with Ukrainian officials on Sunday and Tuesday, all taking place amid active conflict on the ground.
While Washington expressed a willingness to support the continuation of negotiations, analysts remain doubtful about the likelihood of achieving diplomatic progress due to entrenched distrust, conflicting interests, and the complex nature of the situation.
Conflicting assessments
"The fundamental cause of the current deadlock lies in America's biased approach to mediation – one that failed to address the concerns of both Russia and Ukraine, ignored the stakes of other affected parties, and underestimated the historical intricacies and complexity of the Ukraine crisis," remarked Kang Jie, an associate research fellow at the China Institute of International Studies.
According to Kang, the U.S. has mistakenly assumed it could swiftly negotiate a ceasefire through a great-power agreement, disregarding the interests of smaller nations and reflecting the notion that "Haste breeds failure." He noted that the ceasefire in the Ukraine crisis represents only the "beginning of the end," while substantial negotiations for a lasting resolution seem nowhere in sight. Progress toward a durable agreement can only be made when all directly involved parties and stakeholders are included in the negotiation process, he asserted.
On Tuesday, following the conclusion of negotiations between the U.S. and Ukrainian delegations, the White House released separate statements outlining its interpretation of the talks. It asserted that the U.S. had agreed separately with both Russia and Ukraine to "ensure safe navigation, eliminate the use of force, and prevent the use of commercial vessels for military purposes in the Black Sea," as well as to develop measures in line with the presidents' agreement to "ban strikes against energy facilities of Russia and Ukraine."
The U.S. also stated that it, along with Russia and Ukraine, "welcomes the good offices of third countries with a view toward supporting the implementation of the energy and maritime agreements" and affirmed its commitment to "continue working toward achieving a durable and lasting peace."
From the outcomes of discussions with Russia, the U.S. pledged to assist in restoring Russia's access to global markets for agricultural and fertilizer exports, reduce maritime insurance costs, and improve port access and payment systems for such transactions. In the discussions with Ukraine, both parties reiterated the United States' dedication to facilitating the exchange of prisoners of war, ensuring the release of civilian detainees, and securing the return of forcibly transferred Ukrainian children.
Simultaneously, the Kremlin indicated that Russia and the U.S. had agreed to uphold the implementation of the Black Sea Initiative, contingent upon the easing of sanctions on Russia's agricultural and food trade. Russia also demanded the lifting of restrictions on its food and fertilizer producers and exporters and requested servicing for related Russian-flagged vessels in ports, as well as the supply of agricultural machinery to Russia.
A long road to a real ceasefire
"The U.S. issued a statement immediately showing that it is very eager to show its mediation achievements. The Russian side did not issue a statement at the first time, which indicates that the two sides have not yet reached a complete agreement on the specific method of partially lifting sanctions. Russia hopes to continue to put pressure on the U.S. in this way," explained Kang.
He noted that the Black Sea has become less critical strategically for both Russia and Ukraine, creating a common interest in reaching a compromise, though he warned that this compromise remains fragile. For instance, there may be disagreements regarding the definition of military operations in the Black Sea region, the means to secure a ceasefire, and the assignment of responsibility for any ceasefire violations.
"In fact, there are still many specific issues. Now Russia and Ukraine cannot negotiate directly. I think it is difficult to achieve a real ceasefire by relying on the United States to pass messages in the middle," asserted Cui. He recommended that the U.S. should actively promote face-to-face negotiations between Russia and Ukraine, adding that the two nations are currently responding to U.S. pressure rather than genuinely seeking to reach an agreement.
"If they really want to reach a consensus as soon as possible, the first thing is to take the initiative to reduce military confrontation. That is, both sides should have a common will, just like what the United States said to truly begin to turn to a peaceful solution," Cui suggested, emphasizing the need for additional measures that do not solely rely on U.S. leadership in negotiations.
He also advocated for Europe to take on a more proactive role in the negotiation process rather than remaining passively aligned with Ukraine while continuing to support the conflict. "Russia and Ukraine are still very far away from a true ceasefire," Cui concluded.
Emily Johnson for TROIB News
