Biden boosts US climate goals before Trump assumes office

The president reinforced America's dedication to reducing climate pollution as outlined in the Paris Agreement, aware that this commitment might be rescinded when President-elect Donald Trump assumes office next month.

Biden boosts US climate goals before Trump assumes office
President Joe Biden announced on Thursday a new goal to enhance the United States’ climate target, aiming for a reduction of planet-warming pollution by 61-66 percent by 2035. This initiative comes despite the expectation that his successor will likely disregard it.

This new target represents an escalation from Biden's 2021 commitment to cut greenhouse gases by 50-52 percent by 2030 based on 2005 levels. However, it falls short of the more ambitious reductions that experts suggest could be achieved with a future president who aggressively addresses climate change.

President-elect Donald Trump has indicated he would oppose such measures.

The incoming administration may dismiss this target, reflecting Trump's intention to ramp up fossil fuel production and dismantle Biden’s climate initiatives.

While the new climate target might be overlooked by Trump, it provides a bold benchmark for states, cities, and businesses to strive for, even amid potential federal rollbacks in climate policy. “President Biden's new 2035 climate goal is both a reflection of what we've already accomplished … and what we believe the United States can and should achieve in the future,” stated John Podesta, a senior White House adviser for international climate policy, during a call with reporters.

The announcement comes as calls intensify for Biden to make urgent environmental commitments in the final days of his presidency, regardless of Trump's future stance. U.S. officials assert that this target sends a significant global message about America’s potential response to climate challenges.

“American industry will keep inventing and keep investing. State, local and tribal governments will keep stepping up,” Biden remarked in a prerecorded video announcement.

The target also includes a commitment to at least a 35 percent reduction in methane emissions, a potent greenhouse gas that the Biden administration has prioritized through various regulations and global agreements. "We're looking to governors, mayors, business leaders and more to carry this important work forward,” Podesta remarked.

These targets, referred to as nationally determined contributions (NDCs), are mandated under the Paris Agreement, a global pact aimed at limiting warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius since the industrial era. The White House indicated that it would submit the new target to the United Nations’ climate change secretariat, while Trump is anticipated to withdraw from the agreement.

'A North Star' Observers have noted that this new target exemplifies the capability of the world’s largest economy to take action on climate change, regardless of federal involvement. “The 2035 climate target can serve as a North Star for states, cities and corporations that are committed to climate action,” said Manish Bapna, president of the Natural Resources Defense Council, in a statement.

Other advocates echoed this perspective, suggesting it could shape federal policies beyond 2028 or whenever a climate-focused president takes office. “The 2035 emissions reduction target is at the lower bound of what the science demands, and yet it is close to the upper bound of what is realistic if nearly every available policy lever were pulled,” commented Debbie Weyl, acting U.S. director at the World Resources Institute.

A fact sheet released alongside the announcement suggested that these reductions in climate pollution could be achieved through a combination of existing Biden-era policies, enhanced state and local actions, and technological advancements including more affordable wind and solar energy, nuclear power, and upgraded power grids.

However, reaching these targets will be challenging. A bipartisan effort in Congress to simplify permitting rules to expedite renewable energy projects has not yet come to fruition. While the Biden administration recently approved California’s strategy to phase out gas-powered vehicles by 2035, Trump has indicated plans to reverse this decision.

Members of the U.S. Climate Alliance, largely comprised of Democratic states, are projected to achieve a 26 to 28 percent reduction in greenhouse gases by next year, yet the country is not on track to meet Biden’s original 2030 emissions reduction goal of 50 percent. “No one's hiding the ball on that. Our analysis is very clear that additional action is needed to achieve our 2030 target, but that there is a clear pathway to do so,” noted Casey Katims, executive director of the U.S. Climate Alliance.

Achieving the new target will also hinge on private sector investments. The clean energy tax incentives from Biden's Inflation Reduction Act have generated billions for clean energy manufacturing across the nation. However, these policies face threats from Trump and congressional Republicans who are targeting government rebates that help reduce the cost of electric vehicles and other clean energy incentives.

“Even discussion of repeal and tweaks or cuts have a chilling effect and delay and reduce the pace and scale of investment,” stated Zach Friedman, senior director of federal policy at Ceres, a business sustainability organization. “Tweaks to tax credits, timelines, restrictions, etc., have big implications for the amount of investment that comes back to American communities.”

Before the election, modeling conducted by the University of Maryland’s Center for Global Sustainability suggested that the U.S. could potentially achieve emissions reductions of 65-67 percent by 2035, with similar findings from other studies. Such reductions would align the nation on a path toward achieving net-zero emissions by 2050. However, reaching this target would necessitate additional actions at various levels of government.

An updated policy brief released this week by the Center for Global Sustainability indicates a projection of 54-62 percent cuts based on the absence of further federal intervention, with additional reductions at the state level.

Senior administration officials spoke with reporters to provide context for the announcement, stating that analyses demonstrate the feasibility of cutting pollution even in the absence of vigorous federal action, albeit with greater difficulty. “The pace is of course an issue,” one official acknowledged.

Robbie Orvis, senior director of modeling and analysis at Energy Innovation, emphasized that achieving the proposed target would indeed require states to enhance and implement policies at a level previously unseen.

Alternative assessments have presented potentially adverse outcomes. Energy Innovation estimates that U.S. emissions could decrease by only 36 percent by 2035 if the Inflation Reduction Act is fully repealed. The Rhodium Group projected reductions ranging between 24-40 percent, considering the rollback of federal climate regulations and complete repeal of the Inflation Reduction Act, without accounting for state-level initiatives.

Analysts believe that a total repeal of the Inflation Reduction Act is unlikely, particularly as its benefits broaden across the country. Nonetheless, even with the Inflation Reduction Act in place, the U.S. is still not on track to meet its 2030 goal of cutting emissions by 50-52 percent, Biden's initial target. A July analysis from the Rhodium Group found that the U.S. is projected to reduce its climate pollution by 32-43 percent by 2030, leading to a path of 38-56 percent reductions by 2035.

Biden's new target serves as a significant indication of intentions, according to Alden Meyer, a senior associate at the environmental think tank E3G. “Everyone understands it’s going to be very hard to meet this target, given Trump will take us off the field for the next four years,” Meyer observed. “But they understand it for what it is — what the U.S. should be doing.”

Max Fischer for TROIB News