Behind the Blue Wall: Trump’s Concessions, Harris's Equilibrium Effort
The outcome of the presidential election on Tuesday will hinge on less than 100,000 voters across three states in the Great Lakes region.
TroibNews 
**NOVI, Michigan** — In the aftermath of the chaotic modern American presidential election, the focus now shifts to the pivotal states that have dictated the outcomes of the last three White House contests.
Vice President Kamala Harris is banking on her extensive anti-Trump coalition being both broad and motivated enough to navigate the challenging political landscape. In contrast, former President Donald Trump is betting that the fragile nature of this coalition, amid a global surge of anti-establishment sentiment, will ultimately lead to Harris' downfall.
After a tumultuous summer that included a shocking assassination attempt on one candidate and the ousting of another in a parliamentary coup, the 2024 campaign seems destined to hinge on the choices of less than 100,000 voters in Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania.
Trump has been attempting to exploit widespread dissatisfaction with current conditions. His strategy involves delivering rehearsed remarks echoing Ronald Reagan's sentiment about whether voters are better off than they were four years prior. He also dangles enticing proposals like subsidized IVF treatments and tax-free tips, resembling a sweepstakes with as much likelihood of materializing as Ed McMahon showing up on your doorstep.
However, playing the provocateur has proven to be Trump's forte as he seeks to destabilize Harris' alliance. Case in point: last weekend in a suburban Detroit setting, Trump took photos with Muslim imams and invited them on stage, many donned in clerical attire. This act swiftly spread through Michigan's Arab community, prompting prominent figures to question why Harris wasn’t similarly supportive of Muslims, as relayed by informed Michigan lawmakers.
It's worth noting that, even as Trump welcomed the imams, some of his supporters outside were expressing hopes that he would “get rid of immigrants.” Moreover, Trump had previously called for a Muslim ban during his first campaign. Despite this history, he is now actively pursuing Arab votes in Michigan—an essential state for Harris in her quest for the necessary 270 electoral votes.
Sometimes, Trump makes his intentions explicit. During a recent visit to New Mexico—a state unlikely to turn Republican—he stated: “I’m here for one very simple reason: I like you very much, and it’s good for my credentials with the Hispanic or Latino community.”
However, a particularly impactful moment aimed at dividing Harris' coalition came not from Trump's words but from an advertisement featuring clips from Charlamagne tha God’s show discussing Harris' support for a California law that subsidizes sex change operations for inmates. “Hell no, I don’t want my taxpayer dollars going to that,” Charlamagne asserts in the ad, which has resonated strongly within the African American community; focus groups of Black men have reportedly echoed parts of it verbatim.
The Trump era has conferred upon Democrats a cumbersome yet effective coalition, enabling them to secure the presidency, governorships, and congressional majorities. Conversely, the challenge lies in uniting a diverse electorate that largely agrees on one thing: their aversion to Trump. As they now hold the presidency, the complexities of governance have only intensified these tensions.
For example, Harris’ willingness to campaign alongside Liz Cheney is contrasted by her reluctance to firmly pledge a centrist governance approach out of fear of alienating progressive supporters.
This uneasy alliance is further complicated by soaring inflation, an unpopular incumbent who lingered in the race until the summer before seeking reelection, and the lingering post-Covid malaise affecting voters worldwide—all factors contributing to Trump's potential success. The allure of a strongman figure who engages in scapegoating, especially of migrants, resonates with a segment of the electorate, reflecting a tactic that has become distressingly normalized in contemporary Republican discourse.
Unless Harris can secure victories in a couple of Sun Belt states, Trump's path to 270 electoral votes appears more straightforward: he only needs to succeed in one of the three critical Great Lakes states.
Nevertheless, Trump might still face defeat when all ballots are counted on Tuesday—or whenever the final tally is concluded—and much of that outcome could, ironically, be attributed to his own actions.
While Harris and her senior aides, including Jen O'Malley Dillon, have crafted a resilient campaign under difficult circumstances—organizing an effective convention, delivering strong debate performances, and keeping the race competitive—Democrats continue to rely on an enduring advantage that emerged from early special elections in 2017: a suburban backlash against Trump.
Let’s be clear: the primary factor keeping Democrats in contention this election cycle is the nomination of a candidate who alienates many with his rhetoric and policies, particularly those affecting women’s rights.
Trump's continuous inflammatory remarks—a litany of remarks threatening his opponents, claiming he will protect women regardless of their preferences, and labeling the 2020 insurrection as "a day of love"—only serve to make him a nonstarter for many voters, and bumbling attempts to downplay his “mean tweets” fail to sway sentiments.
In addition to his rhetoric, the former president grapples with criminal charges and allegations of sexual misconduct, factors coupled with the overturning of Roe v. Wade, which may drastically motivate female voter turnout against him.
Following a Harris rally in Philadelphia, Rep. Mary Gay Scanlon expressed optimism about Harris' potential for a significant victory, especially among female voters: “We knock a lot of doors...and especially see it around the gender gap,” she noted, highlighting the vocal support from women encountered during canvassing.
Trump's political missteps also extend to omissions. He hesitates to reach out to Nikki Haley for support due to her previous criticisms, leading to a lack of collaboration during vital campaign moments. Instead, he appears to prefer appearances with less strategic allies who contribute little to his efforts to win over critical voter segments.
Interestingly, Kennedy's continued presence on the ballot may end up being a crucial factor. Trump's campaign may unwittingly find that Kennedy siphoning votes poses a greater threat than anticipated, potentially aiding Harris more than he could help his own efforts.
The key question, as articulated by former Rep. Charlie Dent, a Republican supporting Harris, is whether she can “run up the score in the suburbs of Philadelphia, Pittsburgh, Allentown and Harrisburg to offset Trump’s gains in rural areas and smaller cities.”
In the 2020 election, Biden secured the four suburban Philadelphia counties by a total of 19 points. The challenge ahead for Harris is clear: can she not only maintain this margin but also increase turnout, particularly if Philadelphia's participation wanes?
At the Philadelphia Democratic Party headquarters, former Congressman Robert Brady was acutely aware of the stakes at hand. "I’m breaking balls to find more money,” he stated, admitting his willingness to “take a fucking mortgage out, I can’t let this fucking guy become president.”
Next to him, his young aide, Gianni Hill, analyzed the numbers.
Hill highlighted the margin Harris would need to emerge victorious in Pennsylvania: “If we are looking at 450 [thousand], it’s going to be tight...if it’s above 500 [thousand] they’re calling p-a.”
Mark B Thomas contributed to this report for TROIB News
Vice President Kamala Harris is banking on her extensive anti-Trump coalition being both broad and motivated enough to navigate the challenging political landscape. In contrast, former President Donald Trump is betting that the fragile nature of this coalition, amid a global surge of anti-establishment sentiment, will ultimately lead to Harris' downfall.
After a tumultuous summer that included a shocking assassination attempt on one candidate and the ousting of another in a parliamentary coup, the 2024 campaign seems destined to hinge on the choices of less than 100,000 voters in Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania.
Trump has been attempting to exploit widespread dissatisfaction with current conditions. His strategy involves delivering rehearsed remarks echoing Ronald Reagan's sentiment about whether voters are better off than they were four years prior. He also dangles enticing proposals like subsidized IVF treatments and tax-free tips, resembling a sweepstakes with as much likelihood of materializing as Ed McMahon showing up on your doorstep.
However, playing the provocateur has proven to be Trump's forte as he seeks to destabilize Harris' alliance. Case in point: last weekend in a suburban Detroit setting, Trump took photos with Muslim imams and invited them on stage, many donned in clerical attire. This act swiftly spread through Michigan's Arab community, prompting prominent figures to question why Harris wasn’t similarly supportive of Muslims, as relayed by informed Michigan lawmakers.
It's worth noting that, even as Trump welcomed the imams, some of his supporters outside were expressing hopes that he would “get rid of immigrants.” Moreover, Trump had previously called for a Muslim ban during his first campaign. Despite this history, he is now actively pursuing Arab votes in Michigan—an essential state for Harris in her quest for the necessary 270 electoral votes.
Sometimes, Trump makes his intentions explicit. During a recent visit to New Mexico—a state unlikely to turn Republican—he stated: “I’m here for one very simple reason: I like you very much, and it’s good for my credentials with the Hispanic or Latino community.”
However, a particularly impactful moment aimed at dividing Harris' coalition came not from Trump's words but from an advertisement featuring clips from Charlamagne tha God’s show discussing Harris' support for a California law that subsidizes sex change operations for inmates. “Hell no, I don’t want my taxpayer dollars going to that,” Charlamagne asserts in the ad, which has resonated strongly within the African American community; focus groups of Black men have reportedly echoed parts of it verbatim.
The Trump era has conferred upon Democrats a cumbersome yet effective coalition, enabling them to secure the presidency, governorships, and congressional majorities. Conversely, the challenge lies in uniting a diverse electorate that largely agrees on one thing: their aversion to Trump. As they now hold the presidency, the complexities of governance have only intensified these tensions.
For example, Harris’ willingness to campaign alongside Liz Cheney is contrasted by her reluctance to firmly pledge a centrist governance approach out of fear of alienating progressive supporters.
This uneasy alliance is further complicated by soaring inflation, an unpopular incumbent who lingered in the race until the summer before seeking reelection, and the lingering post-Covid malaise affecting voters worldwide—all factors contributing to Trump's potential success. The allure of a strongman figure who engages in scapegoating, especially of migrants, resonates with a segment of the electorate, reflecting a tactic that has become distressingly normalized in contemporary Republican discourse.
Unless Harris can secure victories in a couple of Sun Belt states, Trump's path to 270 electoral votes appears more straightforward: he only needs to succeed in one of the three critical Great Lakes states.
Nevertheless, Trump might still face defeat when all ballots are counted on Tuesday—or whenever the final tally is concluded—and much of that outcome could, ironically, be attributed to his own actions.
While Harris and her senior aides, including Jen O'Malley Dillon, have crafted a resilient campaign under difficult circumstances—organizing an effective convention, delivering strong debate performances, and keeping the race competitive—Democrats continue to rely on an enduring advantage that emerged from early special elections in 2017: a suburban backlash against Trump.
Let’s be clear: the primary factor keeping Democrats in contention this election cycle is the nomination of a candidate who alienates many with his rhetoric and policies, particularly those affecting women’s rights.
Trump's continuous inflammatory remarks—a litany of remarks threatening his opponents, claiming he will protect women regardless of their preferences, and labeling the 2020 insurrection as "a day of love"—only serve to make him a nonstarter for many voters, and bumbling attempts to downplay his “mean tweets” fail to sway sentiments.
In addition to his rhetoric, the former president grapples with criminal charges and allegations of sexual misconduct, factors coupled with the overturning of Roe v. Wade, which may drastically motivate female voter turnout against him.
Following a Harris rally in Philadelphia, Rep. Mary Gay Scanlon expressed optimism about Harris' potential for a significant victory, especially among female voters: “We knock a lot of doors...and especially see it around the gender gap,” she noted, highlighting the vocal support from women encountered during canvassing.
Trump's political missteps also extend to omissions. He hesitates to reach out to Nikki Haley for support due to her previous criticisms, leading to a lack of collaboration during vital campaign moments. Instead, he appears to prefer appearances with less strategic allies who contribute little to his efforts to win over critical voter segments.
Interestingly, Kennedy's continued presence on the ballot may end up being a crucial factor. Trump's campaign may unwittingly find that Kennedy siphoning votes poses a greater threat than anticipated, potentially aiding Harris more than he could help his own efforts.
The key question, as articulated by former Rep. Charlie Dent, a Republican supporting Harris, is whether she can “run up the score in the suburbs of Philadelphia, Pittsburgh, Allentown and Harrisburg to offset Trump’s gains in rural areas and smaller cities.”
In the 2020 election, Biden secured the four suburban Philadelphia counties by a total of 19 points. The challenge ahead for Harris is clear: can she not only maintain this margin but also increase turnout, particularly if Philadelphia's participation wanes?
At the Philadelphia Democratic Party headquarters, former Congressman Robert Brady was acutely aware of the stakes at hand. "I’m breaking balls to find more money,” he stated, admitting his willingness to “take a fucking mortgage out, I can’t let this fucking guy become president.”
Next to him, his young aide, Gianni Hill, analyzed the numbers.
Hill highlighted the margin Harris would need to emerge victorious in Pennsylvania: “If we are looking at 450 [thousand], it’s going to be tight...if it’s above 500 [thousand] they’re calling p-a.”
Mark B Thomas contributed to this report for TROIB News
